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More numbers of tyranny: Who let the CAT out of the BAG
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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poundfoolish wrote:githundi wrote:jyo wrote:TAZ wrote:Nakuru & Naivasha are both Jubilee zones, there's no way you can convince me that out of the 600K registered voters in Naks ati CORD will get anywhere near 200K. Kwa rhonda, Kaptembwa, kipanga,parts of langalanga,Manyani, ponda mali flower farms in naivasha and by the way Solai have many many Kisii's..... this is more than 200k votes reason why Brawan gave Kinyanjui a run for his money last election kaptebwa ward with about 70, 000 is kalenjin dominated. Other areas you have named are fairly multiethnic. By the way majority of kisiis in nakuru vote with kyuks as they share the same issues, insecurity and are predominantly farmers. Most other communities are nakuru town and flower farms of Naivasha. And by the way Nakuru has 11 constituencies. Just do your maths. Would you also agree with me that the Kaleo's living in the frontlines would be more unwilling to follow WSR to UMK.. by voting against (for Presidential) or abstaining...? I beg to disagree, history has shown Kaleos vote as a block. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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Behemoth wrote:githundi wrote: Nakuru is more cosmopolitan and if you scan the register of Nakuru County, Kisiis, Luhyas ,Akamba, Luos alone hit at 258,624 voters.
@ Pound foolish , i do not know where you got those numbers but i dispute.
Tell me where are these voters who have not managed even to elect a single mp of their own? Members of Parliament Elections MP [1] Party 1963 Achieng Oneko KANU 1966 Mark Waruiru Mwithaga KANU 1969 Mark Waruiru Mwithaga KANU 1974 Mark Waruiru Mwithaga KANU 1976 Willy Komen KANU 1979 Mark Waruiru Mwithaga KANU 1983 Amos Kabiru Kimemia KANU 1988 Amos Kabiru Kimemia KANU 1992 J. C. Lwali-Oyondi Ford-Asili 1997 David Manyara Njuki DP 2002 Mirugi Kariuki NARC 2006 William Kariuki Mirugi NARC-K 2007 Lee Maiyani Kinyanjui PNU Nakuru was Ford Asili then. So include the Kyuk votes. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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March 4th we come, 0.5 m votes for Jubilee from Nakuru. Let us agree to disagree. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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poundfoolish wrote:githundi wrote:jyo wrote:TAZ wrote:Nakuru & Naivasha are both Jubilee zones, there's no way you can convince me that out of the 600K registered voters in Naks ati CORD will get anywhere near 200K. Kwa rhonda, Kaptembwa, kipanga,parts of langalanga,Manyani, ponda mali flower farms in naivasha and by the way Solai have many many Kisii's..... this is more than 200k votes reason why Brawan gave Kinyanjui a run for his money last election kaptebwa ward with about 70, 000 is kalenjin dominated. Other areas you have named are fairly multiethnic. By the way majority of kisiis in nakuru vote with kyuks as they share the same issues, insecurity and are predominantly farmers. Most other communities are nakuru town and flower farms of Naivasha. And by the way Nakuru has 11 constituencies. Just do your maths. I just pointed out that the burger has the number of CORD affiliated voters down to the tenth figure... If its a lie.. then the dude knows his trade.. If he did sort out the spreadsheet by names starting with O's and ended up at 258K.. then give it to him.. Similar to Nairobi.. OBaks had 300K votes, while RAO got 220K in '07... We currently have a register of 1.7 M voters in Nairobi. To be safe i'd double Kibaki's 07 votes then throw in an extra 200 K votes (for voters who went machinani) then ask myself who the remaining 900K came from? On Nairobi, i agree Oar might have a slender lead in the final count. 13 days to go. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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githundi wrote:March 4th we come, 0.5 m votes for Jubilee from Nakuru.
Let us agree to disagree. So you agree there is around 100K votes for Cord just in Nakuru? now they need the other 900K... they just need to chip out 1M from RV.. and galvanize the other provinces..Game Shot!!! the tyranny of numbers gave the Entire RV to Jubilee... and started with. 'We see things as we are and not as they are.. ' btw, I'm still trying to fathom that line..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/14/2007 Posts: 4,152
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@ Poundfoolish......The registered voters in Naks are about 600k, i don't think there will be 100% voter turn-out. I think that is why @githundi has gone with 500K.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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FRM2011 wrote:mawinder wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:i will add another 20k that cord will win. mpesa?
the king got the kidneys and is now matching on. Wapi carygoh? Wapi wanajubilee? The rules are simple. I will mpesa lady admin 20k one week to the polls i.e. 25th feb 2012. Any jubilant willing to bet does the same. After IEBC makes the final announcement lady admin sends me the 40k. Nothing personal. Can i book a suite at the enashaipai with. . . . . . @angelica si u try to convince some jubilants to join the bet. There is 40k for a cordashian win and not a single cent for the jubilants.
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/5/2009 Posts: 597
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Angelica _ann wrote:some of this guys have the actual voter register and sample county by county. 4th march come baby come. the king's kidneys have been replaced, he is now strong and ready to go! wangi there is no way out! ochawa too much Ha ha ha nyako a like the mix and flow, but wangni to lich. I rest my case and applaud the originators of tyranny of numbers as people are now critical and unbiased to analysis. The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/19/2010 Posts: 1,308 Location: nairobi metropolitan
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TAZ wrote:@ Poundfoolish......The registered voters in Naks are about 695k, i don't think there will be 100% voter turn-out. I think that is why @githundi has gone with 500K. Thanks @Taz, i mean actual votes considering turn out and some cord votes, not registered voters. Democracy does not belong to the dead
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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I support neither but common sense and migration patterns tell me Nairobi will be a 50:50 affair with negligible margins. Nairobi will just add onto numbers rather than provide a leap in the same way Central or Nyanza would. And I doubt we are going to have a run off. Voting is = to numbers.
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