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Kabando wa Kabambe
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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If you understand the science of statistics & sampling, population does not mean the population census of Kenya. It means the total number of people from where the sample should be picked.
The registered voters thus become the population from where the sample will be picked by the pollsters for election polls.
However, when the pollster starts looking for this population (registered voters), they are expected to go the bigger population (total people of Kenya census). The first question to a respondent should be ...are you a registered voter?.... if the respondent says YES...then he becomes part of the population of the poll - REGISTERED VOTERS (and could be part of the sample also...if he / she was picked as per the sample rules.)
IPSOS says that 95% of the respondents they called...answered YES to this question. They expected a less percentage than 95% given that only 30% of the population census are registered as voters. This made them conclude some Kenyans could be cheating.
My apologies if I confused you...with the use of the word population.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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You did not, you in a hole and still digging coz you put even my one year old kid a potential interviewee....open your eyes!!!!....don't try too hard, the same methodology has been used before with similar results, stop expounding on a matter you don't understand!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Liv wrote:Kabando highlighted the differences in regional results between the pollsters... sometimes the difference in a region was higher than 10%.
Another point is that .... the pollsters have been changing the sampling methodology along the way in the last 3 weeks after his criticism. e.g. the first poll did not have the data by counties which was added later. Sample sizes have been changed along the way too.
IPSOS agreed that the differences in regions between the pollsters could not be avoided as the sample size per region is too small and hence the margin error must be high.
IPSOS also agreed that the polls could be misleading with respect to gender and age of the sample. The IEBC has not released details about the age and gender of registered voters per region. So each pollster is making their assumptions with regard to this...which could be very different from the actual population of registered voters.
The pollsters owned up that the 95% of people they contacted claimed to be registered voters yet only 30% of the country population is registered. (14 / 40 million). That means there could be an issue of respondents cheating they are registered when they are not.... thus affecting the poll results. some Kenyans in the poll are definitely cheating.
The above are real issues with the polls. Others factors like the terrain of Africa and illiteracy levels make it difficult to have credible polls.
In USA where the communities are more homogeneous and literate, you would expect pools to be precise and better, yet in 2012 the polls were showing a dead heat between Obama and Romney (too close to call) up to the last minute. Yet the final election results was like a landslide for Obama.... quite different from what the polls were showing.
That is why I have been saying none of the poll results could be relied on. So I support what Kabando was saying. These poll results could not be relied upon. Why are you following Kabando into that hole, the disparities between pollsters at regional level may exist but at the end of the day when they tally their national polls, they arrive at the same conclusions at the national level so let it go. Its like trying to argue that the polls prediction of a UHURUTO sweep in Central is inaccurate. As to those registered, my take is anyone who didn't register is unlikely to again fall into the pollsters net, they are somewhere stuck in some hole. Plus you have to consider that our population is 60% under 18 years of age. Please understand the point before you argue.
IPSOS says they do not have money to get a sample big enough to cover each region with a sample size big enough to give a lower margin of error.
e.g. Infotrack gives Jubilee 76% of vote in Central. Strategic gave Jubilee 83% in Central.... a difference of 7%. This difference was much higher in some regions for different coalitions...some even more than 10%... and it is an issue. If the polls were taken the same period and used the same sample size....by 3 different companies... what is causing such huge discrepancies?....Why is the difference so small in some regions for some coalitions and huge for others?... you can not wish this point away.
Please make arguments but make them with understanding.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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McReggae wrote:You did not, you in a hole and still digging coz you put even my one year old kid a potential interviewee....open your eyes!!!!....don't try too hard, the same methodology has been used before with similar results, stop expounding on a matter you don't understand!!! IPSOS are sampling using telephone .... we know we have more than 20 million phone numbers in Kenya and some of them are owned by people who are below 18 years of age.
IPSOS did not say they expected 30% of their respondents to be registered.... but at the same time they did not expect to have 95% of the people who responded to say that they are registered.
I guess you are the one who is arguing with matters that you don't understand.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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I'm now starting to think Kabando wa Kabande is right here with us in wazua!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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McReggae wrote:I'm now starting to think Kabando wa Kabande is right here with us in wazua!!!! Please stop the side shows.... argue your points out with understanding.... not emotions.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Liv wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Liv wrote:Kabando highlighted the differences in regional results between the pollsters... sometimes the difference in a region was higher than 10%.
Another point is that .... the pollsters have been changing the sampling methodology along the way in the last 3 weeks after his criticism. e.g. the first poll did not have the data by counties which was added later. Sample sizes have been changed along the way too.
IPSOS agreed that the differences in regions between the pollsters could not be avoided as the sample size per region is too small and hence the margin error must be high.
IPSOS also agreed that the polls could be misleading with respect to gender and age of the sample. The IEBC has not released details about the age and gender of registered voters per region. So each pollster is making their assumptions with regard to this...which could be very different from the actual population of registered voters.
The pollsters owned up that the 95% of people they contacted claimed to be registered voters yet only 30% of the country population is registered. (14 / 40 million). That means there could be an issue of respondents cheating they are registered when they are not.... thus affecting the poll results. some Kenyans in the poll are definitely cheating.
