hisah wrote:I decided to data mine this thread that I started to see if the forecasts added up (@chessmaster the data miner can mine more
).
All these cartoons below suggested what was coming... I'll continue drawing cartoons to tell the story.
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=334436#post334436
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=338862#post338862
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=344155#post344155
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=349333#post349333
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=349504#post349504 - response to @mukiri about holding cash on post #1819
When I started this thread I pointed out some conditions that setup a market to vault. NSE20 is coming from the political fever pitch condition. This is still not yet done and dusted since there's the election contention case as well as the ICC overhang barrier. This is why I still don't see this being an extreme bull! There's still fear and that's why a lot of guys are expecting it to crash. The extreme bull will come when the fear of buying will not be present like at the moment. Also a number of IPOs will be flipping on listing and wanjikus will be having lotsa fun. Phrases like 'just buy it'll go up' will be very common. That will be one crowded bus full of 'bull-sterone' and the selloff will be awesome and wanjikus will be heard again saying 'never again am I buying stocks'.
Wash, rinse, repeat as the next cycle restarts...
Forecasts have been generally good so far except for effects of inflation and elections where taking the opposite position worked.In both TAs and fundies,timing was the most difficult to achieve.
Let me share some findings - When its bottomed and thriving:
1.When brokers stop contacting people for great deals.
2.Very few threads on stocks on Wazua.
3.When brokers are getting profits.
4.When the investor section is more or just as popular as the politics section.
5.When 'wanjiku's' start asking for investment advice and more frequently.
6.When ATS and Online trading systems stop failing - Note,I have noticed mystocks was failing when the market was upbeat.
7.When companies show they are more resilient than market conditions.
8.When Wazuans/Wazualets stop arguing over the market and positions.
9.When there are large and consistent trades.
10.When people are complaining about their cash positions
11.When people start focusing on exit targets rather than looking for bargains.
12.When people stop clinging on to a few shares as indicators.
13.When speculation overrides sentiments.
14.When people are more concerned about TA than fundies.
15.When people throw out both fundies and TA out of the window.
16.When neveready is the highest gainer of the day.Actually happened!
17.When market returns surpass inflation.
18.When more and more companies are expanding.
19.When IPOs and rights issues are on the rise and oversubscribed.
20.When the media shifts from sugarcoating bad news to preaching the good news.
21.When people stop finding the alternative investment segment attractive.
22.When people are more worried about getting out than getting in.This works both ways,when people are feeling both the greed and fear.
23.When people have gotten used to a bear market and start predicting how low a share will go.
24.When NSE is more frequent and confident with their 'twirra' updates.
25.When people stop flattery and romance has bottomed.
26.When majority shares stop trading below,at or slighty above P/B and P/E's 'screaming at people to buy' them.
27.When wazuans/wazualets resurface.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go