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Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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As expected nobody can punch a whole in the glaring mistakes I am pointing out!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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Amores wrote:
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.
@Amores, What are your feelings telling you about the swearing in after the second round? Go on and say it here what the duo will do after they are sworn in regard with the constitution not allowing a sitting president to be prosecuted in any court? With the duo not attending court hearings citing constitutional immunity,where does that leave Kenya and the rest of the world? Will they be fighting for the Meru farmers miraa market in Europe? They did promise to do that last week in Meru you know. Please @ Amores, let your feelings out. We need them to turn this country into just,economic powerhouse.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes.... Since 2002, the opinion polls have been accurate, I wonder what you think changes this time round. "The lead held by the political grouping in favour of the proposed constitution has dropped, a new survey indicates. The poll, released Friday by research firm Synovate, shows the Yes camp drawing 58 per cent of Kenyans to their side, while the No camp registered 22 per cent. A significant 17 per cent are still indecisive with just 12 days to the referendum. The Yes camp support has gone down by four percentage points within one week. A Strategic Research survey released last week put the Yes vote at 62pc, with 20 per cent saying they will reject it altogether. Eighteen per cent of the voters were undecided." http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/bbvfjp/-/index.html
Final referendum result Yes 66.9% No 30.7
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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mkonomtupu wrote:McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes.... Since 2002, the opinion polls have been accurate, I wonder what you think changes this time round. "The lead held by the political grouping in favour of the proposed constitution has dropped, a new survey indicates. The poll, released Friday by research firm Synovate, shows the Yes camp drawing 58 per cent of Kenyans to their side, while the No camp registered 22 per cent. A significant 17 per cent are still indecisive with just 12 days to the referendum. The Yes camp support has gone down by four percentage points within one week. A Strategic Research survey released last week put the Yes vote at 62pc, with 20 per cent saying they will reject it altogether. Eighteen per cent of the voters were undecided." http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/bbvfjp/-/index.html
Final referendum result Yes 66.9% No 30.7 Very much within the prediction of the pollsters considering the undecideds!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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What does Mutahi Ngunyi do nowadays, which institution of repute entertains him. Methinks he was hired to come up with an analysis that favours UHURUTO. I have to give it to UHURUTO, they are fighting very hard to plant seeds of doubt in Mt. kenyans, I have noted that the Mt. Kenyans around me are withdrawing into the Kraal for the siege. Lets meet at the ballot. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/14/2007 Posts: 4,152
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McReggae wrote:As expected nobody can punch a whole in the glaring mistakes I am pointing out!!! What you don't seem to get is that Mutahi is mainly focusing on what CORD/Jubilee require to get the 50% +1 vote in the first round. He did not add the Western Vote to CORD because as is expected majority might/will vote for Amani in the first round. He's also highlighted that its very unlikely CORD will be able to get all the swing votes but if somehow they manage to get ALL of those votes it will still not be enough. They might get most of the votes but a good number will end up in Jubilee..... Watu kama PK, MK, OK will not have enough numbers to significantly affect the results in the first round....atleast according to him. ThIS IS ALL ABOUT THE FIRST ROUND not what might happen in the run-off. I think @ Liv in a different thread has given you a good example (US Pres. election) on how unreliable opinion polls can be.....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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TAZ wrote:McReggae wrote:As expected nobody can punch a whole in the glaring mistakes I am pointing out!!! What you don't seem to get is that Mutahi is mainly focusing on what CORD/Jubilee require to get the 50% +1 vote in the first round. He did not add the Western Vote to CORD because as is expected majority might/will vote for Amani in the first round. He's also highlighted that its very unlikely CORD will be able to get all the swing votes. They might get most of the votes but a good number will end up in Jubilee. Watu kama PK, MK, OK will not have enough numbers to significantly affect the results in the first round....atleast according to him. ThIS IS ALL ABOUT THE FIRST ROUND not what might happen in the run-off. I think @ Liv in a different thread has given you a good example (US Pres. election) on how unreliable opinion polls can be..... You have conveniently igonored the other factors I raised earlier in the thread.... ......let's give it to Mutahi Ngunyi, the new opinion pollster in town, the man who predicted a landslide NO win during the constitutional referendum, the same man who predicted a Mudavadai presidency made in the boardroom in 2013, he who now wants the hague cases to be differed until the suspects are declared winners!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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Amores wrote:
Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.
This is what is giving people sleepless nights  That said no candidate will get 50+1. In round two expect 41 vs 1 strategy and CORD takes it though with a razor thin majority I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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McReggae wrote:mkonomtupu wrote:McReggae wrote:TAZ wrote:@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes.... Since 2002, the opinion polls have been accurate, I wonder what you think changes this time round. "The lead held by the political grouping in favour of the proposed constitution has dropped, a new survey indicates. The poll, released Friday by research firm Synovate, shows the Yes camp drawing 58 per cent of Kenyans to their side, while the No camp registered 22 per cent. A significant 17 per cent are still indecisive with just 12 days to the referendum. The Yes camp support has gone down by four percentage points within one week. A Strategic Research survey released last week put the Yes vote at 62pc, with 20 per cent saying they will reject it altogether. Eighteen per cent of the voters were undecided." http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/bbvfjp/-/index.html
Final referendum result Yes 66.9% No 30.7 Very much within the prediction of the pollsters considering the undecideds!!! Actually the best pollster are Strategic Research their last opinion poll on 31st July 2010 "The latest and last opinion poll by Strategic Research shows the 'Yes' camp would win by 66 per cent of the votes cast were the referendum to be held today. The opinion poll released yesterday showed that 20 per cent of the voters support the ‘No’ camp with nine per cent still undecided on whom to vote for." http://www.standardmedia...2000015061&pageNo=1
On that basis Cord 43% Jubilee 41% but historically the undecided usually swing to the number 2
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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@mkonomtupu, these fellows will not see that, there is a new plollster in town, one Mutahi Ngunyi!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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