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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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jerry wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@hisah, calling for your update on which counters are looking bullish I'm also interested @hisah,... @hisah #Public demand
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,060 Location: nairobi
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techboy wrote:jerry wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:techboy wrote:now we start chasing stocks again ??? lol You need to revive your "These stocks will do well this week" segments/threads #publicdemand  who is the stocks Octopus?! @obiero. If only he could stop concentrating on hfck and kcb Haha. I vocally called out Equity too a few weeks back to break KES 30. Sorry to sound arrogant but on short-plays I doubt whether there is any better stock picker. I fully believe in myself!
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,060 Location: nairobi
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On an eight to twelve month horizon. KQ should not be left out of any investor's portfolio mix. Even if on a minimal basis, this share needs to be bought.
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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obiero wrote:techboy wrote:jerry wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:techboy wrote:now we start chasing stocks again ??? lol You need to revive your "These stocks will do well this week" segments/threads #publicdemand who is the stocks Octopus?! @obiero. If only he could stop concentrating on hfck and kcb Haha. I vocally called out Equity too a few weeks back to break KES 30. Sorry to sound arrogant but on short-plays I doubt whether there is any better stock picker. I fully believe in myself! thanks all. How far is NIC likely to go by bks clsr. Call it speculation! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mwekez@ji wrote:jerry wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@hisah, calling for your update on which counters are looking bullish I'm also interested @hisah,... @hisah #Public demand In Q1 where has the money flowed too? Banks? Manufacturing? Tourism? Telco? Insurance? Agri? Advertising/media?
If you dissect it this way it is easier to see where the money has flowed too. In my opinion while the econ stalled in Q1, money flowed to election campaigns benifiting ad/media sector, telco (more talk/mobile money/data) and insurance (political risk cover). So for H1 2013, these 3 sectors will mint money, which I expect will cover part of their H2 2013. Banks will definitely report a dismal Q1 2013, which will likely spill over into H1 2013 as well as manufacturing, which will have reduced production as the econ slowdown and even stood still last week.
As for agri, commodities still continue to tank internationally and any bad weather will fry them properly adding to last yr's losses. They also face a strong KES, which means less export revenues. Should everything go bad for agris, pure coffee plays will get the most hammering.
Tourism - this one died from Q4 2012. UK is now GoK head with an ICC overhang. I don't see any recovery soon. Unless the east tourists can replace those from the west.
That's how I see it for now.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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obiero wrote:On an eight to twelve month horizon. KQ should not be left out of any investor's portfolio mix. Even if on a minimal basis, this share needs to be bought. This counter has known long bears with very short but ecstatic bulls. Since March 2010, the counter has been in bear, what informs your bullish call going forward
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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And the other thing that makes me like NSE20 at the moment is the negative sentiment since Dec 2012 due to gloomy elections and now a UK presidency against all odds! All these have converged to make a very extreme negative sentiment cocktail (seasoned analysts plus wanjikus all in the same boat - perfect . Extreme sentiments always provide for heavy volatility, the grounds on which any trader dreams of $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:jerry wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@hisah, calling for your update on which counters are looking bullish I'm also interested @hisah,... @hisah #Public demand In Q1 where has the money flowed too? Banks? Manufacturing? Tourism? Telco? Insurance? Agri? Advertising/media?
If you dissect it this way it is easier to see where the money has flowed too. In my opinion while the econ stalled in Q1, money flowed to election campaigns benifiting ad/media sector, telco (more talk/mobile money/data) and insurance (political risk cover). So for H1 2013, these 3 sectors will mint money, which I expect will cover part of their H2 2013. Banks will definitely report a dismal Q1 2013, which will likely spill over into H1 2013 as well as manufacturing, which will have reduced production as the econ slowdown and even stood still last week.
As for agri, commodities still continue to tank internationally and any bad weather will fry them properly adding to last yr's losses. They also face a strong KES, which means less export revenues. Should everything go bad for agris, pure coffee plays will get the most hammering.
Tourism - this one died from Q4 2012. UK is now GoK head with an ICC overhang. I don't see any recovery soon. Unless the east tourists can replace those from the west.
That's how I see it for now.
