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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
murchr
#241 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2013 5:29:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kausha wrote:
Lets do our homework. KQ does not lease any 767 or 777 from KLM. It has only leased a few 737's for short to medium haul routes. Why would they lease 777's yet there's are not fully utilized. I prefer to buy into airlines with leased planes just like I love manufacturers who soak debt and produce consistent return. Leased planes put discipline in management of an airline.

It's incorrect to say purchased planes are cheaper because when business ain't great you park the damn planes. All planes have by and large simmilar costs but the difference is cashflow movement. When you park a purchased plane during market down turns you are paying for - parking fees, cabin crew costs, cockpit crew costs, engineers costs, offices on your routes and their staff costs, insurance premiums, interest and loan repayments etc. I would rather a leased plane because it incurs all other costs but importantly it keeps management honest and puts pressure on them to generate cashflows to fund plane lease payments.


I dont think I said KQ leased the 767 and 777 from KLM, the fact is they leased and continue to lease several planes from KLM, the 767 and 777 are mainly leased from GECAS. KQ uses 767 planes to fly in Africa (Long Range planes for short distances) which translates to a waste in fuel, hence it was wise to acquire the Embraer planes.
Do you really know how leasing works? If KQ leases a plane to fly the malawi route then like the other day, the flights are stopped, isn't that a loss, doesnt the plane still has to pay for parking fees and the bla bla you stated above? Esp given that they leasing company will expect a check at the end of the month?

Owning is better in the long run, if they decide to ground a plane, the human resources can be terminated and the plane leased or sold to another operator. May be its time you did your homework
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#242 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 10:53:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
Kausha wrote:
Lets do our homework. KQ does not lease any 767 or 777 from KLM. It has only leased a few 737's for short to medium haul routes. Why would they lease 777's yet there's are not fully utilized. I prefer to buy into airlines with leased planes just like I love manufacturers who soak debt and produce consistent return. Leased planes put discipline in management of an airline.

It's incorrect to say purchased planes are cheaper because when business ain't great you park the damn planes. All planes have by and large simmilar costs but the difference is cashflow movement. When you park a purchased plane during market down turns you are paying for - parking fees, cabin crew costs, cockpit crew costs, engineers costs, offices on your routes and their staff costs, insurance premiums, interest and loan repayments etc. I would rather a leased plane because it incurs all other costs but importantly it keeps management honest and puts pressure on them to generate cashflows to fund plane lease payments.


I dont think I said KQ leased the 767 and 777 from KLM, the fact is they leased and continue to lease several planes from KLM, the 767 and 777 are mainly leased from GECAS. KQ uses 767 planes to fly in Africa (Long Range planes for short distances) which translates to a waste in fuel, hence it was wise to acquire the Embraer planes.
Do you really know how leasing works? If KQ leases a plane to fly the malawi route then like the other day, the flights are stopped, isn't that a loss, doesnt the plane still has to pay for parking fees and the bla bla you stated above? Esp given that they leasing company will expect a check at the end of the month?

Owning is better in the long run, if they decide to ground a plane, the human resources can be terminated and the plane leased or sold to another operator. May be its time you did your homework

1) You can't terminate the 'human resources' on a flight to flight basis. The fixed costs [admin, etc] remain. As for flight crew, they are guaranteed certain minimum hours regardless whether they fly or not. As you saw, KQ can't even fire those it does not need!
2) There is often little difference in costs between buying & leasing except the initial cash outlay for leases is lower. KQ has to deposit 5-10% of the purchase price to get the loans. When it is acquiring 20 planes, that adds up fast.
3) The 767s served a purpose & stayed too long in service primarily due to delays in the delivery of 787s. Some destinations are better served with 767s due to increased cargo space. The narrow Embraers can carry passengers but little additional cargo when full.
4) When traffic is slow [see flights after 9/11 or during the GFC] it may be difficult to get a 'fair' price for the plane or get a great lease rate. There is often over-supply during this time & firms like GECAS have a leg up over small airlines like KQ. They can offer better rates & packages as well as have an extensive rolodex.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#243 Posted : Wednesday, May 15, 2013 5:02:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VVS Human resources can be terminated or deployed infact, the best way to go is to lease that. Have a company that will supply stewards and hostesses as needed. And KQ did fire them, forget the politics.

Leasing is considerably higher in the longrun esp for bigger companies or companies that foresee growth, the insurance of leased planes is higher and its often passed to the user, leasing fees include mileage covered. In the long run, lease payments are more than 90% the price of the aircraft.

Now on Embrears and cargo, the planes are mainly passenger planes that are meant to fly shortrange and the cargo space is just enough for that, if anything, it would makes business sense if KQ runs cargo and passenger planes as different entities.

