But all the same ,tuko pamoja

Previous elections depended on cummulative periods of taking the voters card, this time round all the registered voters just took the cards the other day......expect a higher turnout compared to previous elections!!!!

Departure of Madvd, entry of Kalonzo net effect is gain given that Raila still retains a lot of support from Western.

Sent, 2 pdf 1 excel

ditto! esp on the urnout in this election being higher than in previous elections

[quote=a4architect.com]By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below

http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/[/quote]
Your spreadsheet looks to me like what would happen during run-off without ICC factor.
Round 1- remove 10% from uhuru. Some of his base will vote pk while others will abstain.
Turn out in round 2 will depend on what ICC issue will turn out, but the odds slightly favour RAO in my view.
Though I will note vote Railonzo (for 2007 PEV reasons, 82 coup and loss of kibaki years 2003-2005, maize scandal, mollases, nyong'o reasons), I think that it is not a catastrophe for Kenya to have Odinga Presidency at this point in time. In my view this will erase the ‘historical injustices’ to Luo community whether real or imagined. The new constitution having been enacted means Raila cannot implement any radical form of majimbo, while a Jubilee parliament will check the executive. Uhuruto still have a chance to seek presidency even if they stay in Hague for the next 10 years. That’s after Railonzo and PK have done their terms.

A very good analysis by Architect and very intelligent observations from McReggae, Lolest! and Limanika.

This register contains living people who registered to vote. Architect, you could try by allocating about 95% turnout for all counties and also give Kiambu a lower percentage for Jubilee. Those Voters in Kiambu like Nairobi includes those who registered at the places of work (or their current temporary residence). This explains why the registration was more than 100%. The many educational institutions in Nairobi and Kiambu should help justify this. I expect Muranga and Kirinyaga to have more % votes for Jubilee than Kiambu. Please adjust Jubilles downwards for Kiambu. I looked through the % registration of Nyeri and noted that Nyeri town and Maathira had more than 100% registration and I think Dedan Kimathi and Karatina Universities could explain some of this. The effect in Kiambu is much bigger on this than in Nyeri.

Remember also that Kibaki got quite a number of votes from Kamba's who were sure Kalonzo would never win and especially in Nairobi. This time, I have a feeling they are voting Raila.

Not that I am Raila's supporter or even Uhuru's but I have always believed in working from a worst case scenario before counting my chicken...or is it eggs? I also have a very strong feeling that Jubilee supporters are seriously under estimating Cord.

It is wise for supporters of both parties started to prepare how to live with the other parties win......And especially Uhuru's Supporters

@. Received it. Its quite complicated to peruse through. Let me add it to the docs so that others can give their thoughts.
Its here
http://www.a4architect.c...ic/elections-2013-excel/

Kisii overwheminly voted for Kibaki.

1.This time round 80% of the Kisii vote will go to CORD. You need to factor that in.

2. The need to vote for governors will increase turn out across the country.

3. The turn out in Juja and other parts of Central cannot be replicated

the communities behind jubilee have the numbers, if they can get the turnout in their strongholds high - this will be a first round win.

Moi and Kanu are supporting MM. In Rift Valley, the less the Chupilii gets the better for Cord Deffect.

Numbers dont lie, come 2nd round it will be tight ballgame