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Kengen has bolted!
Aguytrying
#141 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:37:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
murchr wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/KenGen-lines-up-asset-backed-bond-sale/-/539552/1700880/-/oluh4nz/-/index.html


Im i the only one not over the moon with this?

Yes the company will avoid a rights issue. However, the cash generated from geothermal will go into paying this bond over 20 years. Kengen as of now has geothermal production contributing to its bottom line. This earning will now go into paying the bond, so less earning on the bottom line.
So as a rights issue dilutes by increasing the number of shares, this will dilute by decreasing the earnings attributable to shareholders.

and the bond is so huge( if there are such clauses), if unforseen events occurred it can swallow a company. 437 billion.

What we need to know is, how much does geothermal contribute right now to the bottom line.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#142 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:46:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Tough balancing act here, Debt Vs Equity (rights issue) Vs a mixture of the two
Cde Monomotapa
#143 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 9:58:43 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
IMO, this is to be thought separately. 1. The Asset Backed Bond (ABB) is a (specific) charge/mortgage on the steam & plants to be built from the ABB funds, and revenues from them will (specifically) repay the ABB holders. 2. The existing plants & revenues will continue servicing in general all the debt KGN already has (PIBO, multi-lateral e.t.c), and won't in anyway service the ABB commitment.
Cde Monomotapa
#144 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:17:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
1. The Asset Backed Bond (ABB) is a (specific) charge/mortgage on the steam & plants to be built from the ABB funds, and revenues from them will (specifically) repay the ABB holders.

In otherwords, KGN has a plot and approaches you for debt finance to build real-estate. The security being the plot (steam), the houses (plants) & that you'll be repaid from the rent (revenues) over time [all factors held constant]. IMHO
mwekez@ji
#145 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:24:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The financial requirements here are mindboggling. The ABB will raise KES 30bn but KenGen estimates that it needs USD 5bn (KES 437bn) in the next five years to reach a goal of doubling total generating capacity to 3,000 MW by 2018.
Aguytrying
#146 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:31:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
1. The Asset Backed Bond (ABB) is a (specific) charge/mortgage on the steam & plants to be built from the ABB funds, and revenues from them will (specifically) repay the ABB holders.

In otherwords, KGN has a plot and approaches you for debt finance to build real-estate. The security being the plot (steam), the houses (plants) & that you'll be repaid from the rent (revenues) over time [all factors held constant]. IMHO


You are right. The current revenues from steam wont go into the ABB.

However the current steam drilled will be used as collateral.

“We plan to use the steam already drilled as collateral to raise additional affordable capital from the market. We shall use this capital to build power plants and use the revenue from the sale of power to pay those who have invested in us,” said Mr Njoroge during a tour of the Olkaria Geothermal Power plant in Naivasha.

would i then be correct in saying that the growth in profits attributable to shareholders will now remain in hydro, thermal and wind?

Since the increase in geothermal production will go into bond payment hence not attributable to shareholders.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mkonomtupu
#147 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:33:23 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
As we continue to debate the complex transactions, the mbus is coming back 10.55/= prints
Cde Monomotapa
#148 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:36:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mkonomtupu wrote:
As we continue to debate the complex transactions, the mbus is coming back 10.55/= prints

Indeed. Mafwans wengine wamegoma! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Cde Monomotapa
#149 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:42:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
1. The Asset Backed Bond (ABB) is a (specific) charge/mortgage on the steam & plants to be built from the ABB funds, and revenues from them will (specifically) repay the ABB holders.

In otherwords, KGN has a plot and approaches you for debt finance to build real-estate. The security being the plot (steam), the houses (plants) & that you'll be repaid from the rent (revenues) over time [all factors held constant]. IMHO


You are right. The current revenues from steam wont go into the ABB.

However the current steam drilled will be used as collateral.

“We plan to use the steam already drilled as collateral to raise additional affordable capital from the market. We shall use this capital to build power plants and use the revenue from the sale of power to pay those who have invested in us,” said Mr Njoroge during a tour of the Olkaria Geothermal Power plant in Naivasha.

would i then be correct in saying that the growth in profits attributable to shareholders will now remain in hydro, thermal and wind?

Since the increase in geothermal production will go into bond payment hence not attributable to shareholders.

Hehe..something like that but the Prospectus will be the truth & management needs to come out with it's own statement pronto. I personally not taking-in BD's version [away from the ABB part] wholesale - it's spooking. (a Buy?)
the deal
#150 Posted : Friday, February 22, 2013 10:44:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hey the cash flows from the geothermal plant will be used to pay interest on the bond...the rest goes to KenGen...an ABB results in creation of an SPV which will not be part of the KenGen balance sheet...so no risk to KenGen at all...in case of a default....bond investors will go for the geothermal fields not KenGen....putting in a bid now before interim earnings next week.
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