Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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guru267 wrote:In a run off the following coalitions will emerge out of the ICC issue!
1. CORD = Karua, Mudavadi, Dida, ole kiyapi & PK (purely based on the Hague issue)
2. JUBILEE = Muite (he believes RAO and Baks should be at the Hague)
Based purely on numbers this should give CORD automatic victory in a run off since Muite brings absolutely nothing to the table! In case of a runoff.... there are several factors that will determine the final vote...not just ICC issue.
1) Mudavadi's followers: They can join Cord or Jubilee or Abstain (Not vote at all)...due t their like or dislike of the 2. IPSOS showed 21% of followers of all other presidential candidates don't like either of the 2 leading coalitions.
2) Composition of Parliament (NA & Senate).
3) Governors' influence in the counties. This includes the ward assembly influence.
4) Deals with various players (promises for appointments to the cabinet, ambassadors, etc for political support)
5) Fall out between coalition parties at the county level after first vote.
6) Court Petitions.
So there are many factors that will determine who will win in case there is a runoff. ICC issue is just one of them.
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