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IEBC Official Results - Form 36 - Bomas of Kenya
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Shotgun wrote:Lolest! wrote:mukiha wrote:simonkabz wrote:[quote=mukiha]The GAP doesn't matter!!
The important magical figure is 5,884,544
Hit that and you are our next president without a run-off. It won't matter what the other guys get or how many are rejected!
HOW DO I GET THAT?
FACT: there are 14,352,545 voters
ASSUMPTION: the average 82% turnout will be maintained through out.
Therefore: 82% of 14,352,545 is 11,769,086.9 - this will be the total votes cast, including rejected votes.
50% of 11,769,086.9 is 5,884,543.45.
Constitution says winner must get "more than half of all the votes cast in the election" (I don't know where people got "50% plus one" from!!!)
Since fractional votes are not possible, we ROUND UP the 5,884,543.45 to get 5,884,544
Watch the tally and keep that magic number in mind. They both mean the same. 50% plus 1 vote is much more precise n clear.It is the minimum by which one can win. Suppose there are 9 votes cast
50% = 4.5
50% + 1 = 5.5
Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6
But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 5.
Now do you see the difference?[/quote] Mukiva you are too good!  So not all Wazuans know @Mukiha's side job  Don't argue with the man on numbers/figures. Btw, what is the difference between numbers and figures? I know...
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2009 Posts: 597
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mukiha wrote:Much Know wrote:Candidate Votes %
Uhuru 4835482 49.40316504
Raila 4316005 44.09577108
Madvd 358435 3.662059638
PK 59456 0.607450215
Dida 44784 0.457549287
Karua 35195 0.359580367
Kiyapi 30983 0.316547195
Muite 10812 0.11046407
Reject/S 96646
Total 9787798
223 Constituencies
Time 12:14pm
Now you understand why we must abandon talk of "50% + 1" and stick to the constitutional "more than half". The winning/losing margin could well be just that one vote! Ok now i hear the argument. The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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Hehehe, how many decimal places do we use. So far i am seeing 2 on TV. What if the leading candidate gets 49.946%
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/7/2012 Posts: 180
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mukiha wrote:simonkabz wrote:mukiha wrote:The GAP doesn't matter!!
The important magical figure is 5,884,544
Hit that and you are our next president without a run-off. It won't matter what the other guys get or how many are rejected!
HOW DO I GET THAT?
FACT: there are 14,352,545 voters
ASSUMPTION: the average 82% turnout will be maintained through out.
Therefore: 82% of 14,352,545 is 11,769,086.9 - this will be the total votes cast, including rejected votes.
50% of 11,769,086.9 is 5,884,543.45.
Constitution says winner must get "more than half of all the votes cast in the election" (I don't know where people got "50% plus one" from!!!)
Since fractional votes are not possible, we ROUND UP the 5,884,543.45 to get 5,884,544
Watch the tally and keep that magic number in mind. They both mean the same. 50% plus 1 vote is much more precise n clear.It is the minimum by which one can win. Suppose there are 9 votes cast 50% = 4.5 50% + 1 = 5.5 Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6 But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 5. Now do you see the difference? In comparing the two, you should have either rounded off to the nearest whole number for BOTH or left BOTH in decimal. Pls do it it & share the result. Suppose there are 9 votes cast 50% = 4.5 50% + 1 = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6) But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 4.5 + 1 as the least unit is 1. = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6) Now do you see there is no difference? Eagles don't flock, you have to find them one at a time.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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Lolest! wrote:mukiha wrote:simonkabz wrote:[quote=mukiha]The GAP doesn't matter!!
The important magical figure is 5,884,544
Hit that and you are our next president without a run-off. It won't matter what the other guys get or how many are rejected!
HOW DO I GET THAT?
FACT: there are 14,352,545 voters
ASSUMPTION: the average 82% turnout will be maintained through out.
Therefore: 82% of 14,352,545 is 11,769,086.9 - this will be the total votes cast, including rejected votes.
50% of 11,769,086.9 is 5,884,543.45.
Constitution says winner must get "more than half of all the votes cast in the election" (I don't know where people got "50% plus one" from!!!)
Since fractional votes are not possible, we ROUND UP the 5,884,543.45 to get 5,884,544
Watch the tally and keep that magic number in mind. They both mean the same. 50% plus 1 vote is much more precise n clear.It is the minimum by which one can win. Suppose there are 9 votes cast
50% = 4.5
50% + 1 = 5.5
Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6
But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 5.
