ICC thresholds are detailed, but one of the major one is the existence of an organization, in uk's case that was easy to prove since they implicated the governments machinery - in wsr case the prosecutor went a long way in trying to establish the "organization" and the pre trial judges agreed to the same so one the main threshold remains.

The biggest hurdle in both cases remains establishing the threshold set out in Article 7(2)(a)of the Rome Statute particularly proving "attack directed against any civilian population’ means a course of conduct involving the multiple commission of acts referred to in paragraph 1 [of Article 7] against any civilian population, pursuant to or in furtherance of a State or organizational policy to commit such attack"

Now that Muthaura and Ali are out,it will be harder to prove "State" policy. It will also be harder to prove "organizational policy" with the Mungiki witness' withdrawal of his evidence. Furthermore one has to show that Mungiki was acting as an organisation having the state's capabilities or in concert with the state hence the strenuous efforts by Ocampo to connect Mungiki and the State e.g. the allegation that security agencies were asked not to interfere with the alleged "Mungiki's" advance to Naivasha.

Without ali and muthaura, uk's case is as good as dead, what remains to be seen is what happens to wsr - as i said the ICC still has a lot of politics involved so you never know

What would happen to Kenya if all witnesses walked out?

I see the ICC and the world looking at us with suspicion. In the end, we will all be suspicious of each other.

Foreign policy and domestic policy are one.

My take
His case will linger along till 2017, where he will need to co-operate for Kamwana's second term..
In 2022, if he is patient enough. He will have a free hand to run, but by then half the voters would have been swayed by a new Kid on the block.. my guess is PK... and 07 PEV's will be historical injustices that need to be dealt with..

Scenario 2.
He will demand his case be dealt with as well, before 2017 lest he takes his votes elsewhere...

As a friend said..
Kuwa mpole uskie WSR akisema.."Simnamjua yule jamaa wa ma *&^**?"

My prayer is that non of it happens..