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Elections and major terrorist attacks
The Clown
#1 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 12:40:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/24/2013
Posts: 185
Location: Diaspora
The Westgate attack has distrubed me deeply and I've been trying to find reasons as to why this event took place. It likely was due to a combination of many factors e.g. porous borders, lax immigration, corruption, inadequate security etc.

But it struck me that the attack came just six months after a general election. The 1998 bomb blasts came about 8.5 months after the 1997 election while the Kikambala bombing took place a month before the 2002 polls.

Looking at other countries:

2000 election of George W.- 9/11 less than a year later.

2004 Madrid bombing- three days before Spain's general election.

2005 London attacks- a general election had been held 2 months prior.

2008 Mumbai attacks- countrywide elections held six months later.

The exception to this rule could be the 2002 Bali bombings, in which case there were no elections scheduled in either Indonesia or Australia (most caualties were Australian).


From a purely analytical point of view, I would say that a major terrorist attack is likely to occur within 9 months of a major general election.

Is this a valid conclusion?

Could it be that terrorists strike when a government is either distracted by campaigns or in the 'honeymoon' period of a new administration?
sparkly
#2 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 6:42:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Worth a PHD thesis.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Litro
#3 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 10:20:12 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 120
Location: KENYA
The Clown wrote:
The Westgate attack has distrubed me deeply and I've been trying to find reasons as to why this event took place. It likely was due to a combination of many factors e.g. porous borders, lax immigration, corruption, inadequate security etc.

But it struck me that the attack came just six months after a general election. The 1998 bomb blasts came about 8.5 months after the 1997 election while the Kikambala bombing took place a month before the 2002 polls.

Looking at other countries:

2000 election of George W.- 9/11 less than a year later.

2004 Madrid bombing- three days before Spain's general election.

2005 London attacks- a general election had been held 2 months prior.

2008 Mumbai attacks- countrywide elections held six months later.

The exception to this rule could be the 2002 Bali bombings, in which case there were no elections scheduled in either Indonesia or Australia (most caualties were Australian).


From a purely analytical point of view, I would say that a major terrorist attack is likely to occur within 9 months of a major general election.

Is this a valid conclusion?

Could it be that terrorists strike when a government is either distracted by campaigns or in the 'honeymoon' period of a new administration?


smile What is in a name?
kizee1
#4 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 10:47:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Worth a PHD thesis.


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simonkabz
#5 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 10:49:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
A whole new type of goggles!
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
MADE
#6 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 12:43:52 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/12/2007
Posts: 391
The Clown wrote:
The Westgate attack has distrubed me deeply and I've been trying to find reasons as to why this event took place. It likely was due to a combination of many factors e.g. porous borders, lax immigration, corruption, inadequate security etc.

But it struck me that the attack came just six months after a general election. The 1998 bomb blasts came about 8.5 months after the 1997 election while the Kikambala bombing took place a month before the 2002 polls.

Looking at other countries:

2000 election of George W.- 9/11 less than a year later.

2004 Madrid bombing- three days before Spain's general election.

2005 London attacks- a general election had been held 2 months prior.

2008 Mumbai attacks- countrywide elections held six months later.

The exception to this rule could be the 2002 Bali bombings, in which case there were no elections scheduled in either Indonesia or Australia (most caualties were Australian).


From a purely analytical point of view, I would say that a major terrorist attack is likely to occur within 9 months of a major general election.

Is this a valid conclusion?

Could it be that terrorists strike when a government is either distracted by campaigns or in the 'honeymoon' period of a new administration?

...can see the power to research was conferred upon you. Good thinking
Age is transforming me into an Elder;becoz Admin hasn't made me one.
bird_man
#7 Posted : Wednesday, October 02, 2013 12:54:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 1,206
Location: Nairobi
Stop being a CLOWN....you have listed 5 terrorist attacks between 2000 & 2008.Are you trying to say there were no others?SMH!
Formally employed people often live their employers' dream & forget about their own.
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