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Cde Monomotapa
#321 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 5:36:51 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Imported discretionary goodies & gadgets should be kept from crowding the import window, hence current a/c, for as long as possible. However, there are some relentless suchs among us so, let them continue picking up the tab.
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Cde Monomotapa
#322 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 6:06:37 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Imported discretionary goodies & gadgets should be kept from crowding the import window, hence current a/c, for as long as possible. However, there are some relentless suchs among us so, let them continue picking up the tab.


Case in point, the rise of Jameson, JD, JW, HK etc which we don't brew locally but have to import to satisfy new found tastes smile We contribute to our own woes too btw. Hehee..
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 03, 2013 6:13 PM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#323 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 6:15:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mwekez@ji wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

VAT bill will have a spike effect on inflation (plus crude oil's current price spike) which will make CBK defensive (hawkish) on CBR before year end.


CBK has alleviated fears that it could turn hawkish and maintained CBR at 8.50 percent. ... It further notes that new VAT measures will contribute to short-term increases in inflation, but the effects will be mild. ... The MPC note is by and large bullish about economic growth smile

Good for the NSE. Major gamble though with rising inflation as @Hisah pointed out. CBK may be forced to make regular interventions at the Forex mkt, to protect KES. Eurobond however may help cool things,should it be successful.
@SufficientlyP
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Scubidu
#324 Posted : Tuesday, September 03, 2013 11:17:37 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I'm sure they're expecting eurobond inflows to stabilize the shilling as the VAT bill wrecks all sort of havoc. It's a gamble with the hold decision but everyone knows you must always stack the cards in your favour to generate the desired outcome. The case of fuzzy (fudged) inflation stats that influenced the decision. The core inflation figure aka non-food-non-fuel supposedly went down (3.86) according to the MPC statement leading to the assumption that there were no demand driven factors in play in August. But when you go to the statistic bureau website (www.knbs.or.ke) and download the latest CPI it's a conflicting story.

Food and fuel indices (2 items)

Food - 9.74
Housing, water, fuel - 4.58

Headline inflation - 6.67

Non-food-non-fuel (10 items)

Alcoholic beverages - 6.10
Clothing and footwear - 4.79
Furnishings - 3.62
Health - 4.33
Transport - 6.66
Communication - 3.62 (minus)
Recreation and culture - 3.87
Education - 4.83
Restaurant and hotel - 6.98
Miscellaneous - 4.47

Core inflation - 3.86?

The law of averages is simple. The average can't be statistically lower than the sum of its parts. Thus core inflation can't be 3.86 based on the 10 items above that form it. Yet this figure is the evidence of the declining threat from demand driven inflation.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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murchr
#325 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 2:59:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#326 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:26:39 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
I'm sure they're expecting eurobond inflows to stabilize the shilling as the VAT bill wrecks all sort of havoc. It's a gamble with the hold decision but everyone knows you must always stack the cards in your favour to generate the desired outcome. The case of fuzzy (fudged) inflation stats that influenced the decision. The core inflation figure aka non-food-non-fuel supposedly went down (3.86) according to the MPC statement leading to the assumption that there were no demand driven factors in play in August. But when you go to the statistic bureau website (www.knbs.or.ke) and download the latest CPI it's a conflicting story.

Food and fuel indices (2 items)

Food - 9.74
Housing, water, fuel - 4.58

Headline inflation - 6.67

Non-food-non-fuel (10 items)

Alcoholic beverages - 6.10
Clothing and footwear - 4.79
Furnishings - 3.62
Health - 4.33
Transport - 6.66
Communication - 3.62 (minus)
Recreation and culture - 3.87
Education - 4.83
Restaurant and hotel - 6.98
Miscellaneous - 4.47

Core inflation - 3.86?

The law of averages is simple. The average can't be statistically lower than the sum of its parts. Thus core inflation can't be 3.86 based on the 10 items above that form it. Yet this figure is the evidence of the declining threat from demand driven inflation.

The core inflation gimmick d'oh!

I still expect treasury to put out a $2 billion eurobond if the market permits it.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#327 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:32:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES


Try and imagine the net effect when the billions barrel output gets hit plus natgas then rare earth, coal, gold, geothermal et al... Hii mapesa mutapeleka wapi...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:36 AM | Reason: Not specified
murchr
#328 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:40:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
AFRICA OIL ANNOUNCES 557% INCREASE IN ESTIMATES OF CONTINGENT RESOURCES IN THE SOUTH LOKICHAR BASIN IN KENYA AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RISKED PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES


Try and imagine the net effect when the billions barrel output gets hit plus natgas then rare earth, coal, gold, geothermal et al... Hii mapesa mutapeleka wapi...


Don't get us overly excited, the other players holding licenses should drill fast we need to start dreaming early
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 5:41 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#329 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 6:01:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
A CBR increase will spell doom to the stock market bull since foreign and institutional investors will get out of the market in droves to the money market ... Looking forward to MPC holding the rate

Depends with the hike spread. 25 - 50bps will be fine. Anything above 100bps will turn equities defensive yaani sell overvaluation.


Unlikely to see a hike in the CBR. They generally use core inflation to decide whether a rate hike is warranted. That figure is still below 5%. Raising the CBR would be a bad idea.


ditto @Scubidu. @hisah, a small increase in CBR will send a very loud signal which i believe we all dont want. .... Economy and Credit needs to grow

I forgot to mention that my major concern is on farm inputs being taxed. The effect of this on food security is like playing with fire esp with a bad weather period.

But when you take 'candies' from IMF/WB such are the conditions (bad for you, good for them). If life does get tough for wanjiku in the next 4yrs, jubilee will be jobless after the 1st term as well as many sitting politicians...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Metasploit
#330 Posted : Wednesday, September 04, 2013 9:16:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
How Manu Chandaria Mastered the African Market

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 04, 2013 9:17 AM | Reason: Not specified
263 Pages«<3132333435>»
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