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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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obiero
#4151 Posted : Tuesday, October 08, 2013 10:02:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,217
Location: nairobi
obiero wrote:
symbols wrote:
jerry wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Housing finance is the new equity. @Obiero will regret for alighting too soon smile

@Obiero could be in a chase car already!


This is Kenya,kushaka ni stage,kupanda ni popoteLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

hahaha. @all. i made my money from hfck and now im invested elsewhere i.e kcb @23.25, kq @10.95, bk @17 and coop @ 16.85.. sio kuringa/kuwaudhi, but ever since i alighted, the bus has not moved anywhere, naiona tu around the corner and i can even jog towards it, if i decide to proceed with the journey :)

Im still in the money.. However, I have lost about KES 150,000 potential gain in Safaricom having sold a bit too early. You win some, you loose some

KQ ABP 4.26
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Aguytrying
#4152 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 7:05:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah. kk has been trading very high volumes and defending or breaking down 8.00. something is clearly happening here. question is what? I'm not one to chase the overvalued foreign darlings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#4153 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 7:43:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
@hisah. kk has been trading very high volumes and defending or breaking down 8.00. something is clearly happening here. question is what? I'm not one to chase the overvalued foreign darlings.

I've noted this too as it lags the market. 8/- has held so far contrary to my expectations of a likely breakdown as per the chart pattern. The wedge is very tight now and a breakout either way below 7.90 or above 8.25 will confirm the direction. Wait for that break instead of guessing which side the price will head. NBK too is back testing 20. What a laggard bankster.

My lepers list still reads KK, MSC and KQ. And now NBK. KK and KQ want to ditch the list. NBK and MSC still sickly.

HAFR is too oversold, will likely bounce to 8 supported by the latest volume spike. Hard bounce, but caution with penny stocks since volatility can be crazy as @guru has experienced.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4154 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 7:51:38 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
USD/KES cross is threatening to break below 85/- handle. KES muscular having broken below 87 and 86 handles with ease.

was surprised at how fast the 200dma capitulated, i gues we may see a re test of the year high, whats your take hisah?

I have doubts KES will sustain these gains. GDP growth is already lagging. Eurobond has yet to be floated and declared successful. Once the current US shutdown issue is resolved as well as the debt ceiling issue, KES will definitely erase all those gains. Right now US bond CDS have spiked like when S&P downgraded the US debt rating back in Aug 2011.

Same script different time...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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streetwise
#4155 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 8:47:29 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
The question is how to tell NSE has reached saturation levels
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mlennyma
#4156 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 8:52:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
All this crazy volumes are high networth investors seeing more headroom and expect to reap profits above current prices.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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hisah
#4157 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 10:49:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
streetwise wrote:
The question is how to tell NSE has reached saturation levels

Simple. When your local shopkeeper tells you that the stock market is the place to be. When normal chit chat with relatives or friends happens to mention how stocks have done wonders for them. When wazua forgets about land deals for a year plus. When wazua sees a flood of threads on various stocks being bullish with unrealistic targets without fundamental support. When your local broker issues several buy recos each month and severally emails/calls you to buy not to miss the opportunities.

And the clincher, when IPOs become the hottest thing in town. Just run...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4158 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 11:06:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Total gone total parabolic... very bullish after the 18/- breakout. Only thin volumes (illiquid) keeps it out of my play list.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#4159 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 11:08:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
Simple. When your local shopkeeper tells you that the stock market is the place to be. When normal chit chat with relatives or friends happens to mention how stocks have done wonders for them. When wazua forgets about land deals for a year plus. When wazua sees a flood of threads on various stocks being bullish with unrealistic targets without fundamental support. When your local broker issues several buy recos each month and severally emails/calls you to buy not to miss the opportunities.

And the clincher, when IPOs become the hottest thing in town. Just run... [/color]


Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause

http://www.informedtrade...412-crowd-behavior.html

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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hisah
#4160 Posted : Wednesday, October 09, 2013 4:37:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
Simple. When your local shopkeeper tells you that the stock market is the place to be. When normal chit chat with relatives or friends happens to mention how stocks have done wonders for them. When wazua forgets about land deals for a year plus. When wazua sees a flood of threads on various stocks being bullish with unrealistic targets without fundamental support. When your local broker issues several buy recos each month and severally emails/calls you to buy not to miss the opportunities.

And the clincher, when IPOs become the hottest thing in town. Just run... [/color]


Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause Applause

http://www.informedtrade...412-crowd-behavior.html

Sadly market psychology is not taught anywhere. So emotions will always bite hard. Also the markets must be fed losers in order to survive. Otherwise these markets would collapse like ponzi schemes which don't dish out losers i.e. bullish & bearish cycles.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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