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Why LAPSSET should be downgraded
limanika
#1 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 5:55:22 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/21/2011
Posts: 2,032

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.

.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.
alma
#2 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 6:03:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
interesting.

would also like to hear murchr opinion about this.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
murchr
#3 Posted : Monday, May 27, 2013 6:12:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
alma wrote:
interesting.

would also like to hear murchr opinion about this.


Alma yaani unanitafuta tu....Why not link this post to the lapsset thread then we continue...i have alot to say
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
maka
#4 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:19:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
limanika wrote:

.Ethiopia is constructing a high speed electric railway line originating from Djibouti, crossing through Ethiopia main land all the way to Juba in Southern Sudan. They have allowed a link to Moyale supposedly to serve Northern Kenya. Ethiopia and Southern Sudan may not therefore need Lapsset in the current form of the proposal.
.Tanzania is developing a massive port at Bagamoyo (to rival Lamu) and a standard gauge railway line from Dar to Kigali. Rwanda, Burundi and Eastern Congo might not need Mombasa any more

.During the CPA years (2005-2011) Al Bashir milked too much oil from southern Sudan fields. Consequently, Southern Sudan can only produce oil for maximum 10-15 years. The proposed Lapsset oil pipeline may therefore not be of much economic use.

The only hinterland that should really guide our planning is Kenya mainland itself, Uganda, and Southern Sudan to an extent.

With this in mind, if there is any facility to be fast-tracked by Kenya, it is the overhaul of existing archaic Mombasa – Kamapla railway and replacement with standard gauge type...not Lapsset.

As for Lapsset, the only facility that should go ahead for now is the Lamu Port. A standard gauge railway line should then be built linking Lamu to new Mombasa Kampala Standard gauge railway at Voi. Links from Mombasa- Kampala Standard gauge railway to Isiolo, Moyale, Juba from Kitale, etc can still be created in future depending on demand. As for the oil pipeline, it may be more cost effective to replace the existing one with modern pipeline that with reverse flow ability, or build two side by side. A link to Juba can be created from Eldoret.

very very interesting....
possunt quia posse videntur
Njung'e
#5 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:20:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Limanika,

Applause Applause Applause That's interesting.....You've put a lot of thought on this.I am waiting to hear from someone who has contrary views.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
wanyee
#6 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:34:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Sham analysis..putting cart before the oxen
murchr
#7 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:41:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Can those saying that this is interesting substantiate because to me its absolutely nonsense. Do you stop living because your neighbor has said he is going to start living?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
tinker
#8 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:47:48 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/15/2010
Posts: 455
Location: Nairobi
I concur with @limanika, having lived in both Ethiopia and S/Sudan, I must say that Habashis (Ethiopian) are serious in doing business with Juba. A drive from Gambella(Ethiopia) to Pagak & Kurmuk border towns say it all.
I don't know about the railway lines but their new road network to this border towns speaks volumes.
....He who began a good work in you will carry it on to completion..
alma
#9 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:52:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
murchr what limanika is saying is we need to prioritize something and fast. We have had a lot of funfair and media publicity on these grand lapsetts and konza's.

As we were holding press conferences, our neighbours have been working.

Your analogy is assuming that we are living. We are still dreaming of starting to live. Our neighbours have started building. That will lead to the wazua threads of "my neighbour has bought a range rover"

I would be very interested to hear a different opinion. Including laptops and 6% economic growth as MP's increase the wage bill would also add spice to the topic.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
wanyee
#10 Posted : Tuesday, May 28, 2013 8:56:57 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
check the feasibility report the neighbors are just as a by-the-way
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