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Why Uhuru dreads run off
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kollabo
#21 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 10:19:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
2012 wrote:
McReggae wrote:
2012 wrote:
kollabo wrote:
@McR please leave Wetangula out of that equation. But as you've rightly put it, Jubilee are rank outsiders in the runoff.


The run-off is purely about numbers. Jubilee has numbers. I don't get how you see otherwise.


Think whatever but Jubilee will defintely look very isolated in a run-off!!!

.....hakuna kitu kama numbers beyond CORD, the jubilee hope is purely to get a very high turnout compared to CORD!!!


I'm not arguing, I'm just asking you because I don't get. Where will CORD get extra numbers and why will Jubilee lose numbers or not add more? Is it on the assumption that Mdvd numbers will go to CORD automatically?

On a balance of probabilities...Yes
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2012
#22 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 10:23:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
quicksand wrote:
Liv wrote:
There is a possibility that the hearing of the ICC cases will be postponed from 10th & 11th April to sometime in June or July 2013.... watch this space.

How ..? Please elaborate. Are you privy to intelligence the rest of us are not or its a guess?


Apparently the prosecutor has not furnished defense teams with all the information and evidence which was supposed to have been done in January. Plus prosecutor wishes to introduce new witnesses. This case will be pushed or they can file for a mis-trial.

BBI will solve it :)
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Ngalaka
#23 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 10:40:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 10/29/2008
Posts: 1,566
quicksand wrote:
Liv wrote:
There is a possibility that the hearing of the ICC cases will be postponed from 10th & 11th April to sometime in June or July 2013.... watch this space.

How ..? Please elaborate. Are you privy to intelligence the rest of us are not or its a guess?


It’s about clutching on straws, nail biting, hoping against hope, and risking ulcers.

Living on the edge by choice.
Isuni yilu yi maa me muyo - ni Mbisuu
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Liv
#24 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 10:48:06 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Ngalaka wrote:
quicksand wrote:
Liv wrote:
There is a possibility that the hearing of the ICC cases will be postponed from 10th & 11th April to sometime in June or July 2013.... watch this space.

How ..? Please elaborate. Are you privy to intelligence the rest of us are not or its a guess?


It’s about clutching on straws, nail biting, hoping against hope, and risking ulcers.

Living on the edge by choice.


It is called Faith. Faith is the substance of the things hoped for.

Miracles happen like that.... Don't underestimate the power of prayers.
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madollar
#25 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 10:49:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
Liv wrote:
McReggae wrote:
2012 wrote:
kollabo wrote:
@McR please leave Wetangula out of that equation. But as you've rightly put it, Jubilee are rank outsiders in the runoff.


The run-off is purely about numbers. Jubilee has numbers. I don't get how you see otherwise.


Think whatever but Jubilee will defintely look very isolated in a run-off!!!

.....hakuna kitu kama numbers beyond CORD, the jubilee hope is purely to get a very high turnout compared to CORD!!!


At the beginning of campaign period one of the CORD assumption was that Kalenjin cannot vote for Uhuru.... This has been proved wrong.

Later another CORD assumption was Meru Embu vote will be divided and CORD will have a substantial share.... This has been proved wrong.

Another CORD assumption is that CORD will win everywhere outside Mt Kenya and Kalenjin Land.... This will be proved wrong too.

Jubilee will have senators and governors from Coast, from Maasai Land and North Eastern province.... and substantial presidential votes too.


Great campaign strategy by jubilee they have rallies this week in coast and north eastern target at least 500,000 votes ......
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guru267
#26 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:05:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
In a run off the following coalitions will emerge out of the ICC issue!

1. CORD = Karua, Mudavadi, Dida, ole kiyapi & PK (purely based on the Hague issue)

2. JUBILEE = Muite (he believes RAO and Baks should be at the Hague)

Based purely on numbers this should give CORD automatic victory in a run off since Muite brings absolutely nothing to the table!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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McReggae
#27 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:12:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
Muite will be beaten even by Dida!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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poundfoolish
#28 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:15:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
In a run off the following coalitions will emerge out of the ICC issue!

1. CORD = Karua, Mudavadi, Dida, ole kiyapi & PK (purely based on the Hague issue)

2. JUBILEE = Muite (he believes RAO and Baks should be at the Hague)

Based purely on numbers this should give CORD automatic victory in a run off since Muite brings absolutely nothing to the table!


To echo Tom Wolf.. RAO's supporters agree with MDVD's supporters on every issue.. they are twins if not the same... so take 90% of MaDVD's and add to RAO.. For the rest take 40% and add to RAO the rest are Jubilees..

A 2nd round is not a great scenario for UhuRuto.. Uongo mbaya.... hence the need for a first round win... which is very possible...
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ChessMaster
#29 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:21:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
McReggae wrote:
Muite will be beaten even by Dida!!!


Please don't get me wrong wazuans.I want to see how many votes Mwalimu Dida will get considering he is an option for the islamic vote.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, February 25, 2013 11:22 AM | Reason: Not specified
2012
#30 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 11:21:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
Here's why I think a run-off will not favour Raila/CORD. I could be wrong but I doubt.

1. For the last 5yrs we all expected Raila to be the undisputed winner of the next elections whether we liked it or not. Somehowly and I don't know how, He lost that formidable lead.

2. Raila/CORD has failed to convince the youth and the analogue campaign by Jubilee was well thought out and executed.

3. Raila did nothing for Western and especially Mdvd's area when he was PM. Just ask around. Infact Kibs seemed more concerned about Webuye and sugar companies then RAO.

4. The swing vote will be with the youth.

5. There will be a month of campaigning in the Run-off and only one coalition seems to be gaining every time week while the other is dropping numbers each week.

6. The Muslim vote.

BBI will solve it :)
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, February 25, 2013 12:01 PM | Reason: Not specified
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