Again, 767s are not short-range flights even though they can handle enough cargo, you find that the returns are very minimal, the delivery of 787 should not be an excuse for KQ to fly a 767 to Dar or Malawi infact 787s should not fly shortrange also, the 737s can do that.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
guru267
#244 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 4:36:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
looks like bankruptcy might be closer than we thought Sad www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/xes54o/-/index.html
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Aguytrying
#245 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 7:49:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
looks like bankruptcy might be closer than we thought Sad www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/xes54o/-/index.html


will gava wait till this company is completely bankrupt. this could be the next uchumi.
752 management staff.... isn't that too high.
how can a company borrowing 5b to survive be the same company raising 10b last year for aggresive expansion.
if u realise u are in a sinking boat, stop paddling
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
dunkang
#246 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 8:06:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Aguytrying wrote:
guru267 wrote:
looks like bankruptcy might be closer than we thought Sad www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/xes54o/-/index.html


will gava wait till this company is completely bankrupt. this could be the next uchumi.
752 management staff.... isn't that too high.
how can a company borrowing 5b to survive be the same company raising 10b last year for aggresive expansion.
if u realise u are in a sinking boat, stop paddling

ARE WE SEEING THE LAST DAYS OF KQ? NO. WE STILL HAVE 3 MORE YEARS BEFORE IT COLLAPSES
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

maka
#247 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 9:15:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
guru267 wrote:
looks like bankruptcy might be closer than we thought Sad www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/xes54o/-/index.html


will gava wait till this company is completely bankrupt. this could be the next uchumi.
752 management staff.... isn't that too high.
how can a company borrowing 5b to survive be the same company raising 10b last year for aggresive expansion.
if u realise u are in a sinking boat, stop paddling

ARE WE SEEING THE LAST DAYS OF KQ? NO. WE STILL HAVE 3 MORE YEARS BEFORE IT COLLAPSES

There is no company here...
possunt quia posse videntur
Mukiri
#248 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 10:41:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
I smell a rat! There is no way government can allow KQ to go down. And it says something that Naikuni has been at the helm and continues to be so. Someone wants this share to hit rock bottom, before buying the same when revamping will happen.

Market manipulation at its best!

Proverbs 19:21
guru267
#249 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 11:23:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
guru267 wrote:
looks like bankruptcy might be closer than we thought Sad www.businessdailyafrica....40/-/xes54o/-/index.html


will gava wait till this company is completely bankrupt. this could be the next uchumi.
752 management staff.... isn't that too high.
how can a company borrowing 5b to survive be the same company raising 10b last year for aggresive expansion.
if u realise u are in a sinking boat, stop paddling

ARE WE SEEING THE LAST DAYS OF KQ? NO. WE STILL HAVE 3 MORE YEARS BEFORE IT COLLAPSES


@dunkang one more year of an 8billion loss will cause insolvency Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#250 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 11:39:37 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Mukiri wrote:
I smell a rat! There is no way government can allow KQ to go down. And it says something that Naikuni has been at the helm and continues to be so. Someone wants this share to hit rock bottom, before buying the same when revamping will happen.

Market manipulation at its best!


@Mukiri..please read the first post on this thread.

..operational inefficiency has eroded KQ asset value.. and those variables aren't controlled by persons outside KQ management..and if ur argument that there is market manipulation on this counter..then prove it. It's crap..Naikuni needs to go.. unfortunately..he is there probably out of political/ethnic patronage..not merit..unless merit on performance is gauged by pretty low standards.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Kausha
#251 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 12:09:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@ Mukiri stop dreaming there is nothing to manipulate about KQ, it's horrible in the airline world - Read European Debt crisis. You saw Qantas shed most of it's European routes to Emirates. My only fear is that I had called a bail out FY 14/15 but I would be very scared if it happens this June.

@ Muchr, spend time differentiating between the various aircraft lease types. There is no homework required on our side. A leased plane makes a lot of sense of KQ. Leases especially wet leases which KQ uses are paid on hours the aircraft operates but you also pay for the rest of the operating costs associated with the plane such as parking, crew etc. Obviously if you are working within the realms of scarce resources obviously you want to pay when you have made some money. When acquiring a plane you place an order, put in a deposit, put in place financing etc. the associated costs are opportunity cost if the plane is not delivered on time, facility cost of the undrawn amount etc. Once the plane is in place you still pay the same costs as the leased plane. Obviously it's in real sense cheaper to lease.

