- Kenyans can really show up to vote with turnout at 86%. The new constitution dispensation & the discussion around it seems to have been appreciated by the wananchi. This in a country without mandatory voting is probably a world record or close too.
-Pollsters have a lot to answer. While I do not fault them for not including turnout in their polls (not in the guidelines), I fault them for bad calls in counties such as Nairobi, North Eastern etc. They also either overestimated the support of the other candidates or middle class Kenyans who claimed to support Kiyiapi, Karua, Kenneth etc changed their vote to the more likely winners, or a combination of both. (The diaspora vote is very telling)
-Eugene Wamalwa will probably be Speaker of the Senate. Jubilee has 21 senators and will probably count on the 2 "Jubilee friendly" APK senators to make 23, Cord has 20, and Amani 4. With the magic number been 24, Amani is in a very strong position to negotiate with either major coalition. Expect a lot of background intrigue. No wonder Musalia came out and give a press conference congratulating the two.
The governor makeup is:
CORD:23 Jubilee:18 Amani:3 "Jubilee Friendly":2 Neutral:1 (Akaranga of PPK)
The National Assembly makeup is:
Jubilee:158 CORD:139 Amani:20 Eagle:2 Ind&Others:18
Jubilee has options to either cherry pick negotiations with the Eagle & Independent MPs to go over the 169 magic number or probably with Amani again since it would be hard to support legislation only in one house