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Best shares to speculate in
Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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I vote for:
Mumias Sugar
Equity Bank
Safaricom
In that order.
There are of course no absolutes in our (or any) market. But I believe these are the best speculative shares for 2009. And they have proved to be pretty good for me so far.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/16/2009 Posts: 145
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Why do you want to speculate? You want to loose your money? Never speculate in stocks: invest. Buy a piece of the company and hold. Heard of the Warren Way?
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 64 Location: Far East
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what are your buying and dumping prices? INCLUDE:- CMC12-13,KRE12+ -13,KENGONE 13+ - 14+. for 'value speculation'  TK,KCB,KQ @Stonewewe:- Speculation spices up the Market.... If u neeed some quick money and want 2 play it safe just speculate on the value stocks.no one value stock will go up 'oneway' always in a partern...so just sellect some cool value/fundamentally stable shares and time the trend...make speed cash..if things turn to be bitter then change ur tactics to HOLD...They say buying and selling wont,ake u good money than when u keep on Holding...I dont think this is always the case..what u think?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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@Stonemimi. I have heard of the Warren Way and it is not my way. I have also heard of others who did not use the Buffet style of investing and still made/make money. Names such as Jesse Livermoore,George Soros and Jim Rogers come to mind. I know I will make money by investing steadily,but I do not have the patience for that. Remember,there is intelligent speculation,which entails thorough research,superior emotional balance and great decisiveness. Of course,I recognise the risks,but the rewards are usually worth it.
'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/15/2008 Posts: 84
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I would go for KQ,safaricom and Access kenya
Don't sit and wait - look for the next opportunity
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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@Susu. Prices keep changing. Hence entry and exit prices will change as well. E.g. on my latest round,I bought Mumias @5.70 and sold at 6.60-6.80; Safaricom at 3.15-3.05 and sold between 3.50 to 3.80 while I bought Equity @16-16.30 and sold at 17.50. I am now waiting for them to fall in order to buy again. I do not generally have any price targets at which I will buy or sell. I just watch the market closely especially the volumes. The choice of shares are based on their degree of volatility - the greater the better! While,I will usually make my buys in 1 or 2 lots,I tend to spread out my sales to limit the risk of a price reversal. However,it is worth noting - speculation is full time work - a hard and trying adrenaline filled business,but ultimately rewarding and loads of fun.
'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/17/2008 Posts: 338 Location: Kenya
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KQ na access.... Wisdom brightens a man's face and changes its hard appearance.Eccle 8:1 Think the unthinkable but wear a dark suit
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/16/2009 Posts: 145
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@Iborian,
I wish you were a little patient. You are hardly making any money. In fact you are making your broker rich while you patiently marktime. Buying safcom @3:15 and sell @3:60 makes you 11% from which your broker takes 6% and you 5%. Yea,your 100,000 will yield 5,000 might sound ok,but depends on how long you'll be waiting to locate another cheap stock to buy. I am still holding. Today it is @3:80: are you going to climb?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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@Stonemimi. You appear to be assuming that I invested Kshs 100,000. I actually put in a lot more and my profit on Safcom alone was in excess of 100K. However,that is really not the point,since even a gain of Kshs 5,000 is still money. Part of the reason for my choice of the stocks I have cited is the fact that I can buy and sell reasonably good volumes on any given day. Fortunately,for me due to my frequent activity and fairly good volumes,I am able to negotiate lower commissions (1% for the broker plus 0.34% fo the NSE,CDSC and other statutory levies). So even if a share goes up by 5%,I will still make at least 2%. The broker (together with NSE et al) makes 2.68% on both the buy and sell,but I do not begrudge him that. The 2% could be 2,000 or it could be Kshs 20,000. Either way,it is money that I did not have before the transaction.
You say you are still holding Safaricom at 3.80. What price did you buy them at? Do you know that Safricom closed today with shares on offer at a price of Kshs 3.70 with no takers? Tomorrow,who knows? Mumias traded at Kshs 6.15 at the close against the 6.80 it sold on Friday. I could easily buy it again tomorrow.
By the way,please note that we are not in a bull market,where the strategy of buy and hold works. The market is always fluctuating,especially in unsetted times like these. Of course sometimes I have to wait to get my target stock at a viable price,but I do not mind the waiting,if neccessary. And I can get in and out of a stock countless times while you keep holding it.
'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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To each,their own poison.
Yangu ni Safaricom,Access and KQ.
Men occasionally stumble over the truth,but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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I'd position myself in Kenya Airways and AccessKenya and ride the wave as we go further into the investment horizon.
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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@Stonemimi. Obviously you aint no fan of speculation. Lakini,why not start another topic like,'Best shares to invest in for the next 5 years'. We would like to see your picks with reasons for the choices.
Men occasionally stumble over the truth,but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/18/2009 Posts: 118
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It looks like the prices are on a steady fall. Safaricom is now at 3.65 down from 3.75 average yesterday and Mumias has traded at 6.05 today.
What would be a good price to get into Safaricom and Mumias. What about AK? 3.30,5.95 and 25 would be OK? What do others think?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/17/2009 Posts: 194
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@Renegade. A good speculator does not approach the mkt with preconceived notions of what prices to buy and sell at. The mkt provides it for him through volume and price action.
In any case,even if I have determined an entry and/or exit price level,it would not be wise for me to broadcast,until afterwards.
Otherwise,I will be running the risk that you will pre-empt my moves. I am afraid that sounds selfish,but that's just the way it is. It is a tough world!
'When you do not know a thing,admit that you do not know it. This is knowledge' - Confucius
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/31/2008 Posts: 90
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A lot of red arrows today. Time to start sharpening our knives,next two days......
Men occasionally stumble over the truth,but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 64 Location: Far East
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What is happening with Bamburi??? Very steep rise .. will it ever reach 200+??
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/7/2008 Posts: 2
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@Iborian,how long have you been speculating?
How will Renegade pre-empt your moves considering the unpredictable nature of the stock market!
Exactly what kind of 'thorough research' is required to speculate??
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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@Misrite. 'thorough research' includes being lucky. Somebody needs to accept the cyclic nature of each share and try as much as possible to get all the info that might lead to appetite(or lack of it) for a given stock. Remember this always: buy from pessimists and sell to optimists. Hotels will always serve the fruits/vegs of the season. In stocks,ur duty as a trader is to identify the HOTshare of the season. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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Speculation per se is not bad but if you do it frequently you stand a high risk of losing. Two to Three trades (buy/sale) should suffice otherwise you will definately run into problem. Spend more time watching the market than buying and selling. It is better to grow your portfolio steadily like what am doing with KCB,EABL,and ARM than to to gain big and lose everything thereafter. Frequent trading just like speed thrills when you gain and kills when you lose woefully. AFRICAN INVESTOR The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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