The economic survey detailing 2012 performance has been released. During the year, real GDP grew 4.6%, up from 4.4% in the previous year and below Sub-Saharan Africa growth of 4.8%. Average inflation fell from a peak of 14% in 2011 to 9.4% in 2012 and this decline is expected to be sustained further into 2013. Real average earnings however declined 4.8% due to inflation. The labour market grew 5.5% to 659,400 jobs. Jobs created in the formal sector reduced 8.4% while the informal sector grew 7.4%. Informal sector jobs accounted for 89.7% of new jobs while the remainder was formal. On governance, pending cases in court reduced 3.5% to 627,370 while prison population reduced 20.3% to 196,911. Kenya’s trade balance worsened 8.7% to KES 856.8bn as imports grew 5.7% on stable exports. Even though the capital account improved 31.7% to KES 438bn, the current account degenerated 5.6% to KES 359.5bn. The overall balance of payments improved on the previous year as a result of a buildup of reserves by the Central Bank of Kenya.

Financial, retail intermediation and construction were the leading growth sectors in Kenya for 2012 with a growth of 6.5%, 6.4% and 4.8% respectively. Financial intermediation growth slowed from 7.8%, wholesale and retail trade slowed from a growth of 7.3%. Construction rose from 4.3% to 4.8%, boosted by both government spending on infrastructure and private sector. Transport and telecommunications grew 4% (vs 4.7%) while agriculture grew 3.8% (vs 1.5% in 2011), manufacturing 3.1% (vs 3.4% in 2011). As agriculture has the largest weight in GDP contribution, despite the reduction in growth for the other sectors, the economy posted a modest growth. Key crops which contributed to the growth during the year were coffee, maize and wheat with production rising 35%, 16.3% and 53.6%.

Tourist arrivals fell 6.1% to 1.7m with performance being weighed down by reduced traffic from the Euro zone, and on travel advisories brought about by security concerns. During 2012, demand for petroleum products declined 5.7% as a result of reduced thermal generation. Pipeline throughput of white petroleum however rose 14.2% as a result of increased demand both in Kenya and in the region. Electricity energy consumption however grew 2.2% 6,414m KWh. Earnings from railway transport rose 22.4% as a result of higher tariff and restructuring of Rift Valley Railways. Total throughput at the port of Mombasa rose 9.9% to 22m tones. Mobile subscriber base increased 25.3% to 29.7m while internet subscriptions rose 37.1% to 8.5m.

(KNBS, SIB)

GDP Growth Rate:

2005; 5.9%
2007; 7.0%
2009; 2.7%
2010; 5.8%
2011; 4.4%
2012; 4.6%
2013; 6.0% (projected)
10% coming soon

#Bullish >>> The 6% GDP growth forecast for 2013 is the fastest growth rate in 6 years

The growth in the manufacturing sector is deplorable

Earnings from the mining
sector grew by 30 per cent last year aided by increased inflows from export of gold, adding lustre to the new ministry in charge of
minerals.
Official data indicate
earnings from minerals stood at Sh27.5 billion last year up from Sh18.3 billion in 2011.
This was driven by the more than doubling of gold proceeds to Sh13.9 billion from Sh5.6 billion, changing tide against non-metal minerals such as soda ash and fluorspar that have dominated the sector.
http://www.businessdaily...62/-/frofl/-/index.html

Watch 2013! And especially Q3 & Q4!!

I also like the fact we now have a mining ministry and its on the able hands of cabinet secretary najib balala. the chap is an achiever

KRA collection for April rises to Sh77.2 billion

Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected Sh77.2 billion in April, exceeding average monthly tax realised in the first 10 months of the year by Sh22.2 billion.

Tax experts attributed the increase to final instalment tax payments by companies.

“April is a key month because all companies which close their books have to make final their final payments; that will include all banks and insurance companies,” said Nikhil Hira, a tax partner at Deloitte and Touche.

Mr Hira said tax performance in the month of May was not expected to be as impressive but it could pick in June when most companies are expected to pay the second instalment of their estimated tax liability.

@mwekezaji, which platform are we talking about here? for students of economics we all know policy measures carry a 6-12 month lag when dealing with impact. Not so sure whether the high rates of Oct 2011 - June -2012 have dissipated. Also the only way the economy has appeared to grow over the past 5yrs was via loose non targeted monetary policy! We all know what happened when that came to a heady end. Now perhaps the Monetary authority has the benefit of education and will put on their thinking caps and avoid monetary poligymnastics.

@Kausha, Listen to wholesale and retail sector speak and notice the same sentiments are expressed across all econ sectors