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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
obiero
#231 Posted : Saturday, May 11, 2013 2:15:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,280
Location: nairobi
PKoli wrote:
It is long since I last speculated with KQ. There seems to be some significant interest in this stock lately. I will speculate by asking myself, how low can it go from current prices. I think we are likely to see some minor upward movements. My guess is 30% by end of the year.

All negative information has been factored into current price. This counter is at a throw away price and makes for very sensible investment noting emerging economic developments in East Africa and Africa as a whole. In three years it will be trading at KES 75 or higher.
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
murchr
#232 Posted : Sunday, May 12, 2013 5:45:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
wilyum wrote:
emirates is going up,why not this one...Naikuru shouldd go!!!!


emirTES

Thats why Naikuni says the business model of KQ has to change, they need their own planes not leased planes so far KLM has been benefiting from KQs current business model.

How does KLM benefit from the current business model?


@VVS renting aircrafts dents into the profits of any airline, hence it makes sense to acquire new crafts and keep them for their full lifespan 30 years or so and lease at the very minimum.

Emirates, Etihad and southwest are the airlines that make me differ with Buffet.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#233 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 6:28:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
wilyum wrote:
emirates is going up,why not this one...Naikuru shouldd go!!!!


emirTES

Thats why Naikuni says the business model of KQ has to change, they need their own planes not leased planes so far KLM has been benefiting from KQs current business model.

How does KLM benefit from the current business model?


@VVS renting aircrafts dents into the profits of any airline, hence it makes sense to acquire new crafts and keep them for their full lifespan 30 years or so and lease at the very minimum.

Emirates, Etihad and southwest are the airlines that make me differ with Buffet.
So I ask, again, How does KLM benefit from the current business model?

When airlines buy aircraft, who pays the interest? Who pays for maintenance? What happens if after 20 years the plane is no longer competitive?

[I am not saying renting/leasing is better than buying but it depends on multiple variables]

Do you have Etihad's financial information?
Is Emirates publicly traded? Many airlines [I can't confirm if it is true] claim Emirates receives subsidies from Dubai.
Southwest - An exception as is RyanAir [in Europe].

And all said & done, I don't argue with WB. His long-term batting average is spectacular. Far better than most (if not all) folks I know.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#234 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 8:00:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
wilyum wrote:
emirates is going up,why not this one...Naikuru shouldd go!!!!


emirTES

Thats why Naikuni says the business model of KQ has to change, they need their own planes not leased planes so far KLM has been benefiting from KQs current business model.

How does KLM benefit from the current business model?


@VVS renting aircrafts dents into the profits of any airline, hence it makes sense to acquire new crafts and keep them for their full lifespan 30 years or so and lease at the very minimum.

Emirates, Etihad and southwest are the airlines that make me differ with Buffet.
So I ask, again, How does KLM benefit from the current business model?

When airlines buy aircraft, who pays the interest? Who pays for maintenance? What happens if after 20 years the plane is no longer competitive?

[I am not saying renting/leasing is better than buying but it depends on multiple variables]

Do you have Etihad's financial information?
Is Emirates publicly traded? Many airlines [I can't confirm if it is true] claim Emirates receives subsidies from Dubai.
Southwest - An exception as is RyanAir [in Europe].

And all said & done, I don't argue with WB. His long-term batting average is spectacular. Far better than most (if not all) folks I know.


VVS When a plane is leased, it has to fly for it to make returns, when you own a plane, you can ground it when business is not so good. That is what KLM did, it grounded some of its fleet when business went down and leased some out, KQ has leased several 777 and 767s.

On maintanace and interest, the leasing price has already covered this because of the risks involved. Etihad trades on the Saudi stock exchange i guess there's info there on its structure.

I respect Buffet, but the man isn't always right, he deserves his opinion tho, as someone else has said here before, he's abit boring.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
VituVingiSana
#235 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 8:52:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
wilyum wrote:
emirates is going up,why not this one...Naikuru shouldd go!!!!


emirTES

Thats why Naikuni says the business model of KQ has to change, they need their own planes not leased planes so far KLM has been benefiting from KQs current business model.

How does KLM benefit from the current business model?


@VVS renting aircrafts dents into the profits of any airline, hence it makes sense to acquire new crafts and keep them for their full lifespan 30 years or so and lease at the very minimum.

Emirates, Etihad and southwest are the airlines that make me differ with Buffet.
So I ask, again, How does KLM benefit from the current business model?

When airlines buy aircraft, who pays the interest? Who pays for maintenance? What happens if after 20 years the plane is no longer competitive?

[I am not saying renting/leasing is better than buying but it depends on multiple variables]

Do you have Etihad's financial information?
Is Emirates publicly traded? Many airlines [I can't confirm if it is true] claim Emirates receives subsidies from Dubai.
Southwest - An exception as is RyanAir [in Europe].

And all said & done, I don't argue with WB. His long-term batting average is spectacular. Far better than most (if not all) folks I know.


VVS When a plane is leased, it has to fly for it to make returns, when you own a plane, you can ground it when business is not so good. That is what KLM did, it grounded some of its fleet when business went down and leased some out, KQ has leased several 777 and 767s.

