B.Timer wrote:
Local Tribunal vs ICC in the eyes of Suspects!
Lets face it;
Kenya Parliament voted, not once but twice to defeat the establishment of a local tribunal as anticipated in the bills tabled in the house by Hon Karua with a second attempt pushed by Hon Mutula discouraged by an hostile house.
A third attempt mooted by Gitobu Imanyara was dealt a devastating blow too.
Even Hon Orengo and the PM who had sworn publicly (while in a rally in Meru) to help Imanyara push it through, beat a retreat!!
Of course the push to defeat the bills was all through managed and executed by the presumed suspects, who knew all too well, just like the rest of us, that they were the most likely personalities to be summoned to court - drawing from the reports by KNHRC and other organisations.
What motivated the “suspects” to prefer ICC to local tribunal?
Given another chance today and the same choices put to them, what option would they take.
A lot of commentators on the matter have erroneously opined that the suspects would choose the local tribunal as proposed then - if they had anticipated the ICC route was going to take the trajectory it has.
I mean, if I were a suspect (or thought I would be) I would have taken the same decision as they did.
This is why;
The proposed law was tailored to establish three (3) courts, each comprising 3 (three)Judges, where only (1) one per court would be Kenyan - of good standing. The other two (2) Judges were not only to be sourced from outside Kenya but also to be nominated by Kofi Annan and his group of eminent personalities.
Two (2) courts would be charged with the duty of conducting the initial trials while the third court was to serve as an Appeals court.
The lead investigator&Prosecutor was meant to be yet another non Kenyan proposed to us, again by Koffi Annan and his group.
The Courts were not to be bound by the then constitutional constraints that were being exploited by suspects then to delay litigation.
This is sure doom for any suspect - aware that such a court would not only nail them, but do so in record time.
Of course a good number of MPs (not less than 30 in my estimation) know that their role during PEV was sure to have them sent to the gallows.
Obviously just as ‘naturally organism won’t commit suicide willingly’ so did Mps choose to vote out the local tribunal option - too dangerous for life!
Of course the ICC option isn’t too good either, but given the two “evils”, it is the lesser.
How so:
-The ICC can only accommodate very limited cases, limiting the individuals to indict.
-ICC admits only three types of cases namely War Crimes, Genocide and Crimes against Humanity.
-There is a good chance that the crimes committed in Kenya do not meet -that threshold - hence they go scot free.
-The litigation process within ICC takes comparatively long time to conclude.
-It is easier to corner/challenge a prosecutor based in the Hague over his evidence and create doubt to ones benefit.
On the other hand the Local tribunal would deal with the cases expeditiously, given that their brief would be strictly those cases and nothing else.
Their diary would be forever open - no long deferments.
Most cases’ circumstances and evidence would be similar, hence swift determination – some based on precedent.
This means that by today, lots of people would be in jail, serving long sentences, or worse.
But thanks to the option the MPs took - ICC -they all remain free and only 6 individuals face “ a weak risk” of being prosecuted!
Even for a moment, assume any of the Six were to be convicted, they still have at the very least two (2)years of freedom while the wheels of ICC justice roll.
ICC was a better shot for these fellows (and all other suspects) after all!
No wonder even today, no suspect, or would be PEV Suspect, save for Raila, is talking of a local Tribunal on the terms proposed in the defeated bills.
They prefer to be arraigned in the regular courts as constituted under the new Constitution!!
Very telling!
The suspects had a fairly good plan, but are now floundering on how best to proceed in implementing.
Had they remained calm and sponsored a candidate and a running mate different from themselves, the chances of seeing this plan succeed would have been increased tenfold.
But the current state of affairs indicates that this plan is in great jeopardy.
The success of this plan required judicious and emotionless approach, virtues that Uhuru and Ruto
dont seem to be too well equiped with.
Now more than ever before, chances of these two facing justice are very high.
ICC bekons, of course unless they flee in time (while Kibaki is still in office), to a Country that can protect them a la Felecien Kabuga.
Dunia ni msongamano..