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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#2971 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 10:59:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Those firms holding yen loans.... kaching.... kengen, eapcc... any other?




With the current BoJ debasement madness as they try to fight deflation by throwing the sink into the work, the yen collapse versus other ccys will be crazy. I'm watching the JGB (Jap Gov Bonds) and it's a bloodbath there. I wonder how the longterm holders of yen bonds (pension funds etc) will stay put.

Next it'll be cheaper to import jap cars direct via yens than USD.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2972 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 11:06:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I salute all Chiefs! 2ndly, my Q2 stance is to Hold the lines (no [new] buying/selling*) and find the 'new normal' whereby I concur with @guru on possibilities of double digit p/e & also +5% Div. yields being rare going-forward.

Furthermore, @hisah, expect private sector to go ahead of GoK in activity as we all know that Kenya Vision 2030 is the overall blue print & I don't expect a adverse departure from it in a Jubilee govt.


Uhuru targeting 10% economic growth by 2015! If achieved NSE market p/e ratio will definitely be in the 30s!

And paka will be at a P/E of 100... That will be all time madness...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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obiero
#2973 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 11:26:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*

KQ ABP 4.26
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2974 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 11:56:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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obiero
#2975 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 12:12:54 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
obiero, you had yet another drink at the Exchange bar?;-)

haha. indeed. i have a lot of information at the moment and i am tryin hard to separate fact from fiction but all indications are that 2013 is going to be a poor year for banks. current stock values across most financial firms will soon be revealed to be unjustified. kuna watu wataachwa uchi hapa when the tide goes out

KQ ABP 4.26
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the deal
#2976 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 12:19:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
obiero wrote:
you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*

This could be true...Q1 could be hit by costs & low loan uptake amid a squeeze in NIM but one can't forecast FY 13 this early....alot could still happen...earnings have been volatile Q\Q mainly due to the cost line.
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mwekez@ji
#2977 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 1:22:47 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
obiero wrote:
you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*


Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom
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Cde Monomotapa
#2978 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 1:45:39 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1?
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mwekez@ji
#2979 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 1:56:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I thought we were through with politics/elections on the economy in Q1?


Yea ... Q2 should be our gauge
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obiero
#2980 Posted : Sunday, April 07, 2013 1:57:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
obiero wrote:
you can tell that NSE is overvalued when the green bank, trading at multiyear highs, is set to post an almost reduced Q1 '13 PBT with high possibility of lower profits in FY2013 compared to FY2012 *thankmelater*


Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Green Bank is not NSE. NSE is the 61 listed companies and NSE still has alot of headroom

A good number of big companies are having a rough time. Think EABL, TOTAL, KK, KQ, NBK, CMC, EABL, WTK.. Kuna kitu watu hawaoni..

KQ ABP 4.26
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