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Kenya Economy Watch
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#71 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:38:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
symbols wrote:
hisah wrote:

@mweke - Why doesn't gok formulate the blueprint for nurturing of SMEs, expansion of manufacturing as well as agri econ support via subsidies as well as incubation funding via special econ zones plus bank of manufacturers? Also not forgetting infra as well as cheap power distribution. Then once we have the platform up and running, KES can be devalued since KE will have a lot more to export in terms of finished goods. But devaluing now without the basic structures up and running is a zero sum game since to achieve the above importation will sustain until the platform is formed. So I disagree that debasing KES as reco'd by WB is the best prescription for the deficit issue. Sound fiscal policies are the only way out.

Applause

Opportunities are like buses...we need to get the bus fare.


mates, of all those things you mention, only bank of manufacturers is not in the pipeline. so, why not implement the debasing of KES concurrently with the said mix of monetary & fiscal policies for more rapid econ growth?

Debase the ccy and the import bill for the platform increases yet you don't have the sufficient USD reserves to foot that bill. I don't see any value in that. The two events are mutually exclusive. Besides it takes a while to stem off the consumerism habit that has taken a while to form. What has led to this consumerism for external imports? Lack of local suitable alternatives. Fix that and the imports get fixed. Form trade ties with your import nations e.g. encouraging them to invest in your country (build manufacturing units for local consumption) which also boosts the local econ, retains earnings (tax revenues) and boosts job creation.


Using the same principle we should also foster a better relationship with our E.A counterparts as we're in it together.
mkonomtupu
#72 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 1:43:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
I tend to support the world bank on this one. The Kshs is being artificially propped it should be allowed to get to its true value even if its 107/= but gradually. In the mid 1990's it was at 96 and we still managed. I don't understand why kenya currency is now stronger than it was a decade ago.

If only we had implemented SAPS faithfully like we did in the 1993 and 1994 and promoting the EPZ's like Kitengela as recommended by world bank we would be far. Now we have an economy that is high from punch bowl economics printing money and fake stimulus programs. We are surviving on hot money short term speculation capital
hisah
#73 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:02:05 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mkonomtupu wrote:
I tend to support the world bank on this one. The Kshs is being artificially propped it should be allowed to get to its true value even if its 107/= but gradually. In the mid 1990's it was at 96 and we still managed. I don't understand why kenya currency is now stronger than it was a decade ago.

If only we had implemented SAPS faithfully like we did in the 1993 and 1994 and promoting the EPZ's like Kitengela as recommended by world bank we would be far. Now we have an economy that is high from punch bowl economics printing money and fake stimulus programs. We are surviving on hot money short term speculation capital

Give me a success story of any nation that has ever implemented WB recommendations and came out as a successful economy.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mkonomtupu
#74 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:35:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
hisah wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
I tend to support the world bank on this one. The Kshs is being artificially propped it should be allowed to get to its true value even if its 107/= but gradually. In the mid 1990's it was at 96 and we still managed. I don't understand why kenya currency is now stronger than it was a decade ago.

If only we had implemented SAPS faithfully like we did in the 1993 and 1994 and promoting the EPZ's like Kitengela as recommended by world bank we would be far. Now we have an economy that is high from punch bowl economics printing money and fake stimulus programs. We are surviving on hot money short term speculation capital

Give me a success story of any nation that has ever implemented WB recommendations and came out as a successful economy.


Kenya is a good example foreign exchange liberalization- there was a time you could end up in jail for 10 years for being in possession of foreign currency and you used to beg the whole day and obtain 10 signatures at the treasury for dollars. Privatization of KQ, KCB, NBK, Uchumi, Kengen etc all world bank policies
deadpoet
#75 Posted : Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:56:43 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/27/2006
Posts: 506
mkonomtupu wrote:
hisah wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
I tend to support the world bank on this one. The Kshs is being artificially propped it should be allowed to get to its true value even if its 107/= but gradually. In the mid 1990's it was at 96 and we still managed. I don't understand why kenya currency is now stronger than it was a decade ago.

If only we had implemented SAPS faithfully like we did in the 1993 and 1994 and promoting the EPZ's like Kitengela as recommended by world bank we would be far. Now we have an economy that is high from punch bowl economics printing money and fake stimulus programs. We are surviving on hot money short term speculation capital

Give me a success story of any nation that has ever implemented WB recommendations and came out as a successful economy.


Kenya is a good example foreign exchange liberalization- there was a time you could end up in jail for 10 years for being in possession of foreign currency and you used to beg the whole day and obtain 10 signatures at the treasury for dollars. Privatization of KQ, KCB, NBK, Uchumi, Kengen etc all world bank policies


Those were also called 'Structural Adjustment Policies' which did more harm than good across the world.
mwekez@ji
#76 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 9:14:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
World Bank emphasis on exports growth is genuine and for the good of the country. I dont see malicious intent in this call. May the government take heed
mwekez@ji
#77 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 9:25:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Treasury to issue Kenya’s first eurobond in September

The money is expected to finance infrastructure projects such as the Lamu transport corridor, which includes new railways and roads, the Economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau said Wednesday.

The international bond issue will be at least Sh85 billion ($1 billion), but Mr Mwau hinted at a press conference last week that it could be as high as Sh220 billion.
Kausha
#78 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 10:13:28 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Mwau should be sincere, Kenya can not be lent 220 billion in Euros, that would be a junk bond! 85B is more like it.
tonicasert
#79 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 10:35:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
Kausha wrote:
Mwau should be sincere, Kenya can not be lent 220 billion in Euros, that would be a junk bond! 85B is more like it.


Laughing out loudly
hisah
#80 Posted : Thursday, June 20, 2013 12:02:03 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
tonicasert wrote:
Kausha wrote:
Mwau should be sincere, Kenya can not be lent 220 billion in Euros, that would be a junk bond! 85B is more like it.


Laughing out loudly

Possible to push it to $2.5 billion. And of course 220B euros would be a junk bond kama hizo za PIIGS na Cyprus.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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