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Google Spreadsheet with Projection from Official Results
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gladiator
#21 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 8:13:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
Okay updated the data from the big dump of Nairobi, Mandera et al. Took some time to review the results.

As expected Raila has taken a 6% lead in Nairobi and should maintain it, give or take a few, since Kibra & Langa'ta should offset Roysambu & Dagoretti South.

The main votes left are the Coastal counties (especially all of Mombasa), Meru, Embu, Kiambu, Parts of North Rift and Western.

So far coast turnout is running more than 10% less the national average and decreasing while Western for once since forever is close to the national average. If that can hold we have a good chance to going to a runoff.

Hence my gut check is to pay close attention to the Western turnout from now on.
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Mpenzi
#22 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 8:38:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
How come your totals are higher than those of IEBC being screened on TV?
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gladiator
#23 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 8:49:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
Mpenzi wrote:
How come your totals are higher than those of IEBC being screened on TV?


The one IEBC is screening has been behind the announced total by a few constituencies all day long. Check the media totals
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poundfoolish
#24 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 7:10:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Coast turnout is down.. the votes are shared...
western's turnout is also not impressive even with the near average turnout...

CORD complaining of the tallying...

Round 1 it is.....!!!! Hatutaki coury cases!!! Looser to concede peacefully.. its been a good race...
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Mpenzi
#25 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:05:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
Gladiator, how come your tally on constituencies is way ahead of everyone else's'?
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gladiator
#26 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:42:23 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
Okay folks. Just updated the spreadsheet and pretty close to making a definite call. Right now the results and turnout from the following counties will tip the scales.

Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, rest of Nakuru, Homabay and the rest of Western.

Uhuru's good performance in Nairobi to essentially match Odinga's performance in the county has pushed him on the verge of winning in round 1.

Will probably be able to call the race after the next batch of results.


PS. I guess the reason it seems I have more constituencies than others is because I am diligently tracking the individual results.
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Mpenzi
#27 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 8:54:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
gladiator wrote:
Okay folks. Just updated the spreadsheet and pretty close to making a definite call. Right now the results and turnout from the following counties will tip the scales.

Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, rest of Nakuru, Homabay and the rest of Western.

Uhuru's good performance in Nairobi to essentially match Odinga's performance in the county has pushed him on the verge of winning in round 1.

Will probably be able to call the race after the next batch of results.


PS. I guess the reason it seems I have more constituencies than others is because I am diligently tracking the individual results.


I don't understand. What on the TVs is the official IEBC's tally with 215 constituencies. Yours has 220 constituencies. ????
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gladiator
#28 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 9:04:21 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
Mpenzi wrote:
gladiator wrote:
Okay folks. Just updated the spreadsheet and pretty close to making a definite call. Right now the results and turnout from the following counties will tip the scales.

Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, rest of Nakuru, Homabay and the rest of Western.

Uhuru's good performance in Nairobi to essentially match Odinga's performance in the county has pushed him on the verge of winning in round 1.

Will probably be able to call the race after the next batch of results.


PS. I guess the reason it seems I have more constituencies than others is because I am diligently tracking the individual results.


I don't understand. What on the TVs is the official IEBC's tally with 215 constituencies. Yours has 220 constituencies. ????


They have been slow in updating it since yesterday. There were even reports from party agent complaining in the auditorium that it is not updating to reflect all the announced results
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freiks
#29 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 9:09:37 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/8/2010
Posts: 1,734
Mpenzi wrote:
gladiator wrote:
Okay folks. Just updated the spreadsheet and pretty close to making a definite call. Right now the results and turnout from the following counties will tip the scales.

Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, rest of Nakuru, Homabay and the rest of Western.

Uhuru's good performance in Nairobi to essentially match Odinga's performance in the county has pushed him on the verge of winning in round 1.

Will probably be able to call the race after the next batch of results.


PS. I guess the reason it seems I have more constituencies than others is because I am diligently tracking the individual results.


I don't understand. What on the TVs is the official IEBC's tally with 215 constituencies. Yours has 220 constituencies. ????


Kuwa mpole uone za IEBC zikifika 220 soon for you to compare
Life is an endless adventure
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Mpenzi
#30 Posted : Friday, March 08, 2013 9:10:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/17/2008
Posts: 1,234
gladiator wrote:
Mpenzi wrote:
gladiator wrote:
Okay folks. Just updated the spreadsheet and pretty close to making a definite call. Right now the results and turnout from the following counties will tip the scales.

Tharaka-Nithi, Samburu, rest of Nakuru, Homabay and the rest of Western.

Uhuru's good performance in Nairobi to essentially match Odinga's performance in the county has pushed him on the verge of winning in round 1.

Will probably be able to call the race after the next batch of results.


PS. I guess the reason it seems I have more constituencies than others is because I am diligently tracking the individual results.


I don't understand. What on the TVs is the official IEBC's tally with 215 constituencies. Yours has 220 constituencies. ????


They have been slow in updating it since yesterday. There were even reports from party agent complaining in the auditorium that it is not updating to reflect all the announced results


I heard that complaint late afternoon jana by an agent but it seems him he thought that updating would be happening automatically AS the announcements were being made.
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