Wazua
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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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'Back to work' demand & broad base rate cuts (stimulus) are known credible factors. All else, is all else. Thank goodness for Hydro too.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2012 Posts: 1,461 Location: Ngong Forest
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dunkang wrote:Ngong wrote:Check the rates at CBD Forex opposite Nation,they might be almost there! what are going rates there?  Always the highest, when in country l go there,last change they gave me @87.45 wonderful!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly. Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/24/2013 Posts: 325
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ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? What's the bottom line my brothers? Last time this happened I speculated too much and lost. This time am biting my nails to death. I want to be on top of this.....trade now at $88 or give it another 2 months and see...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ChumsQuest wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:ChessMaster wrote:hisah wrote:@new - is inflation expected to spike in the next 2-3 months? I don't see the signs yet. Bank lending rates still high with minimal loan growth despite a large chop on CBR. The econ is still squeaking along to spark demand overheat. At most I see the $/KES @90/- which is acceptable as per the large CBR slashing since 2012. CBK just need to ensue that the slid is orderly.
Were it not for that ugly current account, CBK would have let the KES weaken since this is the theme globally as currency wars become the latest war. Devaluation is en vogue in the central bank fashion world post GFC! How would a weak shilling help Kenya?How would it boost exports or help the current account? As per the bold statement the assumption is if the CA was healthy, a slight devaluation during a global econ slump makes it easier to boost your exports revenues. At the same time checks have to be in place to guard against unproductive importation. I agree,that CA is putting us in a compromising situation. Personally I believe CBK is trying to work on imports but what I'm concerned with is the relationship of debt and the exchange rate.How do you see it? What's the bottom line my brothers? Last time this happened I speculated too much and lost. This time am biting my nails to death. I want to be on top of this.....trade now at $88 or give it another 2 months and see... @chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 1,182
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hisah wrote:
@chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm.
Did you say max $ rate of 90? That would be like Christmas come early. May the gods of currencies save the KES and may Kenyans vote wisely and peacefully.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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mkeiyd wrote:hisah wrote:
@chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm.
Did you say max $ rate of 90? That would be like Christmas come early. May the gods of currencies save the KES and may Kenyans vote wisely and peacefully. CB sold around $100m a few days I heard and markets are still tight. Not seeing the rate crossing 90 either unless there's election violence. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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Scubidu wrote:mkeiyd wrote:hisah wrote:
@chums - stop speculating. Understand the tea leaves involved in currency fundamentals - BoP, inflation, econ trends, CB funding rate - CBR etc. Then decide on the trade. 2011 was the KES slamdown party. I don't see that party now unless the election goes haywire. Max $ rate should be 90 since the econ is on recovery.
@chess - foreign debt interest would balloon if $ rate spiked wildly. CBK & treasury are aware of that. As @mainat stated, if treasury cant hold back the tide in comes IMF dollars. And that is a vicious cycle. However, with the expected mining boom this is not a big issue due to the mining windfall over the longterm.
Did you say max $ rate of 90? That would be like Christmas come early. May the gods of currencies save the KES and may Kenyans vote wisely and peacefully. CB sold around $100m a few days I heard and markets are still tight. Not seeing the rate crossing 90 either unless there's election violence. This is now when man looks deep into himself. Would you hope/pray/make violence, that would lead to loss of life, just to make a buck?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2012 Posts: 1,461 Location: Ngong Forest
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Sasa hii ni High tech! sishiki kitu.
Kwaheri!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 971 Location: Home
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Inflation reverse - http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/29yb84z/-/index.html Inflation has based out a month before elections... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2012 Posts: 1,461 Location: Ngong Forest
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 @Ngaatu can write a novel!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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I'm waiting to see the impact of capital gains tax if they choose to implement it.Bombshell. Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Headache for CBK - http://www.theeastafrica.../-/bql64dz/-/index.html The econ is still weak, what more did the analysts expect - nothing new in this article. BoP is badly positioned since 2011, lending rates still sky high, econ still on handbrake as per tax revenues etc. Liquidity is still tight in KE and it's election time! Liquidity & forex controls have put a heavy lid on the forex game. Otherwise this would be the game & not equities & bonds. In the forex world it's futile to fight the CB. They can change the game rules anytime when things get 'elephant' aka desperado time. CBK is still in that corner, if threatened, out comes the bazooka. With tight liquidity you run out of ammo fast against the rogue CB. Your bets against the CB get smoked out in a flash. This is why I don't see the $ or forex game a sure bet at this point. My target for the $ is 90 max. Don't see it going past that unless an outsize market event is triggered by the CB or bogus election turmoil. And even if such an event occurs (God forbid), the forex black market (for max gains) is no go zone if you don't know your way... The sad thing is guys are hoping the $ spikes beyond 100 to get their $ bets fat gains, yet this will bomb out the same econ they depend on... Vicious cycle $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Watching Brent nearing $120 - Not good. Thank goodness for the Hydro and when Long rains check in Q2 then food & elec. generation fuel imports will be out the Import Bill equation.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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CBK tightens liquidity ahead of polls - http://www.businessdaily...6/-/lvk9nl/-/index.html
A desperate CB this one. No need to fight it trying to short the KES. They'll pull all the stops whichever way possible. I still do not advocate playing against the KES, stocks are a better bet. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/23/2009 Posts: 1,626
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hisah wrote:CBK tightens liquidity ahead of polls - http://www.businessdaily...6/-/lvk9nl/-/index.html
A desperate CB this one. No need to fight it trying to short the KES. They'll pull all the stops whichever way possible. I still do not advocate playing against the KES, stocks are a better bet. For me if the shilling weakens foreigner appetite increases.What are your thoughts? Uncertainty is certain.Let go
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