Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
|
Liv wrote:If we can have the approximate voter turnout by county from the results already released...we would be able to project the winner of the presidential race.
However Jubilee seems to have an average of about 90% of votes cast in Gema and Kalenjin communities.
Also they have done better than expected in NEP...Uhuru is expected to win there though total registered voters were circa 300k.
From the sample results received from Kisii, Uhuru has about 30% of the vote. Kitui is showing he may get between 10-15% of the vote there.
Nairobi will be 50:50 or Raila may win with slightly above 50%.
Jubilee was expecting better in Maasailand (Narok, Kajiado, Samburu, etc)....but he will manage about 40% of the vote going by the sample results so far released.
So Over and above the votes expected from Gema and Kalenjin communities which made about 43% of the total registered voters, Jubilee will have additional votes from NEP, Kisii, Narok, Samburu, and about 30% of Coast (based on sample results received so far).
If the turnout from Gema and Kalenjin communities is 4% or more than the average of the rest of the country, Jubilee will win more than 50%+1 in the first round. If it is more than 10% turnout difference...the win may be a landslide.
|