wazua Sat, Jun 20, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

5 Pages<1234>»
download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
a4architect.com
#11 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:42:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@muganda. Which doc are you looking at? Use the first one. The voter turnout is as per 2007 election data.

http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/

Feel free to tweak the document as per known parameters such as average voter turnout in past elections e.t.c and give us your results.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Back to top
WWW BLOG
  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:47 PM | Reason: Not specified
Lolest!
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 5:59:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 12,069
Location: Kianjokoma
@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Back to top
  |
a4architect.com
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:02:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate!


true. In case of a runoff, MDVDs voter block moves in to CORD which is already captured in the excel doc. The others are too negligible to have any effect.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Back to top
WWW BLOG
  |
a4architect.com
#14 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:04:25 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
Lolest! wrote:
@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have.


Nope. Am not part of any team. These are my own anayses after getting tired of being taken circles by Pollsters.
Email me the excel to info@a4architect.com or give us a link where we can download and compare.
I got the data from Ipsos synovate website here
http://www.ipsos.co.ke/home/index.php/downloads

The only anomaly i saw was in the total voters.
Ipsos synovate has listed them as per below

www.ipsos.co.ke/spr/down...=SPEC_Survey_Methodology(Jan%202013).pdf

The pdf shows 14,337,399. If you manually add them up with excel, the total comes to 14,338,173. The difference is very minor to make any changes.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Back to top
WWW BLOG
  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:14 PM | Reason: Not specified
muganda
#15 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:12:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Now @a4architect to answer your question, I was using the first file all along. What about giving answers to my observations affecting the numbers:

0) Where does your vote lean? Inherent bias

1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay

2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee

3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord


Nevertheless it's all good. Definite answers Mar 5 - day after election.

Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:13 PM | Reason: Not specified
Amores
#16 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:15:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/25/2011
Posts: 2,103
Location: Nrb
Angelica _ann wrote:
I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate!

Laughing out loudly hope you are still feeling fine
I am happy
Back to top
  |
a4architect.com
#17 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:20:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
muganda wrote:
Now @a4architect to answer your question, I was using the first file all along. What about giving answers to my observations affecting the numbers:

0) Where does your vote lean? Inherent bias

1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay

2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee

3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord


Nevertheless it's all good. Definite answers Mar 5 - day after election.


@muganda
let me answer you
0) Where does your vote lean?
Jubilee.
Inherent bias

1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay
2007 elections.
2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee
This comes automatically considering the 2007 voter turnout. Its impossible to alter this since historically, Nyanza, Central and Rift Valley have the largest turnouts in elections. Its also impossible to alter the % of Jubilee counties since Rift Valley and Central have a large % of counties as per IEBC.
3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord
Sikuelewi. Tumia lugha inaeleweka.

20 of the 47 counties are in Central and Rift Valley. This is approx. 40% of the counties.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Back to top
WWW BLOG
  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 6:25 PM | Reason: Not specified
harrydre
#18 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 9:46:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/10/2008
Posts: 9,131
Location: Kanjo
digitek1 wrote:
I hate to pop the party but no one will get 51% round one. Round 2 is tricky for jubilates

Also these figures assume farasi ni wawili...na kuna punda. even a 3% deduction of figures gonna be significant



My problem with the damn spreadsheet is that you have completely ignored the donkey parties unless these are your run-off numbers, for example you cant have Nairobi shared 40%, 60% Jubilee ODM respectively. You might be surprised PK might take Nairobi first round.Go back and report real numbers first round!
i.am.back!!!!
Back to top
  |
a4architect.com
#19 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 10:27:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/4/2010
Posts: 1,668
Location: nairobi
@harryde. There is a reason the excel doc is open to all for edit. So that people can populate the numbers to their liking. Feel free to edit then post the results hapa hapa we discus.
As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
Back to top
WWW BLOG
  |
poundfoolish
#20 Posted : Tuesday, January 29, 2013 10:29:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
Indeed this is the ideal scenario... i only have a few worries
1. Jubilee are looking at their optimum levels..high voter registration and high voter turnouts..
my problem with that is... apart from vote stealing.. the statistics can only be adjusted downwatds.
In the meantime.. CORD have chitizen pulling out voters in strongholds

2. This RV (KAMATUSA) vote is still giving me jitters.. The youth are jumpy.. anybody older than Ruto will probarbly vote otherwise or abstain..

3. CORDs tally in Wezdern Brovinze is above 50%..its currently at 46%.. id put it at 70% by 4th March..

These my friends is probarbly whats making Pambaa confident
They have room for growth... Jubilee is overstretched
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 10:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
5 Pages<1234>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Club SK Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.