The question is, Will they agree? Do we even have bargaining power?

You make a good argument Kausha, but you and I part ways on several issues.

1. You imply that the real value of infrastructure is the jobs and local sourcing that helps build our manufacturing and service industry. I don't deny this value but, for me, it is a small start. I consider the true value of infrastructure as what we can do with it. Vision 2030 has some pretty good ideas that are dependent on the roads, railways and airports being built. If the Chinese can deliver in time and on cost it seems like a small price to allow them to bring their staff and equipment.

2. If you believe that the West plays this game any differently, you are the one who is deluded. Please do a google about 'local sourcing' and you will see how much of Western loans ends up going back as overpriced consultancy fees and all kinds of stuff purchased from the 'donor' country.



I have no problem with Western preaching, although I admit it can be tiresome sometimes. But claiming that they offer a better development deal than the Chinese is historical revisionism at best. The whole of Africa would not be looking East if their so called friends in the West were delivering.

@ Wakanyugi, just who is the whole of africa......Uhuru, Museveni, Mugabe, Kagame etc.last time I checked SA, Botswana, Nigeria, Egypt were not exactly rushing to China. Careful you could be in stupor suffering from the too much antiwest repellant, open your 'windows' or sip some water.

Indulge in my rebuttal, Economics 101, infrastructure spend has a very long value chain and in turn a higher multiplier factor because of the value chain. When you build a road, you need trucks, labor, engineers, draughtsmen, cement, steel, excavators, sand, crushers, quarry etc. That is the first layer, second layer, you have banks to provide financing, cement manufacturers, equipment manufacturers, insurance companies, jua kali artisans, mama uji na githeri at the site, mechanics to fix equipment, quarry labor, sand harvesters, quantity surveyors, civil engineers, apprentists being trained on the site etc. Third layer, you have families of all these people, the government-all taxes, mitumba sellers, mama mboga at home, local supermarkets where the above 2 entities would buy from. the fourth layer is the general economy. Having all these people and institutions in the value chain results in a larger multiplier effect and great impact in the economy, jobs, higher incomes and improved purchasing power in the economy.

Now look at the chinese model. Most of the material is sourced from external suppliers in china, most of the financing is from China Exim Bank of simmilar institutions - occassionally a few banks will be lucky, all skilled labor is from china, all equipment is from china, the proceeds are repatriated to china. What do we get, an excellent road, few small working capital facilities in banks, a few insurance policies, withholding tax and some vat to KRA, low level labor which is not even scaled up during the project and a pockets of Xianhu Kamau and Ling achieng from Chinese cavorting with our ladies. What am advancing is that although chinese built roads are great and have superb short term value, in the long run, the current model of infrastructure engagement with China is value destructive in the long run. Cutting off majority of the locals from the value chain is definitely destructive to the economy and is one sure way to ensure we don't attain the vision 2030 goals. Remember the whole purpose of vision 2030 is ensure we are a middle income society - more people living earning and living comfortably than now. Part of the process is to ensure as we build we create enterprises that can engage more of the citizenry productively. In 2030 if we have roads, a railway and water and majority of the population still unable to feed themselves we will have failed. Please remember to measure vision 2030 in Standard of living by our people and not in terms of visible projects!

From a historical perspective the West will always rue the day they allowed china to dominate africa's infrastructure and minerals. No one builds infrastructure for the sake of it you build it to dominate that's the lesson you learn from history from the roman empire. I find this quote from the Chinese leader quite instructive

"Xi lauded China's historical ties with Kenya, specifically mentioning the 15th century voyages of Chinese Muslim admiral Zheng He, who led expeditions to the east African coast.

"And on your side, the Malindi region, also sent envoys to China, even sending giraffes as gifts," Xi said. "All these are much told stories in the annals of our friendship and exchanges."
http://au.news.yahoo.com...welcomed-on-china-visit/