Now do you see the difference?[/quote] Mukiva you are too good! @Mukiha is right but in all cases the difference will only be 1. i.e whether you use 9,99,999,9999,99999 the difference btw more than half and 50% +1 is still the figure 1. However as the no. of votes cast increases this 1 difference becomes insignificant i.e. 1/9=11.1% 1/99=1.01% 1/999=0.1% 1/9999=0.01% 1/99999=0.001% Hence, for simplicity, 50%+1 and more than half are, for practical purposes, the same thing. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/9/2008 Posts: 2,824
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holycow wrote:Hehehe, how many decimal places do we use. So far i am seeing 2 on TV. What if the leading candidate gets 49.946% wewe hachana na maneno ya decimal places... stick to "gets more than half" and you are safe. When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/7/2012 Posts: 180
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mukiha wrote:simonkabz wrote:mukiha wrote:The GAP doesn't matter!!
The important magical figure is 5,884,544
Hit that and you are our next president without a run-off. It won't matter what the other guys get or how many are rejected!
HOW DO I GET THAT?
FACT: there are 14,352,545 voters
ASSUMPTION: the average 82% turnout will be maintained through out.
Therefore: 82% of 14,352,545 is 11,769,086.9 - this will be the total votes cast, including rejected votes.
50% of 11,769,086.9 is 5,884,543.45.
Constitution says winner must get "more than half of all the votes cast in the election" (I don't know where people got "50% plus one" from!!!)
Since fractional votes are not possible, we ROUND UP the 5,884,543.45 to get 5,884,544
Watch the tally and keep that magic number in mind. They both mean the same. 50% plus 1 vote is much more precise n clear.It is the minimum by which one can win. Suppose there are 9 votes cast 50% = 4.5 50% + 1 = 5.5 Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6 But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 5. Now do you see the difference?  In comparing the two, you should have either rounded off to the nearest whole number for BOTH or left BOTH in decimal. Pls do it it & share the result. Suppose there are 9 votes cast 50% = 4.5 50% + 1 = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6) But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 4.5 + 1 as the least unit is 1. = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6) Now do you see there is no difference? Eagles don't flock, you have to find them one at a time.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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xyzee wrote:nakujua wrote:Jus Blazin wrote:Funny how PK and Martha got paltry votes in their respective constituencies, yet UK got over 100K votes in the two constituencies combined. I think had they gone for governor or senator seats in the respective counties - they would have won comfortably, the party notwithstanding. What exactly goes on in the mind of a politician? if PK had gone for Nairobi governor he would have easilly won (didn't he say he was born and brought up in baha). With his development credentials iam sure he would have been an inch closer to presidency. was it really that hard to figure out? Maybe pride got the better of him. I understand the Old Starehian society had promised to support him for governor of Nairobi. Now even if he tries for presidency in 2017 this failure in 2013 will be a blot on his otherwise clean image. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/9/2008 Posts: 2,824
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Quote:Suppose there are 9 votes cast
50% = 4.5
50% + 1 = 5.5
(Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6)
But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 4.5 + 1 as the least unit is 1. = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6)
Now do you see there is no difference? All this struggle for what now? 50% of 9 = 4.5 "more than half" is 4.5 + any positive number not greater than 4.5 so 4.6 is sufficient.. even 4.51 inatosha. then round to the nearest whole number and this gives us 5.... kweli au rongo?? When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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kingfisher wrote:Quote:Suppose there are 9 votes cast
50% = 4.5
50% + 1 = 5.5
(Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6)
But; "more than half" simply means more than 4.5, which is 4.5 + 1 as the least unit is 1. = 5.5 (Rounding this to the nearest whole number gives 6)
Now do you see there is no difference? All this struggle for what now? 50% of 9 = 4.5 "more than half" is 4.5 + any positive number not greater than 4.5 so 4.6 is sufficient.. even 4.51 inatosha. then round to the nearest whole number and this gives us 5.... kweli au rongo?? Why complicate something that is so simple? Total votes cast must be a whole number, so assume total votes cast is 10,999,999. Half of total votes cast in this case is 5,499,999.5. Since all votes must be whole numbers, the winner in this case must garner 5,500,000. This is 50.0000045%. As simple as a,b,c
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IEBC Official Results - Form 36 - Bomas of Kenya
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