Wazua
»
Club SK
»
Politics
»
Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2010 Posts: 415
|
McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:McReggae wrote:As expected nobody can punch a whole in the glaring mistakes I am pointing out!!! What you don't seem to get is that Mutahi is mainly focusing on what CORD/Jubilee require to get the 50% +1 vote in the first round. He did not add the Western Vote to CORD because as is expected majority might/will vote for Amani in the first round. He's also highlighted that its very unlikely CORD will be able to get all the swing votes. They might get most of the votes but a good number will end up in Jubilee. Watu kama PK, MK, OK will not have enough numbers to significantly affect the results in the first round....atleast according to him. ThIS IS ALL ABOUT THE FIRST ROUND not what might happen in the run-off. I think @ Liv in a different thread has given you a good example (US Pres. election) on how unreliable opinion polls can be..... You have conveniently igonored the other factors I raised earlier in the thread.... ......let's give it to Mutahi Ngunyi, the new opinion pollster in town, the man who predicted a landslide NO win during the constitutional referendum, the same man who predicted a Mudavadai presidency made in the boardroom in 2013, he who now wants the hague cases to be differed until the suspects are declared winners!!! @McRaegge, i haven't been following the elections closely..just followed opinion polls. But which message resonates well with the intended audience? For Jubilee, you have analogue vs digital, young vs old, change. But i think their most brilliant strategy was coming up with the name Jubilee..i mean everyone is talking about the year of Jubilee including the churches..if this is not serious branding, i don't know what is.. When these guys talk about the digital revolution, they are using teleprompters and ipads when unveiling their manifesto..all the TV stations use the same..so if the message is targeting young voters, they have the upper hand.. Their vehicles are branded..branding is powerful and it sticks with the targeted audience in this case the voter.. Now if we look at Cord, its mostly vitendawili which is so old school.. What is Cord's message? It's not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/20/2007 Posts: 4,432
|
what these people should do is follow in the footsteps of K24 and buy anyone who doesn't agree with them. Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
story teller wrote:McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:McReggae wrote:As expected nobody can punch a whole in the glaring mistakes I am pointing out!!! What you don't seem to get is that Mutahi is mainly focusing on what CORD/Jubilee require to get the 50% +1 vote in the first round. He did not add the Western Vote to CORD because as is expected majority might/will vote for Amani in the first round. He's also highlighted that its very unlikely CORD will be able to get all the swing votes. They might get most of the votes but a good number will end up in Jubilee. Watu kama PK, MK, OK will not have enough numbers to significantly affect the results in the first round....atleast according to him. ThIS IS ALL ABOUT THE FIRST ROUND not what might happen in the run-off. I think @ Liv in a different thread has given you a good example (US Pres. election) on how unreliable opinion polls can be..... You have conveniently igonored the other factors I raised earlier in the thread.... ......let's give it to Mutahi Ngunyi, the new opinion pollster in town, the man who predicted a landslide NO win during the constitutional referendum, the same man who predicted a Mudavadai presidency made in the boardroom in 2013, he who now wants the hague cases to be differed until the suspects are declared winners!!! @McRaegge, i haven't been following the elections closely..just followed opinion polls. But which message resonates well with the intended audience? For Jubilee, you have analogue vs digital, young vs old, change. But i think their most brilliant strategy was coming up with the name Jubilee..i mean everyone is talking about the year of Jubilee including the churches..if this is not serious branding, i don't know what is.. When these guys talk about the digital revolution, they are using teleprompters and ipads when unveiling their manifesto..all the TV stations use the same..so if the message is targeting young voters, they have the upper hand.. Their vehicles are branded..branding is powerful and it sticks with the targeted audience in this case the voter.. Now if we look at Cord, its mostly vitendawili which is so old school.. What is Cord's message? You have now drifted to a whole new topic, not the subject of this thread!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
Deleted!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
|
1)uote=story teller] What is Cord's message?[/quote] Kelele miiingi tuu!.Jubilee will take the votes,Cord can have the entire Kenyan railway network (Not much of it anyway and the newest part was installed in 1904)   Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2010 Posts: 415
|
McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes.... @TAZ, @Storyteller @mkeiyd Mutahi Ngunyi was very selective, when he added the luhya votes, he did not add the other tribes, he added the two interchangeably, very clever of him, show me where he adds luhyas and the so called other'38' tribes......(how do you get 38 tribes once you remove Kikuyus, kambas, luhyas, Embus, merus, luhyas, kalenjins and luos)...this is a very subjective Mutahi!!!! You see jubilants would like to manipulate the opinion polls to suit them, Ipsos site is very detailed, visit and see for yourself, they do follow the IEBC register thus more people are interviewed in counties with more votes registered. Since 2002, the opinion polls have been accurate, I wonder what you think changes this time round. Okay,but even if you gave Cord 60 % of the western vote which is a big if with MDVD running, hawesmake au sio? It's not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 6/25/2010 Posts: 415
|
McReggae wrote:Deleted!!! I also think that Jubilee instead of overeacting emotionally whenever RAO talks about Land should come up with a simple counter strategy.. This is what they should say, "hawa watu wanaongea kila wakati kuhusu mashamba kwani wanataka kuwanyanganya wananchi mashamba yao" and voila you neutralize their message.. Anyways @McReggae my point was that with over 6 million votes already in the bag..add to their message,i think Jubilee is the team to beat.. It's not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
|
story teller wrote:McReggae wrote:Deleted!!! I also think that Jubilee instead of overeacting emotionally whenever RAO talks about Land should come up with a simple counter strategy.. This is what they should say, "hawa watu wanaongea kila wakati kuhusu mashamba kwani wanataka kuwanyanganya wananchi mashamba yao" and voila you neutralize their message.. Anyways @McReggae my point was with over 6 million votes already in the bag..add to their message,i think Jubilee is the team to beat.. Yes they need some counter move, because right now it seems every time land is mentioned, UK and WSR start getting loose motions of the stomach... Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
story teller wrote:McReggae wrote:Deleted!!! I also think that Jubilee instead of overeacting emotionally whenever RAO talks about Land should come up with a simple counter strategy.. This is what they should say, "hawa watu wanaongea kila wakati kuhusu mashamba kwani wanataka kuwanyanganya wananchi mashamba yao" and voila you neutralize their message.. Anyways @McReggae my point was that with over 6 million votes already in the bag..add to their message,i think Jubilee is the team to beat.. It is the 6M votes I dispute in many posts I have put on this thread!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/30/2008 Posts: 6,029
|
Njung'e wrote:1)uote=story teller]
What is Cord's message? Kelele miiingi tuu!.Jubilee will take the votes,Cord can have the entire Kenyan railway network (Not much of it anyway and the newest part was installed in 1904) [/quote] DITTO!!And the lakeside town+Migingo.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Club SK
»
Politics
»
Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|