I've been toying around with the spreadsheets on voter registration and various scenarios..

I've settled for a simple one..

1.
MaDVD (and any other contestant) is eating more into CORDS votes than Jubilees. So factoring them in is just as good as reducing CORDs numbers...

So my analysis factored in 4th March as just a two horse race.. with voter turn-out as explained below.

2.
CORDed areas will generally have lower turnout as compared to Jubilee zones i.e.
70% lower Eastern.(95% votes for CORD)
60% Coast, on a good day. (70% votes for CORD)
60% Western. (95% votes for CORD)
85% + Luo Nyanza (95% votes for CORD) and
70% Kisii (95% votes for CORD)
50% North Eastern (55% CORDed)

CORD doesn't seem to be hard on the ground driving voters to come out and vote ala Obama 2012. So i dont expect magic from these areas.

Central and the Rift, especially areas in RV that matter, will have good turn outs, 80% and above.

3.
Areas in RV that CORD should have bagged are contested or leaning JUBILEE i.e the Naroks, Kajiados, Trans Nzoia etc this adds to Jubilees numbers, outside their safe comfort zone..


Now playing around with the excel sheet, this election is purely in Rift Valley voters hands.
With as simple as 65% voter turn out and 70% of them voting for Uhuruto.. then Jubilee already has the required 50% + 1 threshold.

I believe @4architect shared the spreadsheet so go back to it and do the maths.. only thing i've inluded are generous voter turn turn out for CORD

As someone said MN should start charging for use of Tyranny! If this is true then why are the polls not showing a wider margin btwn the two?

hapo ndio mtashangaa.......

dont just regurgitate MN thinking. think, think. what assuptions does he make and are they valid

Raw raw numbers of registered voters + expected voter turnout is highest in Jubiree zones.

+ what is the best counter argument that has been put forward to counter the MN argument? We remain a tribal voting nation.