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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:NSE wrote:Some 16M shares valued at Kes.452M were traded in 1,500 deals, down from 39M shares that were valued at Kes.613M posted yesterday.
The NSE 20 Share Index crossed the 4,500 point-mark to close at 4522.53, up 71.75 points.
All Share Index (NASI) was up 0.81 points to stand at 105.39.
FTSE NSE Kenya 15 Index was up 0.75 points to settle at 138.39.
FTSE NSE Kenya 25 Index was up 0.75 points to settle at 141.82. 4500 handle reclaimed. The index is now 31pts away from testing the 2013 high before the break higher targeting 4600 handle towards 4678. Btw that statement in bold is a wrong update by NSE staff. Someone is sleeping on the job. The index today is up by 38.91pts from 4,483.62 as per yesterday's close. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Now that there's a plan to introduce the futures market by NSE, can they also draft rules for an NSE or NASI futures index. This way those that don't feel like owning KE stocks can just trade the NSE or NASI indices via options. Yep, time to introduce derivatives on the indices. I think KE is mature for such products. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:KCB, Mpesa bank, EABL, Uchumi and Equity are the top 5 turnover movers today. So far the big 3 (KCB, Mpesa bank and EABL) have pulled back and are now gearing for the next bull move.
I've also pointed out today a number of counters that are pending breakout moves. The complete list has 10 counters with expected price movement in brackets. Of interest is MSC, uchumi and CFCI since they have been seeing a lot of volume of late. Uchumi is sitting a the top of its range. If it fails to break above a double top will form and the reversal will be very nasty as profit taking ensues. CFCI has been getting a lot of volume, but the price has just stagnanted (accumulation). Same case with MSC, but its tech signals are mixed on the expected direction.
Keep an eye on these counters for the expected large moves.
KK (bear), KQ (,bear), MSC (neutral) Uchumi (bull), Carbacid (bull), TOTL (bear), CFCI (bull), C.Berger (bull), Kapchorua (neutral), WTK (neutral) As the indices ready for the breakout, watch these stocks above for breakouts too. Those that are poised bullish technically should rally hard. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. Once again you are the lone voice but now on the opposite bullish end. Investors are dumbfounded , notice ppl dont post much on wazua, ppl cant believe whats going on. Nse is rallying harder as we approach elections. Only two of my shares are not rallying cfci and wtk and i got at current prices. It would be unwise to bet against u. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Once again you are the lone voice but now on the opposite bullish end. Investors are dumbfounded , notice ppl dont post much on wazua, ppl cant believe whats going on.
Nse is rallying harder as we approach elections. Only two of my shares are not rallying cfci and wtk and i got at current prices.
It would be unwise to bet against u. Turned bullish after the 5yr bear trendline got broken to the upside in Q4 2012.
It takes time for one to learn how to disconnect from market emotions aka trading like a robot, which just follows the programmed rules. This is how HFT (high frequency trade) models work. Also since I got to understand volume spread (VSA), I realized herd mentality is what smart money trades against. When there's too much fear in the market & the crowd mostly sides with one direction, the market suddenly moves in the unexpected direction! Same applies to extreme bullish sentiments by the crowd.
Markets are ALWAYS manipulated.
http://www.marketmanipulation.com
This BD article states NSE has lost steam and at the end of the article some analysts say an election selloff is inevitable. I like this, it's a negative article against the unexpected current bullish move 
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/fks1nt/-/index.html
Back in 2010 when I signed up on wazua in Aug, the NSE bull extreme was at the ceiling while volume hinted a selloff was looming! In Feb 2011 when I stated banks would be smashed despite their profit spree of 2010, I almost got linched The bullish meter was extreme both crowd & analysts. KCB @90 was such a thread. The macro fundies were also bad esp the BoP, global inflation was spiking, but CBK still cut the CBR in what I called a senseless move. This made me realize NSE would selloff badly. Then by April 2011 NSE lost the 4000 handle and meant bulls were getting mauled. BoP was still worsening, inflation as well and I realized the best equities hedge was to short the KES since it was overvalued on worsening macro-econ and I placed targets @90 vs $ and also shorted KES vs the Swiss. Someone said that $ @90 was blasphemy for it meant KES sliding by double digit %. I was horrified when it slid beyond 100. It meant BoP would widening like a dam & risk hyperinflation effects! Up to date I still believe KE banks don't have proper risk models that can forecast outsize risk events based on what happened to the bond market (SBB) as well as how CBK desperately threw the sink at the brewing storm. (I would like CBK to keenly monitor the banking supermarket model & ensure controls are in place to avoid Lehman bros like outcome). Wanjikus purchasing power was heavily eroded and it'll take some yrs to fix that via macro econ that can sustain GDP growth of 7% plus for 5yrs.
Being a lone voice is tough biz. You get hammered by the crowd. And worse if your expectation delays. But later the crowd gets and it's too late 
Finally as long as property threads (plots for sale) are under the stocks section, it's still a buyers @NSE. The return of stocks threads with ridiculous price targets or valuations as well as the shopkeeper telling you how stock A is good, press the NSE EJECT BUTTON..
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Once again you are the lone voice but now on the opposite bullish end. Investors are dumbfounded , notice ppl dont post much on wazua, ppl cant believe whats going on.
Nse is rallying harder as we approach elections. Only two of my shares are not rallying cfci and wtk and i got at current prices.
It would be unwise to bet against u. True..telling the way the market will go is indeed tougher than rocket science.I took a decision to get out of cash in December,spreading my buys on my two target counters over four months(25% per month).I am looking at the board today and regret my buying price limits are being broken yet i am still 30% in cash!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627
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And look at the turnover today..already 1.5 billion shillings.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interesting price action on Mpesa bank... Seems like a retest of 5.80 is on the cards. ARM bulls are back and pressing on the plate to vault 60/- resistance. Are you seeing the oversize turnover. Mpesa bank last week traded 615M. KCB is trading 500M and ARM trading 829M today. Giant volumes since Nov 2012... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 will like close @4600 today! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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