Let's go to KQ (do your homework). Embraers are by and large sub optimal planes for KQ's business model and that is why they have to keep juggling 767's and 777's in africa routes. You make a very poor and basic assumption that all travellers within Africa are going on work related business, holiday or 'oshago' to sight see or visit loved ones and so only need a suite case which fits in the belly of an Embraer. You are WRONG, most of KQ travellers within Africa are largely traders shipping in goods from the East. Belly space in the passenger plane is of paramount importance for KQ. No airline runs a scheduled cargo network. Cargo works on volumes, if there are volumes the plane goes. Certainly as a trader you want to arrive with your cargo or latest one day delay else it impacts on your business. Remember on some busy routes KQ is going head to head with other savvy carriers who use belly space to their advantage. Certainly Emirates has dominated KQ on the Asia- Uganda, Asia - lagos, Assia - Accra routes for this simple reason. They do so well that they actually do 'wing to wing' 777's on the lagos route - a 777 carrying passengers and another 777 carrying cargo all landing within minutes of each other. Just how is KQ supposed to pinch market share with an Embraer on this route.
dunkang
#252 Posted : Wednesday, May 29, 2013 1:05:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
KQ is in bad state that even its top management can't buy a portion of it. There is nothing to manipulate in this stock.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

ProverB
#253 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 9:57:53 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
dunkang wrote:
KQ is in bad state that even its top management can't buy a portion of it. There is nothing to manipulate in this stock.


True.

Reading through this thread makes one grateful for Wazua's archives! Thank you guys. Applause Applause
..a good opportunity to deliberately interrogate varying investment analysis.
..I admit.. wazua is a good thing. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mwekez@ji
#254 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 11:36:16 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@ProverB, et al, whats your take on this >>> Turbulence in aviation industry is momentary >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....46/-/w5w8vs/-/index.html
ProverB
#255 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 1:55:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mwekez@ji wrote:
@ProverB, et al, whats your take on this >>> Turbulence in aviation industry is momentary >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....46/-/w5w8vs/-/index.html


Hahahahaha! Genius! *Aje sasa?*

Every year..KQ has reported bad results blame always went to "Prevailing industry and economic woes"...every year..apart from when they reported 4billion loss for half year..only then did management concede a little bit..that operational efficiencies are at play..

Anyway..it's still crap..the lower the price just makes a better comparative price to asset value ratio. smile

KQ won't collapse.. Hata Kenya Railways with 50billion insolvency haijaanguka yet. smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
dunkang
#256 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 2:00:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
ProverB wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@ProverB, et al, whats your take on this >>> Turbulence in aviation industry is momentary >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....46/-/w5w8vs/-/index.html


Hahahahaha! Genius! *Aje sasa?*

Every year..KQ has reported bad results blame always went to "Prevailing industry and economic woes"...every year..apart from when they reported 4billion loss for half year..only then did management concede a little bit..that operational efficiencies are at play..

Anyway..it's still crap..the lower the price just makes a better comparative price to asset value ratio. smile

KQ won't collapse.. Hata Kenya Railways with 50billion insolvency haijaanguka yet. smile

NICE ONE. If Kenya Reli still exists, KQ will be here forever.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

mwekez@ji
#257 Posted : Thursday, May 30, 2013 2:42:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
dunkang wrote:
ProverB wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
@ProverB, et al, whats your take on this >>> Turbulence in aviation industry is momentary >>> http://www.businessdailyafrica....46/-/w5w8vs/-/index.html


Hahahahaha! Genius! *Aje sasa?*

Every year..KQ has reported bad results blame always went to "Prevailing industry and economic woes"...every year..apart from when they reported 4billion loss for half year..only then did management concede a little bit..that operational efficiencies are at play..

Anyway..it's still crap..the lower the price just makes a better comparative price to asset value ratio. smile

KQ won't collapse.. Hata Kenya Railways with 50billion insolvency haijaanguka yet. smile

NICE ONE. If Kenya Reli still exists, KQ will be here forever.

VituVingiSana
#258 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 10:19:21 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
dunkang wrote:
KQ is in bad state that even its top management can't buy a portion of it. There is nothing to manipulate in this stock.
http://coldtusker.blogsp...ares-in-their-firms.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mastermind
#259 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 11:22:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/25/2012
Posts: 1,624
Location: Langley
Mukiri wrote:
I smell a rat! There is no way government can allow KQ to go down. And it says something that Naikuni has been at the helm and continues to be so. Someone wants this share to hit rock bottom, before buying the same when revamping will happen.

Market manipulation at its best!

Kenya power.
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
dunkang
#260 Posted : Friday, May 31, 2013 4:02:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Mastermind wrote:
Mukiri wrote:
I smell a rat! There is no way government can allow KQ to go down. And it says something that Naikuni has been at the helm and continues to be so. Someone wants this share to hit rock bottom, before buying the same when revamping will happen.

Market manipulation at its best!

Kenya power.

Williamson Tea
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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