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Mutahi Ngunyi on the Opinion Polls
KulaRaha
#11 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:22:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.







March4: Uhuru wins
March5: uncle Muhoho and Mummy Ngina take over GOK
March6: All critical appointments end up with GEMA candidates
March10: Ruto cries foul, but is told to be happy with Ministry of Fisheries, Gender and Sports
April10: Ruto goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April11: Uhuru goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April12: Mumhoho and Ngina now run Kenya, ala 1970's Kenyatta style
May10: all NSE listed companies are advised they have "new" shareholders

And the movie continues...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
story teller
#12 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:41:45 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 415
McReggae wrote:
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.






Nope, he gives CORD other votes but Amani remains with Western, check again!!!!!


@McReggae, hebu let's look at those numbers again. Numbers don't lie.

Disclaimer..i haven't decided on who to vote for..

According to IEBC,we have slightly over 14 million registered voters.

According to Ngunyi, even if all the other 38 tribes voted for cord, RAO would still have around 6.2 million votes !! (assuming MDVD runs away with the western vote-not possible of course).

I think this scenario changes everything man..Cord needs to change its strategy..
It's not hard to make decisions when you know what your values are.
TAZ
#13 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:43:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/14/2007
Posts: 4,152
@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes....
mkeiyd
#14 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:46:47 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 1,182
His analysis makes sense until RAO is kicked to 3rd position.
What @mcreggae should be doing, is mobilizing Cordeshians to come out in large numbers come March 4th.

One thing i didn't get from Mutahi is, why is he saying the trials should be deferred until the Hague duo have been declared winners?
josiah33
#15 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:47:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/27/2011
Posts: 1,777
KulaRaha wrote:
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.







March4: Uhuru wins
March5: uncle Muhoho and Mummy Ngina take over GOK
March6: All critical appointments end up with GEMA candidates
March10: Ruto cries foul, but is told to be happy with Ministry of Fisheries, Gender and Sports
April10: Ruto goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April11: Uhuru goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April12: Mumhoho and Ngina now run Kenya, ala 1970's Kenyatta style
May10: all NSE listed companies are advised they have "new" shareholders

And the movie continues...

How is that even possible?
McReggae
#16 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:50:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
TAZ wrote:
@ Mc Reggae, Mutahi clearly says (3:24) that its wrong to assume that all Luhya's will vote for Amani but even if you give CORD all of the votes in Western, Jubilee will still have a lead of almost 1m votes....


@TAZ, @Storyteller @mkeiyd
Mutahi Ngunyi was very selective, when he added the luhya votes, he did not add the other tribes, he added the two interchangeably, very clever of him, show me where he adds luhyas and the so called other'38' tribes......(how do you get 38 tribes once you remove Kikuyus, kambas, luhyas, Embus, merus, luhyas, kalenjins and luos)...this is a very subjective Mutahi!!!!

You see jubilants would like to manipulate the opinion polls to suit them, Ipsos site is very detailed, visit and see for yourself, they do follow the IEBC register thus more people are interviewed in counties with more votes registered.

Since 2002, the opinion polls have been accurate, I wonder what you think changes this time round.
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
KulaRaha
#17 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 10:51:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
josiah33 wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.







March4: Uhuru wins
March5: uncle Muhoho and Mummy Ngina take over GOK
March6: All critical appointments end up with GEMA candidates
March10: Ruto cries foul, but is told to be happy with Ministry of Fisheries, Gender and Sports
April10: Ruto goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April11: Uhuru goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April12: Mumhoho and Ngina now run Kenya, ala 1970's Kenyatta style
May10: all NSE listed companies are advised they have "new" shareholders

And the movie continues...

How is that even possible?


Very possible given the President will be in a drunken stupor...what happened to Kibaki's State House after the accident in 02?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
josiah33
#18 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 11:06:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/27/2011
Posts: 1,777
KulaRaha wrote:
josiah33 wrote:
KulaRaha wrote:
Amores wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???


Actually he gives CORD all the votes from western, at some point and then observes that Jubilee gets a 1M votes ahead of CORD.
Yes it has been discussed here before that all those Votes in Kiambu sio za jubilee zote, hiyo pia tumekubali.
What is happening here is an awakening that Uhuruto leadership is staring at us. I believe Uhuru will be president of this nation.
To usher in the younger generation, I see that when Uhuru takes it, there is hope of building a true nation as opposed to a RAO presidency. I do not have evidence; it is just a feeling- before I am stoned.







March4: Uhuru wins
March5: uncle Muhoho and Mummy Ngina take over GOK
March6: All critical appointments end up with GEMA candidates
March10: Ruto cries foul, but is told to be happy with Ministry of Fisheries, Gender and Sports
April10: Ruto goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April11: Uhuru goes Hague and cant return until Christmas.
April12: Mumhoho and Ngina now run Kenya, ala 1970's Kenyatta style
May10: all NSE listed companies are advised they have "new" shareholders

And the movie continues...

How is that even possible?


Very possible given the President will be in a drunken stupor...what happened to Kibaki's State House after the accident in 02?

Enlighten me please- were Lucy and Jimmy calling the shots at State House?
KulaRaha
#19 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 11:08:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
You miss the point Sir...we all know Kibaki wasn't calling any shots...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
madollar
#20 Posted : Tuesday, February 05, 2013 11:16:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/17/2009
Posts: 2,040
Location: GA
poundfoolish wrote:
jyo wrote:
McReggae wrote:
TAZ wrote:
McReggae wrote:
Mutahi Ngunyi has just become funny:
1. He gives Jubilee 100% Kalenjin vote but CORD gets 80% Kamba vote.
2. Starts with Madvd at 100% luhya and sticks with it throughout his hypothesis.
3. Assumes places like Kiambu are homogeneously Kikuyu.
4. Assumes GEMA ni kitu moja.
5. Even conteplates Madvd's Amani beating CORD

.....what happened to this man? tukutane kwa debe!!!!


Yaani you seriously think RAO will get significant votes from GEMA or Kiambu????


@TAZ:
Those huge numbers in places like Kiambi include people who traditionally voted ushagoo but will now be in nairobi, this has been discussed here before.
Yeah this time round Raila will get more GEMA votes than he got in 2007.

Mutahi also completely knocks out PK and MK

....what about the other points???

me thinks Mutahi is growing too old for analysis he anlyses with a locked mind


Mutahi is pointing out the mere truths..
Dont forget to add 50% of Nairobi's votes to Jubilee

The problem as i've pointed out before is that Jubillee are already stretched to the maximum.. any wins from the other areas of Kenya are nothing more than 5% of that vote..

In the same breath CORD has to work on voter turn out but can still maneuver and make inroads elsewhere .eg the RV vote, the Western Vote (minus one plus one arithmetics).. but can still raid Rift valley.. Western... etc etc..

Its a tight race and the winner will be by a 'phewks' whisker.. The lose will be a bitter one


you are right at most the GEMA vote is 5M infact add another block vote and a half and its a slam dunk
if OAR looses its his supporters who will have failed him in jubilee strong holds registration was over 99% percent while in CORD it hovered around 50-70%
had IEBC managed to register 18million voters as it had planned it would have been very difficult for UK to win as he cannot pass the 8M voters mark .


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