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Equity 1Q Results
stonemimi
#1 Posted : Thursday, May 21, 2009 8:11:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/16/2009
Posts: 145
They are out this afternoon. The share price facing down. Any predictions?

Happiness is not a right - except for children. You won't be happy if you think too much. The search of happiness is one cause os sorrow.
mv ufanisi
#2 Posted : Thursday, May 21, 2009 8:20:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
Most likely the share price won't move by much or will go down. The NSE is having issues of lack of trust and depressed investor interest. I think this share will settle at Kshs 13 to 14 even if EB profit goes up by more than 50% - highly unlikely
underweight
#3 Posted : Thursday, May 21, 2009 7:16:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
1st Qtr is up 29%. Not so bad for a diehard shareholders. However considering that the comparison is done basing on 1st Qtr 08 which experienced a lot of challenges. Therefore the results can be said to be dismal or worse declined in comparison to last Qtr...The price will definately head south au sio!
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
luxel
#4 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 5:07:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2008
Posts: 152
They are finally running out of tricks. Can you imagine with all the safaricom ipo loans,they want us to belief that their loan loss provision is only kshs.54 million. The whole of last year they provided for kshs.1 Billion.

Assuming they made a reasonable provision of kshs.360M then the reasonable Q1 profit should be kshs.800M. This does not look good.
mwanahisa
#5 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 5:10:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
The results are OK but dissapointing. I expect the results to be interpreted that Equity has now come to the end of its super rapid growth phase. All along that has been the reason why it has commanded a much higher PE than other banks. Note that Equity has now been overtaken from being the fastest growing among the listed banks by banks such as Diamond Trust which grew their PAT by 36% in Q1 against Equity's 26%.

The growth trajectory may slow even further if not dissapear altogether in the 2nd Qtr given the very huge contribution of the Safaricom IPO to Equity's Q208 results. I would expect Equity to trade at a lower PE within a range of 10 to 13 under the current economic conditions down from 14,although ocassional speculative pressures could push it to 15 but this can now not be sustained for long.


Opportunity calls but few respond.
sheep
#6 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 7:23:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
Good results...revenues grew by 52% and interest income grew by 89%,but operating expenses up 69%.51 branches yet to break even and already has 36 branches in UG...over expansion starting to bite....this rabid growth aint gonna end well in a prolonged slow down...KCB might be first to go down the drain.just common sense,I think.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
ecstacy
#7 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 7:43:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
29% growth largely in an economy that grew by 1.7%!! As an investor I'm happy else we expect miracles!
Agra
#8 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 8:01:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/22/2007
Posts: 96
Location: Agra, India
136% Rise in bad debts points to trouble for the back.Something tyo be afraid of.

NAMASTE !Don't be unrealistic with your expectations
It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
adept
#9 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 8:40:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/8/2008
Posts: 359
The loan loss provision is going raise a lot of eye brows.
Tusker Baridi
#10 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 9:01:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/9/2006
Posts: 186
The elaborate ponzi scheme is slowly unraveling. Dont say you were never warned.
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