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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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kizee1
#811 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 4:00:04 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
new wrote:
dunkang wrote:
Shilling at risk as reserve hits 8 months low


last time the reserves went below the 3.7 months import cover, and the market got wind of that news, the KeS took a massive hit. The CBK seems very vigilant this time round. i wonder how longer they can support the beloved KeS though



well short term rates up 400 pts since reserves went below 4 months of cover so attack the kes at ur peril...
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hisah
#812 Posted : Thursday, February 21, 2013 12:56:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Power bills set for steep rise from next month - http://www.businessdaily...18/-/1jriyy/-/index.html

Upside down economics this. Rise power bills, rise medical insurance, rise mobile money excise duty, proposed VAT on essential foods, KE GDP 2012 misses target, KRA to miss target too, pressure on tbills, pressure still on KES, economy still begging for stimulus as per GDP miss etc.

Economics KE upside down. I pray that elections are peaceful & global oil prices reverse. Those 2 combined if they merge, could throw the econ under the bus. NSE & bonds would be smashed in the process.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 21, 2013 1:18 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#813 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 8:15:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Power bills set for steep rise from next month - http://www.businessdaily...18/-/1jriyy/-/index.html

Upside down economics this. Rise power bills, rise medical insurance, rise mobile money excise duty, proposed VAT on essential foods, KE GDP 2012 misses target, KRA to miss target too, pressure on tbills, pressure still on KES, economy still begging for stimulus as per GDP miss etc.

Economics KE upside down. I pray that elections are peaceful & global oil prices reverse. Those 2 combined if they merge, could throw the econ under the bus. NSE & bonds would be smashed in the process.


Good opinion - www.nation.co.ke/oped/Op...1/-/n89smnz/-/index.html

I hope the biz lobby drives the expensive power issue home during the ERC stakeholders meeting. Just like the mobile money tax, this power hike is another bogus move. Thinking deficiency at large by policy makers. But KPLC having taken loans from world bank and friends, that's the nuisance you get for trading with the vultures.

Githae will be long gone when the new FinMin checks in. Inflation will be his/her greatest headache as well as that wide current account deficit. Also pending is that IMF proposed VAT bill that touches essential food stuff. More inflation. The only way out and @guru should remember this, IMF & friends will insist that the inflation model is revised to yet again hide inflation like in 2010. When that happens I'll short again KES like in 2011...

Btw last week the Bulgarian govt was forced to resign by civil protest against power hikes. Bulgaria is in an econ slump and that power hike just did it for the citizenry.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, February 25, 2013 8:25 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#814 Posted : Thursday, February 28, 2013 12:43:09 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Kenya inflation rises to 4.45% - http://www.theeastafrica...8/-/kvrm68z/-/index.html

Quote:
Kenya’s prices of goods rose at a faster pace in February for the second consecutive month on account of higher milk, beef and fuel costs, the statistics bureau said on Thursday.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) said inflation in February rose to 4.45 per cent compared to 3.67 per cent in January this year. In December last year, prices of basic goods and services rose at 3.2 per cent, the slowest pace after the inflation rate declined for 13 consecutive months.


Not good for an econ still in the slump and badly needing stimulus.

On the other hand KES is putting up a big fight with the USD while T-bills rate also keep creeping up and NSE is also up.

Big fight standoff... Mixed signals.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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FUNKY
#815 Posted : Thursday, February 28, 2013 4:43:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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digitek1
#816 Posted : Tuesday, March 05, 2013 12:19:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/3/2010
Posts: 1,797
Location: Kenya
Shilling strengthens after Elections
FUNKY wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenyan-shilling-hits-2013-peak-ahead-of-vote/-/539552/1707286/-/rn8k1v/-/index.html

I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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hisah
#817 Posted : Wednesday, March 06, 2013 12:35:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Today the USD is up 1% plus to put the rate at 86.50 as the wait and see atmosphere thickens...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#818 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 3:56:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I'm waiting for the KES action. It'll be lovely...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#819 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 9:53:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah

very boring market, in 2008 during PEV time the action was amazing, this time price action is boring or maybe ive been in this business for too long..
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hisah
#820 Posted : Thursday, March 07, 2013 10:18:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah

very boring market, in 2008 during PEV time the action was amazing, this time price action is boring or maybe ive been in this business for too long..

Yep. In 2008 it was action packed compared to know.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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