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Kusadikika
#1 Posted : Sunday, March 10, 2013 3:46:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,723
Why were they so wrong?

The logical and not so logical explanations:

Kenyans lie. They never told the truth to the pollsters.

Defective sampling method. You call 10 people in North Horr and then 10 people in Kiambu and then 10 people in Emuria Dikiir then come up with a poll.

All pollsters were women and all the people polled were men.
Synovate: What candidate will you vote for?
Voter: Uhuru Kenyatta

S: Stop lying. Just tell me the truth.
V: I said Uhuru Kenyatta

S: I know you are lying, I know you will vote Raila.
V: OK I will vote for Raila.

S: Are you saying that just to please me. Just tell me the truth?
V: I said I will vote for Uhuru Kenyatta

S: I know you men, you can never tell the truth. I will write Raila.
V: Fine with me.
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Impunity
#2 Posted : Sunday, March 10, 2013 6:11:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,335
Location: Masada
Kusadikika wrote:
Why were they so wrong?

The logical and not so logical explanations:

Kenyans lie. They never told the truth to the pollsters.

Defective sampling method. You call 10 people in North Horr and then 10 people in Kiambu and then 10 people in Emuria Dikiir then come up with a poll.

All pollsters were women and all the people polled were men.
Synovate: What candidate will you vote for?
Voter: Uhuru Kenyatta

S: Stop lying. Just tell me the truth.
V: I said Uhuru Kenyatta

S: I know you are lying, I know you will vote Raila.
V: OK I will vote for Raila.

S: Are you saying that just to please me. Just tell me the truth?
V: I said I will vote for Uhuru Kenyatta

S: I know you men, you can never tell the truth. I will write Raila.
V: Fine with me.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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kollabo
#3 Posted : Sunday, March 10, 2013 9:13:43 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
@Kusadikika from the results only Smart Octopus gave credible opinion polls.
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dunkang
#4 Posted : Sunday, March 10, 2013 9:32:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Raila knew he was not popular and used pollsters to eliminate opponents.

Its a strategy to make voters change their mind about some contestants e.g to curb Mudavadi rising popularity after he left ODM, he had to 'potray' to the Luhya nation that MuDVD can't win using InfODMtrack. But he forgot to popularise PK so as to split UK votes.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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Kusadikika
#5 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 4:55:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,723
Peculiar Kenyan habits cannot be subjected to scientific scrutiny because they don't obey any known laws.
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Impunity
#6 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 9:09:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,335
Location: Masada
Kusadikika wrote:
Peculiar Kenyan habits cannot be subjected to scientific scrutiny because they don't obey any known laws.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

No empirical formulae can apply to Kenyans, they follow the wave.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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McReggae
#7 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 9:17:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
The polls were almost accurate if you take a uniform turnout, go to your excel spreadsheet and put the numbers!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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innairobi
#8 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 9:52:30 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2010
Posts: 845
- Interviewing people who had not registered as voters (upto 30% of interviewees)
- The unpredictable factor that is unequal turnout (Some Coast counties in the early 70s while Central counties at 95%)

All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
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