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kenolkobil returns to profit in Q1 2013
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ngapat
#1 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 6:43:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 930
Applause
http://www.kenolkobil.co...S/2013_restructuring.pdf
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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Realtreaty
#2 Posted : Friday, May 24, 2013 9:58:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,389
Great, the great KK is combing its hair again using a comb than fingers. They have now a Chairman to be and a CEO aka Segman who will not tire b4 he put KK where it belongs. With all that I expect 50cents fy dividend, or a sale of company or partner. With the new Gova we might see project Chui partnership of NOCK-KOBIL! Expect a Rally to 12Kes soon.
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FUNKY
#3 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 12:24:24 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Will the 10 percent rule be applicable on Monday?
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guru267
#4 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 3:55:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
No net profit which means Q1 EPS is still negative! Kwani segman thinks we don't care about depreciation, interest, tax and amortization???

All that talk about non recurring restructuring expenses will destroy any 2013 earnings Sad

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, May 25, 2013 3:57 AM | Reason: Not specified
mwanahisa
#5 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 10:47:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
guru267 wrote:
No net profit which means Q1 EPS is still negative! Kwani segman thinks we don't care about depreciation, interest, tax and amortization???

All that talk about non recurring restructuring expenses will destroy any 2013 earnings Sad



I agree with g267 on this. If the figures were sufficiently rosy, KK would have produced an actual set of accounts for Q1 2013.

Admittedly, the trajectory for the year certainly sounds a lot better than last year (Of course almost anything would have to be better than 2013).

I suspect that this update has been released primarily to mollify shareholders ahead of the upcoming AGM.

While I agree that there appears to be some improvement, it is clear that there is a long road ahead before we can see a proper turnaround. As a consequence, I would sell into any upside on this announcement. I will of course continue taking speculative positions on this counter as I have successfully done a number of times this year, taking advantage of any significant price dips to buy and selling whenever the opportunity presents itself.
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the deal
#6 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 12:06:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
JIS gives updates...heck he was giving updates last year when thing were going wrong...if you read the updates keenly things were messed up last year.

1. EBITDA means Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation & Ammortisation

2. EBITDA=is equal to Operating Profit

3. From our definition of EBITDA above we can see that KK has made a profit after catering for admin & operating costs and forex losses which amounted to Sh2.2Bn in H1 2011. Note I'm using H1 2011 because H1 2012 was an anomaly due to the huge forex hedge losses.

4. From EBITDA we only deduct two items to get Pretax Profit/Loss
A. Finance costs
B. Depreciation & Ammortization
These amounted to Sh1.48Bn in H1 2012 when interest rates were probably at an all time high. Expect that figure to be much lower in H1 2013 if the current downward adjustment in lending rates & tight inventory control are to go by.
5. Lets assume this EBITDA is Sh2.5Bn & Depreciation & finance costs remain at Sh1.48Bn...it easily translates to a pretax profit of Sh1Bn still lower than what KK used to do.
6. In 2013 we are looking at getting back on the road...its a recovery year...it can be weak or strong but I expect a strong recovery. A FY EPS of Sh1 is strong...this could easily jump to Sh2.5 in 2014.
7. Do I like KK more now? Yes I do. I think KK is now ready to operate in a price control downstream environment.
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, May 25, 2013 12:10 PM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 7:17:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Interesting.
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guru267
#8 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 9:16:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
JIS gives updates...heck he was giving updates last year when thing were going wrong...if you read the updates keenly things were messed up last year.

1. EBITDA means Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation & Ammortisation

2. EBITDA=is equal to Operating Profit

3. From our definition of EBITDA above we can see that KK has made a profit after catering for admin & operating costs and forex losses which amounted to Sh2.2Bn in H1 2011. Note I'm using H1 2011 because H1 2012 was an anomaly due to the huge forex hedge losses.

4. From EBITDA we only deduct two items to get Pretax Profit/Loss
A. Finance costs
B. Depreciation & Ammortization
These amounted to Sh1.48Bn in H1 2012 when interest rates were probably at an all time high. Expect that figure to be much lower in H1 2013 if the current downward adjustment in lending rates & tight inventory control are to go by.
5. Lets assume this EBITDA is Sh2.5Bn & Depreciation & finance costs remain at Sh1.48Bn...it easily translates to a pretax profit of Sh1Bn still lower than what KK used to do.
6. In 2013 we are looking at getting back on the road...its a recovery year...it can be weak or strong but I expect a strong recovery. A FY EPS of Sh1 is strong...this could easily jump to Sh2.5 in 2014.
7. Do I like KK more now? Yes I do. I think KK is now ready to operate in a price control downstream environment.


@the deal what if EBITDA is just +50 cents or 1bob... Isn't that a positive result??
What then would happen to the net result??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Saturday, May 25, 2013 11:48:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
FUNKY wrote:
Will the 10 percent rule be applicable on Monday?


That thing Segman has released is not material announcement. Its just creating confusion. .... Someone tell him at the AGM to start giving quarterly results. Too bad am not a shareholder at the moment i could have told him myself!!!
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VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Sunday, May 26, 2013 12:37:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
Will the 10 percent rule be applicable on Monday?


That thing Segman has released is not material announcement. Its just creating confusion. .... Someone tell him at the AGM to start giving quarterly results. Too bad am not a shareholder at the moment i could have told him myself!!!
Buy 100 shares on Monday & bring the Contract Note with you to the AGM. Then tell him yourself. Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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