Kenya can't survive without the EU.1. 24.1% of Kenyan exports go to the EU i.e Horticulture, Maize, Tobacco, Tea and Coffee. Other big export markets include the US which are likely to follow what ever other western governments decide.
2. 15% of Kenya's budget is financed by western government in the form of AID.
So what will happen if sanctions come along
1. Kenya's exports will tumble resulting in massive lay offs and widening of the current account deficit...you will have a scenario where forex reserves are not able to cater even for oil imports...long ques at petrol stations will be an order.
2. The KES will tumble as business rush to buy any dollars on the market to cover themselves...considering limited support in term of dollar inflows from exports i.e coffee...the CBK will not be able to defend the KES.
3.
Stagflation will follow. Hyperinflation+massive unemployment+sliding economy=Stagflation. Kenyan assets will be devalued...you saw what happened in 2011 when inflation went to 20%...both the equities and the bond markets tanked...by then SBB's will not be able to save local banks...the contagion means they disappear into oblivion.
4. Government revenues will take a hit...resulting in a
"twin deficit"...you expect GoK to print money at that stage just to pay workers salary...but KES100,0000 will get you nothing at that stage...so a KES1,000,000,000 note will be introduced, by then there will be
massive street protests...as people realize they need something to eat.
5. Last straw...Dollarisation! With Dollarisation comes its challenges i.e GoK wont be able to raise money through T-Bills etc...so GoK remains as broke as ever.
GUESS WHAT THE WORLD BANK WILL NEVER BE THERE TO SAVE KENYA...AFTER ALL THIS BLOODY BRETTON WOODS ORGANISATIONS ARE WESTERN MACHINES OF SLAVERY...LOOK AT WHAT THEY HAVE DONE TO MALAWI.The NSE will be at 0-2000...that's when @thedeal will comeback and say...
pride and ignorance does not pay..half of Wazuans will never want to talk about the NSE or hear the word sanctions.
So vote wisely!