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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
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Lolest!
#31 Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2013 7:56:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
@limanika, I like your thoughts.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
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tassia
#32 Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2013 10:32:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/25/2011
Posts: 368
Location: Nairobi
A very good analysis by Architect and very intelligent observations from McReggae, Lolest! and Limanika.

This register contains living people who registered to vote. Architect, you could try by allocating about 95% turnout for all counties and also give Kiambu a lower percentage for Jubilee. Those Voters in Kiambu like Nairobi includes those who registered at the places of work (or their current temporary residence). This explains why the registration was more than 100%. The many educational institutions in Nairobi and Kiambu should help justify this. I expect Muranga and Kirinyaga to have more % votes for Jubilee than Kiambu. Please adjust Jubilles downwards for Kiambu. I looked through the % registration of Nyeri and noted that Nyeri town and Maathira had more than 100% registration and I think Dedan Kimathi and Karatina Universities could explain some of this. The effect in Kiambu is much bigger on this than in Nyeri.

Remember also that Kibaki got quite a number of votes from Kamba's who were sure Kalonzo would never win and especially in Nairobi. This time, I have a feeling they are voting Raila.

Not that I am Raila's supporter or even Uhuru's but I have always believed in working from a worst case scenario before counting my chicken...or is it eggs? I also have a very strong feeling that Jubilee supporters are seriously under estimating Cord.

It is wise for supporters of both parties started to prepare how to live with the other parties win......And especially Uhuru's Supporters
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Amores
#33 Posted : Wednesday, January 30, 2013 10:36:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/25/2011
Posts: 2,103
Location: Nrb
@tassia,you observe right. Kiambu is not full jubilee as you put it.
However,we are not underestimating cord,we are serious,they are a worthy opponent,that is why are on the campaign trail.

We know we need every vote. jubilee oyee !
I am happy
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 30, 2013 10:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
a4architect.com
#34 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 11:53:12 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Lolest! wrote:
a4architect.com wrote:
Lolest! wrote:
@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have.


Nope. Am not part of any team. These are my own anayses after getting tired of being taken circles by Pollsters.
Email me the excel to info@a4architect.com or

Sent, 2 pdf 1 excel

@Laughing out loudly. Received it. Its quite complicated to peruse through. Let me add it to the docs so that others can give their thoughts.
Its here
http://www.a4architect.c...ic/elections-2013-excel/
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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a4architect.com
#35 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 12:29:56 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
tassia wrote:
A very good analysis by Architect and very intelligent observations from McReggae, Lolest! and Limanika.

This register contains living people who registered to vote. Architect, you could try by allocating about 95% turnout for all counties and also give Kiambu a lower percentage for Jubilee. Those Voters in Kiambu like Nairobi includes those who registered at the places of work (or their current temporary residence). This explains why the registration was more than 100%. The many educational institutions in Nairobi and Kiambu should help justify this. I expect Muranga and Kirinyaga to have more % votes for Jubilee than Kiambu. Please adjust Jubilles downwards for Kiambu. I looked through the % registration of Nyeri and noted that Nyeri town and Maathira had more than 100% registration and I think Dedan Kimathi and Karatina Universities could explain some of this. The effect in Kiambu is much bigger on this than in Nyeri.

Remember also that Kibaki got quite a number of votes from Kamba's who were sure Kalonzo would never win and especially in Nairobi. This time, I have a feeling they are voting Raila.

Not that I am Raila's supporter or even Uhuru's but I have always believed in working from a worst case scenario before counting my chicken...or is it eggs? I also have a very strong feeling that Jubilee supporters are seriously under estimating Cord.

It is wise for supporters of both parties started to prepare how to live with the other parties win......And especially Uhuru's Supporters


I have changed the % in Kiambu for Jubilee to 80%. Jubilee still wins with a very slight margin.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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accelriskconsult
#36 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 12:56:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
Kisii overwheminly voted for Kibaki.

1.This time round 80% of the Kisii vote will go to CORD. You need to factor that in.

2. The need to vote for governors will increase turn out across the country.

3. The turn out in Juja and other parts of Central cannot be replicated
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a4architect.com
#37 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 1:01:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@accelrisk. Check the document again. Kisii is filled in as 5% Jubilee and 95% CORD.
I have reduced Juja/Kiambu to 80% Jubilee and 20% CORD with turnout of 82.1% .
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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nakujua
#38 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 1:17:13 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/17/2009
Posts: 3,583
Location: Kenya
the communities behind jubilee have the numbers, if they can get the turnout in their strongholds high - this will be a first round win.
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poundfoolish
#39 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 2:47:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
nakujua wrote:
the communities behind jubilee have the numbers, if they can get the turnout in their strongholds high - this will be a first round win.


And i still beg to ask.. who is in the RV on the ground..
Hii Kura ya North and mid Rift... i doubt it alot
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Jaina
#40 Posted : Thursday, January 31, 2013 2:53:41 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/13/2008
Posts: 558
Moi and Kanu are supporting MM. In Rift Valley, the less the Chupilii gets the better for Cord Deffect.

Numbers dont lie, come 2nd round it will be tight ballgame
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