Kenya’s Rotich Says Very Little to No Room for Further Rate CutsKenya may not have any room left to cut interest rates further this year as the inflation outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy detoriorates, Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich said.
The Monetary Policy Committee, led by central bank Governor Njuguna Ndung’u, will review the benchmark interest rate again in September and November, after leaving it unchanged at 8.5 percent this month. Kenya has cut the rate by 9.5 percentage points since the easing cycle began last year.
“There is very little room if any left for more monetary easing because inflation is picking up,” Rotich said in an interview today in the capital, Nairobi. “Inflation could accelerate, but remain within our target.”
Annual inflation accelerated to 4.9 percent in June from 4.1 percent in May, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, staying within the government’s target of 2.5 percentage points above or below 5 percent.
The statistics office is expected to release July inflation data tomorrow.
New taxes may fan inflation, according to Deloitte. Kenya introduced a railway development levy of 1.5 percent on all imported goods from July 1, while lawmakers are debating a bill in which the government wants to scrap exemptions of the 16 percent Value Added Tax on some processed products.
Rotich said the shilling is expected to stablize at about 85 per dollar “as long as fundamentals such as inflation are in order.” The shilling is Africa’s second-worst performing currency this month, after Ghana’s cedi. The currency was trading unchanged at 87.30 per dollar by 2:14 p.m. in Nairobi, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Kenya’s plan to sell its first Eurobonds in September or October to raise $1 billion to fund infrastructure is moving forward, according to Rotich. “Global market conditions have not changed significantly and we expect they will still favour us when we sell this year,” he said.
Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.8 percent this year from 4.6 percent in 2012, according to Rotich. The country is the world’s biggest exporter of black tea and supplies a third of all of the flowers traded in Europe.