The above are real issues with the polls. Others factors like the terrain of Africa and illiteracy levels make it difficult to have credible polls.
In USA where the communities are more homogeneous and literate, you would expect pools to be precise and better, yet in 2012 the polls were showing a dead heat between Obama and Romney (too close to call) up to the last minute. Yet the final election results was like a landslide for Obama.... quite different from what the polls were showing.
That is why I have been saying none of the poll results could be relied on. So I support what Kabando was saying. These poll results could not be relied upon. Why are you following Kabando into that hole, the disparities between pollsters at regional level may exist but at the end of the day when they tally their national polls, they arrive at the same conclusions at the national level so let it go. Its like trying to argue that the polls prediction of a UHURUTO sweep in Central is inaccurate. As to those registered, my take is anyone who didn't register is unlikely to again fall into the pollsters net, they are somewhere stuck in some hole. Plus you have to consider that our population is 60% under 18 years of age. Please understand the point before you argue.
IPSOS says they do not have money to get a sample big enough to cover each region with a sample size big enough to give a lower margin of error.
e.g. Infotrack gives Jubilee 76% of vote in Central. Strategic gave Jubilee 83% in Central.... a difference of 7%. This difference was much higher in some regions for different coalitions...some even more than 10%... and it is an issue. If the polls were taken the same period and used the same sample size....by 3 different companies... what is causing such huge discrepancies?....Why is the difference so small in some regions for some coalitions and huge for others?... you can not wish this point away.
Please make arguments but make them with understanding. Remember the sample is a national poll, not a regional or county poll. So focus on the national poll numbers. And by the way, the margin of error cuts both ways so no party benefits from them. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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Liv wrote:McReggae wrote:I'm now starting to think Kabando wa Kabande is right here with us in wazua!!!! Please stop the side shows.... argue your points out with understanding.... not emotions. You writing like someone who is about to cry, please push away the laptop lest a tear drops on the keyboard. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Liv wrote:McReggae wrote:I'm now starting to think Kabando wa Kabande is right here with us in wazua!!!! Please stop the side shows.... argue your points out with understanding.... not emotions. You will never get the points coz of you formed opinion, I have watched Kabando refuse to get them from Angela and yesterday from Wolf, trust me I don't want that pain!!!! ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Liv wrote:Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:Liv wrote:Kabando highlighted the differences in regional results between the pollsters... sometimes the difference in a region was higher than 10%.
Another point is that .... the pollsters have been changing the sampling methodology along the way in the last 3 weeks after his criticism. e.g. the first poll did not have the data by counties which was added later. Sample sizes have been changed along the way too.
IPSOS agreed that the differences in regions between the pollsters could not be avoided as the sample size per region is too small and hence the margin error must be high.
IPSOS also agreed that the polls could be misleading with respect to gender and age of the sample. The IEBC has not released details about the age and gender of registered voters per region. So each pollster is making their assumptions with regard to this...which could be very different from the actual population of registered voters.
The pollsters owned up that the 95% of people they contacted claimed to be registered voters yet only 30% of the country population is registered. (14 / 40 million). That means there could be an issue of respondents cheating they are registered when they are not.... thus affecting the poll results. some Kenyans in the poll are definitely cheating.
The above are real issues with the polls. Others factors like the terrain of Africa and illiteracy levels make it difficult to have credible polls.
In USA where the communities are more homogeneous and literate, you would expect pools to be precise and better, yet in 2012 the polls were showing a dead heat between Obama and Romney (too close to call) up to the last minute. Yet the final election results was like a landslide for Obama.... quite different from what the polls were showing.
That is why I have been saying none of the poll results could be relied on. So I support what Kabando was saying. These poll results could not be relied upon. Why are you following Kabando into that hole, the disparities between pollsters at regional level may exist but at the end of the day when they tally their national polls, they arrive at the same conclusions at the national level so let it go. Its like trying to argue that the polls prediction of a UHURUTO sweep in Central is inaccurate. As to those registered, my take is anyone who didn't register is unlikely to again fall into the pollsters net, they are somewhere stuck in some hole. Plus you have to consider that our population is 60% under 18 years of age. Please understand the point before you argue.
IPSOS says they do not have money to get a sample big enough to cover each region with a sample size big enough to give a lower margin of error.
e.g. Infotrack gives Jubilee 76% of vote in Central. Strategic gave Jubilee 83% in Central.... a difference of 7%. This difference was much higher in some regions for different coalitions...some even more than 10%... and it is an issue. If the polls were taken the same period and used the same sample size....by 3 different companies... what is causing such huge discrepancies?....Why is the difference so small in some regions for some coalitions and huge for others?... you can not wish this point away.
Please make arguments but make them with understanding. Remember the sample is a national poll, not a regional or county poll. So focus on the national poll numbers. And by the way, the margin of error cuts both ways so no party benefits from them. @Obi,
I have been consistent... I do not believe in these polls. I have given my reasons... even before Kabando came into the scene...I disagreed with them. I have given a number of reasons why they are cannot be relied upon.... if you want to argue, please let us discuss these issues.
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