Asante sana Bw Hisah. The insurance are surely a bet now that political risk covers have turned in their favour. I observe that the sector has also been undervalued. On Telco am not sure whether safcom is a bet at current price, same case with scangroup. Accesskenya is no go zone for a number of us. Will dissect NMG eN Standardgroup. #Muchas gracias
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@mwekezaji - I also sold 50% of mpesa bank as it stretched to 5.80 as well as KCB (post results). I also see mpesa bank as an expensive counter for now unless they can post 20B plus PBT. My interest though is captured by the mpesa momentum and soon mshwari. Don't ignore AK, the stock is behaving like something is in the offing just like KK in 2011 (insider buying). My bet for 2013 and I said this back in Jan is insurance. Currently boarded on JHL and CFCI. CIC I missed this one since I was looking at the expensive P/E which will now be reset by the huge PAT as per Coop bank's associate profits report. Scangroup - WPP is what is causing the overvaluation. NMG will clock past 300 by year end. Very solid bull for now. Once again I stress this point again. When everyone one is at the extreme end of things Mr Market will snap and run in the other direction. Bearish analysts as well as wanjikus is a perfect setup for Mr Market to run in the opposite direction to the disbelief of all... I continue to put my skin on the line... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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hisah wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:jerry wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:@hisah, calling for your update on which counters are looking bullish I'm also interested @hisah,... @hisah #Public demand In Q1 where has the money flowed too? Banks? Manufacturing? Tourism? Telco? Insurance? Agri? Advertising/media?
If you dissect it this way it is easier to see where the money has flowed too. In my opinion while the econ stalled in Q1, money flowed to election campaigns benifiting ad/media sector, telco (more talk/mobile money/data) and insurance (political risk cover). So for H1 2013, these 3 sectors will mint money, which I expect will cover part of their H2 2013. Banks will definitely report a dismal Q1 2013, which will likely spill over into H1 2013 as well as manufacturing, which will have reduced production as the econ slowdown and even stood still last week.
As for agri, commodities still continue to tank internationally and any bad weather will fry them properly adding to last yr's losses. They also face a strong KES, which means less export revenues. Should everything go bad for agris, pure coffee plays will get the most hammering.
Tourism - this one died from Q4 2012. UK is now GoK head with an ICC overhang. I don't see any recovery soon. Unless the east tourists can replace those from the west.
That's how I see it for now.
Its prety hard to find fault in your analysis hisa...tbills are slowly edging up as does inflation. But ad like to put that down to increased demand this past few months and improvng business data..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,060 Location: nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:On an eight to twelve month horizon. KQ should not be left out of any investor's portfolio mix. Even if on a minimal basis, this share needs to be bought. This counter has known long bears with very short but ecstatic bulls. Since March 2010, the counter has been in bear, what informs your bullish call going forward @mwekez@ji. the continuing aircraft deliveries in form of Embraers, fit perfectly for short-haul flights in Africa's relatively space limited airports. KQ are bound to increase their revenues in comparison to those of major competitors such as SA & Ethiopian that boast of 787's which are currently grounded.. IMO, they have a good plan that may be their silver bullet
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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...when our friends at Club SK shift their time, energy & capital to the Investor forums.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:...when our friends at Club SK shift their time, energy & capital to the Investor forums. ditto. and new/revival of "what to buy threads" The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,060 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:...when our friends at Club SK shift their time, energy & capital to the Investor forums. ditto. and new/revival of "what to buy threads" the nse has not bottomed out in an ideal sense. some key counters are trading at either 52 week or all time highs! these are dangerous times and as @stocksmaster said, holding onto cash is probably a better bet in Q1 for the uninitiated
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:...when our friends at Club SK shift their time, energy & capital to the Investor forums. ditto. and new/revival of "what to buy threads" ;-)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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obiero wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:obiero wrote:On an eight to twelve month horizon. KQ should not be left out of any investor's portfolio mix. Even if on a minimal basis, this share needs to be bought. This counter has known long bears with very short but ecstatic bulls. Since March 2010, the counter has been in bear, what informs your bullish call going forward @mwekez@ji. the continuing aircraft deliveries in form of Embraers, fit perfectly for short-haul flights in Africa's relatively space limited airports. KQ are bound to increase their revenues in comparison to those of major competitors such as SA & Ethiopian that boast of 787's which are currently grounded.. IMO, they have a good plan that may be their silver bullet I l<3ve wazuans....now people are finally getting the strategy ha! KQ's losses come about because of leasing and flying long range planes in distances where they shouldnt eg,... 767 shouldn't be flying to places like Malawi...but many are just too scared when the company seeks for loans. Its true Buffet hates airlines but that doesnt mean all airlines are not making money. KQ biggest adv is that the airspace is not crowded and it can make money if and when they focus right "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:techboy wrote:now we start chasing stocks again ??? lol You need to revive your "These stocks will do well this week" segments/threads #publicdemand Let me guess, his no.1 on the list will be Access "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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I expect the top 5 gainers to reach a maximum daily limit of 10%,if it doesnt happen,then uhurus presidency will have been received either negatively or wait and see by the market. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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murchr wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:techboy wrote:now we start chasing stocks again ??? lol You need to revive your "These stocks will do well this week" segments/threads #publicdemand Let me guess, his no.1 on the list will be Access I have a feeling he sold access kitambo.... he doesn't celebrate with the others.... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:I expect the top 5 gainers to reach a maximum daily limit of 10%,if it doesnt happen,then uhurus presidency will have been received either negatively or wait and see by the market. The market has been doing the opposite of what everyone logically expects, lets hope the trend doesn't continue. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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