how far down is this going?

Left HFCK at KES 22.50

Ericsson, perhaps you might want to give us a range for profit growth thereby elaborating further on what you mean by stellar results.

I think Coop may not manage more than 20-25% (this would still be impressive) growth in PAT this year for the following reasons:
1.The greenfield operation in South Sudan is likely to depress profits in the short run due to the set-up costs for which there will be no immediate return.
2.In 2011, Coop had a disastrous year, hence in 2012, the results were a lot higher than 2011. In 2012 Coop therefore had the benefit of coming off a low base, which flattered their results. It will not be the case this year.
3. The rebate on taxes (5 years from the listing date) that CoopBank has been enjoying will soon come to an end, if not in 2013, then certainly in 2014.

It looks like we are generally in agreement that CoopBank will post some growth in their profits. The difference is that I am not bullish with regard to the quantum of growth. While you expect stellar results, I expect moderate growth. I actually think my estimate might actually be on the higher side.

Note that CoopBank's EPS in Q1 2012 was a rather high Kshs 0.56 while the full year's EPS works out to an average of Kshs 0.46. This declines to 43 cents when you take out Q1 results from the equation. To generate 20% growth in EPS in Q1 2013 vis-a-vis 2012, they will need to have made 67 cents in Q1. Methinks, they will not manage it, but we will see. They will probably improve in other quarters, but we will probably start off the year with some disappointments.

Well... Coop Bank might just see another Shs 25,000,000 in income/recoveries!
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/152pfwi/-/index.html

This boosts confidence in the value of the share, a similar effect accrued when a company's CEO owns a considerable share in the company. The expected effect of this action is to either move the share price up or support it from dips; it is not the only factor to consider.

The Q1 2013 results will be indicative of the direction this share will take in the short term. If it can achieve the approx. 20% rise in earnings the rest of the tier 1 banks seem to be doing, then a 10% short term upside potential is possible. However, a flat Q1 2013 may grant your wish of Ksh 15.

Happy hunting.