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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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mwekez@ji
#2301 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 12:02:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwekez@ji wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Seems like NBK is about to pop.HFCK is looking good too.

NBK is rallying on volume fumes. Caution! Also too many skeletons in it.

Hehe..the most dis-jointed of trading patterns with those large spreads. Uptill results come out for firm direction, it remains a stock for the brave on the Buy side. NBK has to be thought out H1, 2013+ (interest rate cycle). No 'fast-money challenge' here smile


i see it too. its a buy. but for the brave. its actually gaining interest from investors of late


NBK rated a sell by CFC.

NBK's FY '11/12 'woes' are publicly known, i.e marking Bonds to mkt in a high interest regime, absorbing the same in Cost of Funds w/o passing to customers (how cute) & that's principally what I bought as w.e.f Jan '13 those conditions have greatly improved. Infact, I'll be looking for a cue of an uptick in biz at NBK specifically & the sector in general in part Q3 & Q4 '12 (as per CBK reports). So I'm leveraging on what's already happened & current (improved) conditions to win forward. Cde vs CFC *ring-ding* 'twende kazi'


@cde, the future of NBK is on the new management strategy. if they put more money to lending hence raising the Loan/Deposit ratio that is currently very low it will improve their loan interest income which is the main driver of revenue in other banks. The management should also shed that high bond holding and get down to core banking business(lending). *key to future - new management strategy*


... eN yea, *ring-ding* Cde Vs CFC
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Cde Monomotapa
#2302 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 1:00:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Seems like NBK is about to pop.HFCK is looking good too.

NBK is rallying on volume fumes. Caution! Also too many skeletons in it.

Hehe..the most dis-jointed of trading patterns with those large spreads. Uptill results come out for firm direction, it remains a stock for the brave on the Buy side. NBK has to be thought out H1, 2013+ (interest rate cycle). No 'fast-money challenge' here smile


i see it too. its a buy. but for the brave. its actually gaining interest from investors of late


NBK rated a sell by CFC.

NBK's FY '11/12 'woes' are publicly known, i.e marking Bonds to mkt in a high interest regime, absorbing the same in Cost of Funds w/o passing to customers (how cute) & that's principally what I bought as w.e.f Jan '13 those conditions have greatly improved. Infact, I'll be looking for a cue of an uptick in biz at NBK specifically & the sector in general in part Q3 & Q4 '12 (as per CBK reports). So I'm leveraging on what's already happened & current (improved) conditions to win forward. Cde vs CFC *ring-ding* 'twende kazi'


@cde, the future of NBK is on the new management strategy. if they put more money to lending hence raising the Loan/Deposit ratio that is currently very low it will improve their loan interest income which is the main driver of revenue in other banks. The management should also shed that high bond holding and get down to core banking business(lending). *key to future - new management strategy*


... eN yea, *ring-ding* Cde Vs CFC

Hey you bring out some interesting perspectives there Comrade Brother @Mwekez@ji smile [Hadn't thought that far out]. I guess it's to give the new management a free-hand to work out something special..if he/NBK can pull off a successful make-over like at KCB & HF then 'iko kitu' ;-)
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murchr
#2303 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 7:59:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Looking at the numbers at the exchange.....am seeing the bull is being slaughtered
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Cde Monomotapa
#2304 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 9:08:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Seems like NBK is about to pop.HFCK is looking good too.

NBK is rallying on volume fumes. Caution! Also too many skeletons in it.

Hehe..the most dis-jointed of trading patterns with those large spreads. Uptill results come out for firm direction, it remains a stock for the brave on the Buy side. NBK has to be thought out H1, 2013+ (interest rate cycle). No 'fast-money challenge' here smile


i see it too. its a buy. but for the brave. its actually gaining interest from investors of late


NBK rated a sell by CFC.

NBK's FY '11/12 'woes' are publicly known, i.e marking Bonds to mkt in a high interest regime, absorbing the same in Cost of Funds w/o passing to customers (how cute) & that's principally what I bought as w.e.f Jan '13 those conditions have greatly improved. Infact, I'll be looking for a cue of an uptick in biz at NBK specifically & the sector in general in part Q3 & Q4 '12 (as per CBK reports). So I'm leveraging on what's already happened & current (improved) conditions to win forward. Cde vs CFC *ring-ding* 'twende kazi'


@cde, the future of NBK is on the new management strategy. if they put more money to lending hence raising the Loan/Deposit ratio that is currently very low it will improve their loan interest income which is the main driver of revenue in other banks. The management should also shed that high bond holding and get down to core banking business(lending). *key to future - new management strategy*


... eN yea, *ring-ding* Cde Vs CFC

Hey you bring out some interesting perspectives there Comrade Brother @Mwekez@ji smile [Hadn't thought that far out]. I guess it's to give the new management a free-hand to work out something special..if he/NBK can pull off a successful make-over like at KCB & HF then 'iko kitu' ;-)

Add Co-op & Consolidated banks too.
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Aguytrying
#2305 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:45:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@cde. i see you winning in the first round by TKO
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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ChessMaster
#2306 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:47:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
murchr wrote:
Looking at the numbers at the exchange.....am seeing the bull is being slaughtered


I think so too
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Aguytrying
#2307 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:50:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
obiero wrote:
28th feb 2013 marks my last day this quarter on the NSE. i shall liquidate everything as i lack the guts to ride the bull through the electioneerin period. all the best to the braver members, but incase u fall off the bull, which is a very high possibility.. do not say u were not warned :)


Even HFCK? could it really go back to 13-15?

Why would index go south now after rallying so much?

Stranger things have happened and to be honest they have all been opposite of my(and most peoples) expectations. So i cant rule out ANYTHING
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Cde Monomotapa
#2308 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 10:58:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. i see you winning in the first round by TKO

Sure. I'm counting on the interest rate cycle (indeed a TKO) creating the margin of safety & reflecting on the stock price. Thereafter, mwekez@ji's insights can be incorp'd through the new management putting forward creativity & innovation along the way. Let's see.
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ChessMaster
#2309 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 11:13:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. i see you winning in the first round by TKO

Sure. I'm counting on the interest rate cycle (indeed a TKO) creating the margin of safety & reflecting on the stock price. Thereafter, mwekez@ji's insights can be incorp'd through the new management putting forward creativity & innovation along the way. Let's see.


To be honest,at the price Cde got in with HFCK,even I wouldn't leave the market.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Aguytrying
#2310 Posted : Tuesday, February 19, 2013 11:16:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@cde. i see you winning in the first round by TKO

Sure. I'm counting on the interest rate cycle (indeed a TKO) creating the margin of safety & reflecting on the stock price. Thereafter, mwekez@ji's insights can be incorp'd through the new management putting forward creativity & innovation along the way. Let's see.


Its very interesting how investors minds work. Let me tell you its not that they dont see the opportunities or have no knowledge.
The problem is that they do not BELIEVE.

Two quick examples of a similar kind as NBK.
KCB at 15.00, and HFCK at 14.00.
We see the opportunities and have knowledge, but few believe enough to take the leap of faith.

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, February 19, 2013 11:38 AM | Reason: Not specified
569 Pages«<229230231232233>»
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