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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
Rank: Member Joined: 3/12/2008 Posts: 215
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@Architect. I like your analysis and here are the reasons. I do not expect the turnout to vary much from that in 2007 except in Nairobi where this time around some voters who had registered up country in 2007 are now registered in Nairobi. However, as the pollsters are predicting I expect Jubilee to gunner at least 40% of the votes in the county. Second, Uhuru is inheriting the Mt. Kenya voting brock from Kibaki intact despite those other small contenders (we can call them pretenders!!) who are also running for presidency in the region. On the other hand, Mudavadi and Ruto’s departure from ODM has greatly compromised OARs popularity in the vote rich brocks’ of rift-valley (which is now more jubilee) and Western. OARs merger with Kalonzo is certainly not going to help him make up for what he has lost by parting ways with Ruto and Mudavadi. Using provincial data of registered voters and putting into account the above observations my estimates show that Jubilee might take it during the first round with 52% of the votes.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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kimiri wrote:@Architect. I like your analysis and here are the reasons. I do not expect the turnout to vary much from that in 2007 except in Nairobi where this time around some voters who had registered up country in 2007 are now registered in Nairobi. However, as the pollsters are predicting I expect Jubilee to gunner at least 40% of the votes in the county. Second, Uhuru is inheriting the Mt. Kenya voting brock from Kibaki intact despite those other small contenders (we can call them pretenders!!) who are also running for presidency in the region. On the other hand, Mudavadi and Ruto’s departure from ODM has greatly compromised OARs popularity in the vote rich brocks’ of rift-valley (which is now more jubilee) and Western. OARs merger with Kalonzo is certainly not going to help him make up for what he has lost by parting ways with Ruto and Mudavadi. Using provincial data of registered voters and putting into account the above observations my estimates show that Jubilee might take it during the first round with 52% of the votes.  But all the same ,tuko pamoja I am happy
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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madollar wrote:Kirika wrote:
I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...
kiambu county will cancel out nairobi being home ground of UK turnout will be over 90% Given history, Kiambu may even turnout 140% LOL Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Previous elections depended on cummulative periods of taking the voters card, this time round all the registered voters just took the cards the other day......expect a higher turnout compared to previous elections!!!! Departure of Madvd, entry of Kalonzo net effect is gain given that Raila still retains a lot of support from Western. ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@mcreggae, turnout in the 2010 referendum is very similar to the 2007 one. Very high numbers from Nyanza, Central and RV provinces then the rest follow. Check here http://en.wikipedia.org/...tional_referendum,_2010
Voter turnout 2010 72.18% Voter turnout 2007 69% http://www.idea.int/vt/c...view.cfm?CountryCode=KE
I dont see any miracles happening in March. Average turnout will still be between 68 to 73% with high turnout from Nyanza, RV and Central. Kitui Turnout in 2007 was 65% and this was when Kalonzo was running for President. Now he is running for VP so expect more voter apathy. The Coast, N Eastern, Eastern voters see no reason to brace the hot sun during voting day since their stakes are not high. This time round, Central and RV will have unusually high turnout coz of the Hague issue,very high stakes. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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a4architect.com wrote:Lolest! wrote:@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have. Nope. Am not part of any team. These are my own anayses after getting tired of being taken circles by Pollsters. Email me the excel to info@a4architect.com or Sent, 2 pdf 1 excel
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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a4architect.com wrote:
The Coast, N Eastern, Eastern voters see no reason to brace the hot sun during voting day since their stakes are not high.
 wacha bwana!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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McReggae wrote:Previous elections depended on cummulative periods of taking the voters card, this time round all the registered voters just took the cards the other day......expect a higher turnout compared to previous elections!!!!
Departure of Madvd, entry of Kalonzo net effect is gain given that Raila still retains a lot of support from Western. ditto! esp on the urnout in this election being higher than in previous elections
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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madollar wrote:Kirika wrote:
I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...
kiambu county will cancel out nairobi being home ground of UK turnout will be over 90% I don't think so. Kiambu has 860,716 voters. The next most populous county in central is Murang'a at 457,000, a difference of over 400,000 votes! Point is, Kiambu is heavily urbanised with Githurai 45, Ruiru, Juja, Thika, Kiambu, Banana-Ruaka-Gachie area, Kabete, Uthiru-Kinoo-Kikuyu area being urban/peri-urban. People didn't get time to register in shags as they would have wanted, remember? Do we know where this urban population is from? Muranga, Nyeri, Embu, Nyandarua, Turkana, Migori? I don't know! This being an urbanised county, the cosmopolitan population could mean U huru gets lower percentage at home than in other counties in the mountain!I could be wrong...but Ruiru and Thika constituencies still have over 100,000 voters despite the split from Juja.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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[quote=a4architect.com]By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/[/quote] Your spreadsheet looks to me like what would happen during run-off without ICC factor. Round 1- remove 10% from uhuru. Some of his base will vote pk while others will abstain. Turn out in round 2 will depend on what ICC issue will turn out, but the odds slightly favour RAO in my view. Though I will note vote Railonzo (for 2007 PEV reasons, 82 coup and loss of kibaki years 2003-2005, maize scandal, mollases, nyong'o reasons), I think that it is not a catastrophe for Kenya to have Odinga Presidency at this point in time. In my view this will erase the ‘historical injustices’ to Luo community whether real or imagined. The new constitution having been enacted means Raila cannot implement any radical form of majimbo, while a Jubilee parliament will check the executive. Uhuruto still have a chance to seek presidency even if they stay in Hague for the next 10 years. That’s after Railonzo and PK have done their terms.
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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
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