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Grand Final IPSOS poll
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kimiri
#91 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:21:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/12/2008
Posts: 215
McReggae wrote:
Jubilee has really banked on this voter turnout thing, it will burn.....guys just registered the other, the opponents are also aware of this strategy......expect a high turnout in most places!!!!


I do not think so. Recall that during the constitutional referendum, registration had just been completed a few weeks to the voting date yet regions that are traditionally known to have poor turnout maintained this trend. Just as it has been in the past, I expect low turnout of voters in Coast and Ukambani.
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McReggae
#92 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:22:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
pilgrimage wrote:
RAO-45%
UK-43%
Who are the others?


Hii yako ni ya waphi sasa na wewe???
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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KulaRaha
#93 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:23:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
alma wrote:
Shotgun wrote:
alma wrote:
I still think this poll is flawed. I know for a fact that Dida has attracted more people to his camp.

Can't wait for the Daily Trash Post lunatics to come hither.



Interestingly, he is ahead of Kiyapi at 0.2% to Kiyapi's 0.1%. Dude just showed up on our screens 3 weeks ago and Kiyapi started 'kompaining' back in early 2012.

I thought Kajiado and Samburu were leaning Jubilee and didnt expect them to be Battleground. Maybe the Jubilant's locked Samburu after yesterdays pic from Liv. Laughing out loudly

Messi's Vihiga is also Contested...hmmmm


Messi's candidature was a bigger hail Mary than Dida's. His work will be to tell his supporters who to vote for. Nothing else. And even then who said they will follow him.


Tell me, according to the constitution, did MPigs mutilate the clause that says you have to have been out of active politics for X number of years to be appointed some GOK bigjob?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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McReggae
#94 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:24:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
kimiri wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Jubilee has really banked on this voter turnout thing, it will burn.....guys just registered the other, the opponents are also aware of this strategy......expect a high turnout in most places!!!!


I do not think so. Recall that during the constitutional referendum, registration had just been completed a few weeks to the voting date yet regions that are traditionally known to have poor turnout maintained this trend. Just as it has been in the past, I expect low turnout of voters in Coast and Ukambani.


That was continous registration, yaani wale hawana kura wachukue.....not a new one like the one done in December!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Lolest!
#95 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:27:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
KulaRaha wrote:
My guy PK is sinking, or should I admit sunk.

I dont want to vote for a horse...I just dont.

Dont listen to those telling u to vote for mafarasi. Ati losing vote? Kitu gani hii? Would that mean those who voted Kibaki in 92 and 97 lost their votes?
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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Impunity
#96 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:36:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,335
Location: Masada
McReggae wrote:
Uhuru 44.8% Raila 44.4% Madvd 5.2% PK 1.6%


Too close to call.

NADVD is now the village beauty,watu wamkatie basi.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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poundfoolish
#97 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:39:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Impunity wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Uhuru 44.8% Raila 44.4% Madvd 5.2% PK 1.6%


Too close to call.

NADVD is now the village beauty,watu wamkatie basi.


this thing ends in round one based on voter turn out...
and its all on CORD supporters turn out..They dont turn up.. they lose round one... They match Jubilees turnouts they win in round one.....
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, February 22, 2013 3:40 PM | Reason: Not specified
Liv
#98 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:40:31 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
This poll is quite comprehensive.

- Sample size: 5971

- Coverage: 47 counties

- Field based - household to household as per sample

- Paired Interviews - not 1 person interviewing people

- Double checking by independent supervision.

MARGIN OF ERROR:+/-1.27% at 95% confidence level

Whereas it could be close to the reality on the ground, the margin of error could be higher if the age and gender of the sample is significantly different from the population of the Registered voters. The sample assumes 54% Male and 46% female registered voters and a certain age profile.... which may or may not be the reality of the registered voters.

Also there is no mention of confirmation on whether those who were interviewed were really registered voters.

The sample also assumes 100% turnout every ward, county and region.

However, except for the above factors, this poll may be reliable and useful for campaign teams as they strategize for the final week of campaign period.
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McReggae
#99 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:41:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
Impunity wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Uhuru 44.8% Raila 44.4% Madvd 5.2% PK 1.6%


Too close to call.

NADVD is now the village beauty,watu wamkatie basi.


If only the run-off meant you just transfer your numbers to whoever you support then Madvd would be that important!!!!

.......remember in the runoff, ongeri, balala, ngilu et al will most probably have lost, kwao itakuwa ni kujificha sasa!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Bigchick
#100 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 3:42:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 4,068
Location: At Large.
From today going to the d-day on a daily basis it shall be 1% point loss for Cord and 1% point gain for Jubilee.

So on 5th the announcement shall be Runners Up: Cord 34 % and the Winner : Jubilee 53%

Ooooooooooiiiiiiii.I look foward to the day.
Love is beautiful and so are those who share it.With Love, Marriage is an amazing event in ones life time, the foundation of joy, happiness and success.
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