On maintanace and interest, the leasing price has already covered this because of the risks involved. Etihad trades on the Saudi stock exchange i guess there's info there on its structure.

I respect Buffet, but the man isn't always right, he deserves his opinion tho, as someone else has said here before, he's abit boring.
Of course! How could I forget that a plane that is 'owned' has no costs e.g. interest & depreciation.
WB loves boring. That's what makes money. 100% batting average? No. Better than 99.999999999% of the population? Yes.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#236 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 9:04:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
wilyum wrote:
emirates is going up,why not this one...Naikuru shouldd go!!!!


emirTES

Thats why Naikuni says the business model of KQ has to change, they need their own planes not leased planes so far KLM has been benefiting from KQs current business model.

How does KLM benefit from the current business model?


@VVS renting aircrafts dents into the profits of any airline, hence it makes sense to acquire new crafts and keep them for their full lifespan 30 years or so and lease at the very minimum.

Emirates, Etihad and southwest are the airlines that make me differ with Buffet.
So I ask, again, How does KLM benefit from the current business model?

When airlines buy aircraft, who pays the interest? Who pays for maintenance? What happens if after 20 years the plane is no longer competitive?

[I am not saying renting/leasing is better than buying but it depends on multiple variables]

Do you have Etihad's financial information?
Is Emirates publicly traded? Many airlines [I can't confirm if it is true] claim Emirates receives subsidies from Dubai.
Southwest - An exception as is RyanAir [in Europe].

And all said & done, I don't argue with WB. His long-term batting average is spectacular. Far better than most (if not all) folks I know.


VVS When a plane is leased, it has to fly for it to make returns, when you own a plane, you can ground it when business is not so good. That is what KLM did, it grounded some of its fleet when business went down and leased some out, KQ has leased several 777 and 767s.

On maintanace and interest, the leasing price has already covered this because of the risks involved. Etihad trades on the Saudi stock exchange i guess there's info there on its structure.

I respect Buffet, but the man isn't always right, he deserves his opinion tho, as someone else has said here before, he's abit boring.
Of course! How could I forget that a plane that is 'owned' has no costs e.g. interest & depreciation.
WB loves boring. That's what makes money. 100% batting average? No. Better than 99.999999999% of the population? Yes.


Its no secret that the venture is capital intensive, but if one can get cheap financing, why not?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
SittingPretty
#237 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 6:03:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/16/2013
Posts: 123
Location: MSA
PKoli wrote:
It is long since I last speculated with KQ. There seems to be some significant interest in this stock lately. I will speculate by asking myself, how low can it go from current prices. I think we are likely to see some minor upward movements. My guess is 30% by end of the year.

Have we seen the worst of this stock, it my not be as resilient as KK!
Timely advice is as lovely as golden apples in a silver basket. Proverbs 25:11
jerry
#238 Posted : Monday, May 13, 2013 9:47:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
SittingPretty wrote:
PKoli wrote:
It is long since I last speculated with KQ. There seems to be some significant interest in this stock lately. I will speculate by asking myself, how low can it go from current prices. I think we are likely to see some minor upward movements. My guess is 30% by end of the year.

Have we seen the worst of this stock, it my not be as resilient as KK!

I'm also more confident with oil!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Kausha
#239 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2013 10:03:38 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Lets do our homework. KQ does not lease any 767 or 777 from KLM. It has only leased a few 737's for short to medium haul routes. Why would they lease 777's yet there's are not fully utilized. I prefer to buy into airlines with leased planes just like I love manufacturers who soak debt and produce consistent return. Leased planes put discipline in management of an airline.

It's incorrect to say purchased planes are cheaper because when business ain't great you park the damn planes. All planes have by and large simmilar costs but the difference is cashflow movement. When you park a purchased plane during market down turns you are paying for - parking fees, cabin crew costs, cockpit crew costs, engineers costs, offices on your routes and their staff costs, insurance premiums, interest and loan repayments etc. I would rather a leased plane because it incurs all other costs but importantly it keeps management honest and puts pressure on them to generate cashflows to fund plane lease payments.
VituVingiSana
#240 Posted : Tuesday, May 14, 2013 10:43:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,366
Location: Nairobi
Kausha wrote:
Lets do our homework. KQ does not lease any 767 or 777 from KLM. It has only leased a few 737's for short to medium haul routes. Why would they lease 777's yet there's are not fully utilized. I prefer to buy into airlines with leased planes just like I love manufacturers who soak debt and produce consistent return. Leased planes put discipline in management of an airline.

It's incorrect to say purchased planes are cheaper because when business ain't great you park the damn planes. All planes have by and large simmilar costs but the difference is cashflow movement. When you park a purchased plane during market down turns you are paying for - parking fees, cabin crew costs, cockpit crew costs, engineers costs, offices on your routes and their staff costs, insurance premiums, interest and loan repayments etc. I would rather a leased plane because it incurs all other costs but importantly it keeps management honest and puts pressure on them to generate cashflows to fund plane lease payments.
Amen!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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