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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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mwekez@ji
#3081 Posted : Friday, April 19, 2013 4:59:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
hisah wrote:
Sanity is back on this media counter... Waiting for EABL, ARM and at some point Mpesa bank to mirror the same. Those discounts will eventually come.



So far the huge volume seen this week has not propped up the boat with FTSE NSE indices sliding the most today. I expect NSE20 to close below 4900 handle today. 4860 was the open for the month. If NSE20 closes below that level it will trigger a monthly reversal, which means May and possibly June will see more selling...

In TA's candlestick pattern analysis a shooting star is already forming on the monthly chart, which means selling pressure is now increasing since the first day of trading began @5030 and we are ending lower than that point...

Illustration courtesy of tradeforextrading.com


This is why I talked of selling some of my VIP tickets since I had already seen the show...


Something that the NMG chart is not saying is that the counter had a bonus in ratio of 1:5 and a final dividend of KES 7.50. The books have closed and the ex all price should be KES 326/- (from the KES 400/-). The plunge to the current VWAP of KES 287/- is an overreaction by 13.5%. Any further downfall is welcomed for the buyers who want to re-enter/enter the counter. I expect the counter to soar as the market realizes that the counter benefited from elections and will report healthy 1H13 & healthy FY13 in line with econ factors.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, April 19, 2013 5:01 PM | Reason: Not specified
mwekez@ji
#3082 Posted : Friday, April 19, 2013 5:04:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
sparkly wrote:
Was a sweet ride on the media counter. Sold my last lot at 370. My re-entry will be between 180-190.


smile ... Mi2 looking forward to good re-entry level Pray
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hisah
#3083 Posted : Friday, April 19, 2013 8:24:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE wrote:

Week on week, turnover soared to Kes.3.2bn from Kes.1.5bn posted the previous week, the number of shares traded stood at 178M against 102M the previous week.

NSE 20 Share Index shaved-off a total of 152.21 points during the week to stand at 4868.29.

All Share Index (NASI) was down 2.23% during the week to settle at 118.99
points.


4860...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#3084 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 9:01:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
NSE wrote:

Week on week, turnover soared to Kes.3.2bn from Kes.1.5bn posted the previous week, the number of shares traded stood at 178M against 102M the previous week.

NSE 20 Share Index shaved-off a total of 152.21 points during the week to stand at 4868.29.

All Share Index (NASI) was down 2.23% during the week to settle at 118.99
points.


4860...

Interesting.
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Cde Monomotapa
#3085 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 9:09:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I joined Team Bear late last week. Got concerned about the smoke: larger volumes & signal: lower lows. By yesterday, the Bulls & Bears seemed to have gone into caucus with lower volumes but in favor of Team Bear. We'll resume this next week. #Awash
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, April 20, 2013 9:16 AM | Reason: Team Bear
obiero
#3086 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 9:44:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,211
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
4 counters accounted for around 87% of market turnover of 1.194 Billion - KCB - 405M, EABL - 280M, Safaricom - 230M and Equity 119M

Yep, seen the decent turnover volume too. However, FTSE NSE15 which comprises the above counters slid by 0.39%. W/W FTSE NSE15 is 1.34% down and lower than Monday's open @158.26. Friday needs to close at the same level or above if indeed this volume is support.


@Hisah, what do the cartoons say about Roar. Are we hitting 50 anytime soon or are we likely to go below 40?

Above 40 simba is fighting a lot of resistance (selling). Price has stalled for a while, thus neutral in direction. Need more time to digest yesterday's huge volume. By end month we'll know.

Likely to dip to KES 32.5 on release of Q1 with further slide to KES 30 on book closure

KQ ABP 4.26
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the deal
#3087 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 11:04:55 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Don't be suprised by the current market move. Q2 2013 market forecast can be found here http://www.contrarianinv...013-strategy-and-outlook
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symbols
#3088 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 11:13:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I joined Team Bear late last week. Got concerned about the smoke: larger volumes & signal: lower lows. By yesterday, the Bulls & Bears seemed to have gone into caucus with lower volumes but in favor of Team Bear. We'll resume this next week. #Awash


Indeed,very confusing week.
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kryptonite
#3089 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 11:33:19 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:

Something that the NMG chart is not saying is that the counter had a bonus in ratio of 1:5 and a final dividend of KES 7.50. The books have closed and the ex all price should be KES 326/- (from the KES 400/-). The plunge to the current VWAP of KES 287/- is an overreaction by 13.5%. Any further downfall is welcomed for the buyers who want to re-enter/enter the counter. I expect the counter to soar as the market realizes that the counter benefited from elections and will report healthy 1H13 & healthy FY13 in line with econ factors.



Waiting for further correction to enter this counter.
The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Cde Monomotapa
#3090 Posted : Saturday, April 20, 2013 12:53:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=the deal]Don't be suprised by the current market move. Q2 2013 market forecast can be found here http://www.contrarianinv...13-strategy-and-outlook[/quote]
Interesting.
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