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How to tell NSE has bottomed out

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mwekez@ji		#2861 Posted : Sunday, March 31, 2013 11:54:33 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		Supreme Court unanimously upholds IEBC presidential results #How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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mwekez@ji		#2862 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 1:03:22 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		Economy gets a boost from court decision on poll #How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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murchr		#2863 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 1:35:51 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		From history who knows how long our market cycles lasts from bear to bull and back to bear? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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hisah		#2864 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 5:13:41 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		murchr wrote: From history who knows how long our market cycles lasts from bear to bull and back to bear? Politricks change used to a good pointer, but too many factors in the mix now with foreigners & hydrocarbons. Best cycle indicator is Tbill rates, inflation & KES strength for now. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#2865 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 5:41:54 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		guru267 wrote: hisah wrote: Mukiri wrote: hisah wrote: Political barrier partially removed. ICC barrier still pending for the fearful bull. If April 9 is gazetted a holiday it means NSE will have 2 weeks of 4 trading days each. This should elicit some fierce bidding as the trading contest ensues on the short trading period within those 2 weeks. I will be selling to wanjikus at this point... And if the counters keep going higher and higher after you sell? At this point many are late for the party! Think of it like buying an early ticket or a show ticket at the gate. The gate ticket is always expensive and yet you don't get the best sitting place... So I'll be selling my VIP ticket at the gate as I've already seen the show! Buying in a euphoria (buying frenzy or bid-fest cocktail) will always get you trapped and you'll be buying the top Then the same lot will sell in a huff when they experience no demand as the DJ stops the music. Then the discounts become attractive once again and the rally begins. Markets are not that hard to understand if you remove the emotions. Remember there will always be a next bus. Never rush your investment goals... @hisah the bull that is coming is simply a re rating process as Kenya*s political risk profile falls... Stocks with P/Es of 9-12 will rally to P/Es of 12-15 and stocks at 3-6 P/E should see the largest rally to 7-9 P/E ratios.. Definitely a re-rate is coming. But most bluechips are too lofty for now. They're the ones that plot the indices' direction. A euphoria push past 5100 on NSE20 in a short period is unsustainable unless huge volume comes in. My euphoria participation will be to take profit. Only chase fair valued or cheap valued counters. NSE20 has a gap between 4600 & 4700 as mini euphoria spiked. Gaps always get filled (a shakeout of weak hands for discount bargains). If that gap is revisited with huge volume, the next bull will be ready and with more power than the current teen bull. Hydrocarbons will be the mother booster... Solid legs. The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma		#2866 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 7:43:27 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi		Our exit targets are coming earlier than expected. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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kyt		#2867 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 7:58:20 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/7/2007 Posts: 2,182		It indeed seems so. LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
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guru267		#2868 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 9:31:55 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		hisah wrote: The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! Lets say UMK delivers on his promise to raise 300billionKshs Per year through government savings in efficiency, reducing wastage, slashing GOK wages etc etc If these 300billion savings are then deployed to other relevant sectors that are currently starving for debt, won't this ease up on the treasury market (bills & bonds)!?? Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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hisah		#2869 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 9:53:09 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		guru267 wrote: hisah wrote: The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! If by year end NSE20 rallies 30%, 5400 can be achieved. My only concern is many bluechip counters will overheat & they'll require to report sizable profits to sustain those expensive prices. At such levels discounts disappear and selling takes over. However, my expensive market thought can be negated if banks agree to play ball by lowering lending rates as well as cbk cuts the banks cash reserve ratio (a mwiraria move). This will bring in more powder to drive and sustain prices up. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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sparkly		#2870 Posted : Monday, April 01, 2013 11:15:31 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		hisah wrote: guru267 wrote: hisah wrote: The likely euphoria this week will create another gap into solid resistance levels (5000-5100). Gaps are not solid support legs. Lets see my friend how solid these resistance levels are! I tend to feel most stocks will re rate upwards 20-50% and maybe that will create a new resistance at about 5,400-5,500! If by year end NSE20 rallies 30%, 5400 can be achieved. My only concern is many bluechip counters will overheat & they'll require to report sizable profits to sustain those expensive prices. At such levels discounts disappear and selling takes over. However, my expensive market thought can be negated if banks agree to play ball by lowering lending rates as well as cbk cuts the banks cash reserve ratio (a mwiraria move). This will bring in more powder to drive and sustain prices up. NSE index is up 14% ytd while NASI is up 20% ytd... Life is short. Live passionately.
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