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Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Saturday, October 26, 2013 10:14:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:01 AM | Reason: 'U' not 'V'
obiero
#12 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 4:10:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,306
Location: nairobi
@cde.. atleast we are in the same camp for once. the lion is wounded
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:05:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,370
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Cde Monomotapa
#14 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:12:18 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?


Worst case scenario >African Bank Declines Most in Three Months After Reporting Loss #JSE http://www.bloomberg.com...fter-reporting-loss.html
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VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Sunday, October 27, 2013 11:27:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,370
Location: Nairobi
@cde - The bank referred to is a micro-lender giving out unsecured loans & hire purchase loans in SA. It doesn't reflect what Kenyan banks would face. Most of the loans by Kenyan banks are secured & the uptake of unsecured credit in Kenya is much lower than SA. The folks in SA are crazy as they have huge consumer borrowing.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#16 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 3:22:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.
"
Tough for banks in 3Q if the CBK says the sector has made 6.6% less 3Q 2013 vs 2Q 2012. I thought 2Q was affected by the immediate post-electioneering drama whereas 3Q would have been recovery.
Of course, banks take 30-180 days to provision for bad loans. I wonder the if the bad loans have come to roost?

Unexpected to see CBK stated that the sector was on handbrake in Q3. This is likely to spill over into Q4. If so, then the Oct Q3 bank stock price rally speculation will meet a brick wall making Oct highs become tops for 2013.

@cde - indeed some unpleasant surprises loom...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:35:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)
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mwekez@ji
#18 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 10:38:22 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Banking Sector 2013 Outlook

The banking sector is expected to maintain its growth momentum on the backdrop of a stable macro-economic environment, domestic and regional expansion by banks, increased use of ICT by banks and the increased economic activities through the devolved system of government.

CENTRAL BANK OF KENYA
OCTOBER 2013
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Metasploit
#19 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 2:31:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
@mwekez@ji hope u dont get shocked by some of the big boy results.. they must dissapoint


I trust they wont disappoint. y/y (+14.5%) is good. Hiyo q/q (-6.6%) looks like a temporary blip lakini niko rada @CFC&Equity. … CBK “Banking Sector 2013 Outlook” in the report (pg 5) is positive ;-)


Mwekezaji.Noted on Friday a block trade of 752k(2 splits) at 35 ksh on equity which wasnt executed at close of trading.Please inform on foreign buys vs sales on this counter at end of trading today.

Impressed by BBK and Britam.Very aggressive bidders.

CFC is lucklustre.clearly the foreign cap is having an impact on this share

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Monday, October 28, 2013 2:51:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,370
Location: Nairobi
Centum 1.2mn shares on Friday and 1.55mn on Monday. Results expected soon.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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