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Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
McReggae
#81 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 9:37:54 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
McReggae wrote:
Tribal arithmerics the Mutahi Ngunyi way stolen from @jyo in another thread: Kikuyus 2,190,477
Meru/embu 866,329
kikuyu in Riftvalley 1,166,146
Kalenjin 1,523,325

5,746,277


Kamba 1,069,529
North eastern 347,457
borana 157,025
Coast 1,164,083
Luo 1,320,647
Kisii 634,109
Luhya 1,566,339
Maasai Samburu Turkana 571,040
6,830,229

Deficit over 1 million hata tukichukua North eastern Borana maasai samburu na turkana bado tutachindwa


Nobody responding to these jyo's numbers???
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
madollar
#82 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 9:44:23 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
mutahi is overated but he is right in one thing cord should have mobilised for higher registration numbers in their strongholds that gap is too wide.................
Impunity
#83 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 9:56:34 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,335
Location: Masada
McReggae wrote:
When he reapeated yesterday that Raila can becone number 3, he lost all credibility in analysis!!!!

@johstone sakaja was so pissed off discussing tribal arithmatic.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

grolut
#84 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 9:58:56 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2010
Posts: 563
Location: Embakasi
nakujua wrote:
grolut wrote:
He did not factor in so called "dissenting votes" in the GEMA and Kalenjin communities, no matter how small.

they will be canceled out by the dissenting votes in luo nyanza nad kamba eastern


d'oh! True, didn't think of that.
In a place where thought is abandoned, freedom can become a curse.
TAZ
#85 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 10:01:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/14/2007
Posts: 4,152
@ Mc Reggae......As Mutahi said, its almost impossible for CORD to get all the swing votes and Voter turn-out in areas such as Lower Eastern and Coast has always been low. Western have never voted as a block and Maasai's and Turkana ni 50/50 between CORD and Jubilee.....just saying! As so many people have said high Voter turn out will be crucial if CORD is to win the elections
Obi 1 Kanobi
#86 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 10:04:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
TAZ wrote:
@ Mc Reggae......As Mutahi said, its almost impossible for CORD to get all the swing votes and Voter turn-out in areas such as Lower Eastern and Coast has always been low. Western have never voted as a block and Maasai's and Turkana ni 50/50 between CORD and Jubilee.....just saying!


Voter apathy in some of this far flung areas will be significantly changed as the electorate will be motivated by eager Gubernatorial candidates, they will do the donkey work of ensuring every eligible voter turns up to vote.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
McReggae
#87 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 10:08:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
TAZ wrote:
@ Mc Reggae......As Mutahi said, its almost impossible for CORD to get all the swing votes and Voter turn-out in areas such as Lower Eastern and Coast has always been low. Western have never voted as a block and Maasai's and Turkana ni 50/50 between CORD and Jubilee.....just saying! As so many people have said high Voter turn out will be crucial if CORD is to win the elections


Nope, for Jubilee.....why? Overdepedence on two voting demographics yet Kalenjin vote aint assured!!!

Mutahi Ngunyi even claimed that Kalenjins had a voter turnout only 2nd to Kikikuyus....uongo....looking at the counties, Luos were 2nd!!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
poundfoolish
#88 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 10:13:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
TAZ wrote:
@ Mc Reggae......As Mutahi said, its almost impossible for CORD to get all the swing votes and Voter turn-out in areas such as Lower Eastern and Coast has always been low. Western have never voted as a block and Maasai's and Turkana ni 50/50 between CORD and Jubilee.....just saying! As so many people have said high Voter turn out will be crucial if CORD is to win the elections


Guys lets just agree its a tight race and nobody can comfortably say he is ahead with a good margin.

If i were Jubilees think tank.. i'd take Mutahis numbers.. Give Jubilee all the votes as Mutahi has, give the rest to CORD... then start seeing how to chip into that number.. Add GEMA diaspora vote in Mombasa,Western, etc etc..
slash some percentage from N.E and lower Rift.. etc etc

@4architects spreadsheet is a far much better tool to use..

As of now.. RAO has his job cut out to ensure there is a good voter turn out.. especially in round 2 otherwise its 'bye baby bye'
innairobi
#89 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 12:19:04 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2010
Posts: 845
Citizen studio was full of emotions and contradictions last evening discussing the opinion of someone who could not be bothered to appear in studio for a live interrogation. Hii kura ya March 4th. Wacha tu.
All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
Kirika
#90 Posted : Wednesday, February 06, 2013 12:28:34 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/26/2011
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi

Hussein Mohamed was clearly unable to control Dr. Oloo and Johnstone Sakaja.

Attempts to rope in the Chair of IEBC were unanswered.

Overall much as Dr. Oloo kept singing that Sakaja is not a social scientist, he never gave any concrete proof against Mutahi's numbers.

I for one, think Mutahi based the 50% +1 as errenous since its not on registered voters but on actual votes cast.

CORD should be sending guys with basic facts that are convincing to these late night shows.

I had the misfortune of watching Oduor Ongwen being pummeled by Ahmednassir the other day, and it was such a pitiful sight.
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