The problem with rao worshipers is that they always discuss the future wish so much conviction yet they have no facts. look at the threads on uhuruto court cases etc. On this I highly doubt the letter.
I would say it would be stupid for him not to attend. He will be seen as a coward and might raise issues on what he is hiding.
On the other hand, it would be suicidal for rao to be there in kamwana's absence. Others will gang against him as they have nothing to loose. In kenyan politics, your home ground counts a great deal. From the first debate, PK, Karua and Muite never got one on one against uk. Expect rao to leave the debate in tears if UK misses.
Keep it simple