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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below http://www.a4architect.c...ic/elections-2013-excel/As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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[quote=a4architect.com]By factoring in the % turnout, the excel documents give a pretty good idea of who will win the elections. Download here below http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/[/quote] Jubille oyee! Where are those ODM die-hards? Utawaona saa hii. I am happy
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2011 Posts: 211 Location: Nairobi
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I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@amores. The pollstars do not factor in % turnout and also 47 counties. With turnout and counties in the mix, this is how things will pan out. You can tweak the docs to reflect your assumptions to see the overall winner. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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Kirika wrote:
I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...
@kirika. Change it to 70 from your end and see the results. This turnout estimate is as per 2007 voter turnout . As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 2,038 Location: GA
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Kirika wrote:
I differ with your % turnout especially in Nairobi. A turnout of atleast 70% in Nairobi will be possible... And will be a game changer as it may close the gap or widen it...
kiambu county will cancel out nairobi being home ground of UK turnout will be over 90% 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@madollar. You can download and change the % from your end. With 70% nairobi turnout, Jubilee still wins. Counties such as Kisii are at 5% Jubilee vs 95 % Cord in the excel doc. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,930
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I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2010 Posts: 1,797 Location: Kenya
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I hate to pop the party but no one will get 51% round one. Round 2 is tricky for jubilates Also these figures assume farasi ni wawili...na kuna punda. even a 3% deduction of figures gonna be significant I may be wrong..but then I could be right
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,907
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@a4architect, no doubt where your vote leans because your spreadsheet RANDOMLY:
1) gives average of 80% voter turnout in zones where Jubilee carries favour as opposed to 64% for CORD
2) gives Jubilee a majority tally in 42% of the counties in Kenya
3) in the counties where Jubilee leads, you've skewed the vote difference an average 67 percentage points as compared to only 56 points where CORD leads
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@muganda. Which doc are you looking at? Use the first one. The voter turnout is as per 2007 election data. http://www.a4architect.c...c/elections-2013-excel/
Feel free to tweak the document as per known parameters such as average voter turnout in past elections e.t.c and give us your results. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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Angelica _ann wrote:I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate! true. In case of a runoff, MDVDs voter block moves in to CORD which is already captured in the excel doc. The others are too negligible to have any effect. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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Lolest! wrote:@architect, are you part of the jubilee team that drew up their forecasts? Last week, I was forwarded Jubilee projections from a connected Jubilant friend and they are similar to what you have. Nope. Am not part of any team. These are my own anayses after getting tired of being taken circles by Pollsters. Email me the excel to info@a4architect.com or give us a link where we can download and compare. I got the data from Ipsos synovate website here http://www.ipsos.co.ke/home/index.php/downloads
The only anomaly i saw was in the total voters. Ipsos synovate has listed them as per below www.ipsos.co.ke/spr/down...=SPEC_Survey_Methodology(Jan%202013).pdf The pdf shows 14,337,399. If you manually add them up with excel, the total comes to 14,338,173. The difference is very minor to make any changes. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,907
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Now @a4architect to answer your question, I was using the first file all along. What about giving answers to my observations affecting the numbers:
0) Where does your vote lean? Inherent bias
1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay
2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee
3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord
Nevertheless it's all good. Definite answers Mar 5 - day after election.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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Angelica _ann wrote:I agree Jubilee will win round 1 but not with 50+1 as this excel worksheet portrays. there are instances where the potential candidates between OAR and UMK will lose votes to the smaller guys thereby shrinking their overall percentage. tik tok tik tok 4th March here we come to end this debate!  hope you are still feeling fine I am happy
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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muganda wrote:Now @a4architect to answer your question, I was using the first file all along. What about giving answers to my observations affecting the numbers:
0) Where does your vote lean? Inherent bias
1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay
2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee
3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord
Nevertheless it's all good. Definite answers Mar 5 - day after election.
@muganda let me answer you 0) Where does your vote lean? Jubilee. Inherent bias 1) Voter turnout? 2007 elections Okay 2007 elections.2) Majority tally per county? 42% for Jubilee This comes automatically considering the 2007 voter turnout. Its impossible to alter this since historically, Nyanza, Central and Rift Valley have the largest turnouts in elections. Its also impossible to alter the % of Jubilee counties since Rift Valley and Central have a large % of counties as per IEBC.3) Vote difference when party wins county? 67pp Jubilee / 56pp for Cord Sikuelewi. Tumia lugha inaeleweka.20 of the 47 counties are in Central and Rift Valley. This is approx. 40% of the counties. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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digitek1 wrote:I hate to pop the party but no one will get 51% round one. Round 2 is tricky for jubilates
Also these figures assume farasi ni wawili...na kuna punda. even a 3% deduction of figures gonna be significant My problem with the damn spreadsheet is that you have completely ignored the donkey parties unless these are your run-off numbers, for example you cant have Nairobi shared 40%, 60% Jubilee ODM respectively. You might be surprised PK might take Nairobi first round.Go back and report real numbers first round! i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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@harryde. There is a reason the excel doc is open to all for edit. So that people can populate the numbers to their liking. Feel free to edit then post the results hapa hapa we discus. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 2,458 Location: Nairobi
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Indeed this is the ideal scenario... i only have a few worries
1. Jubilee are looking at their optimum levels..high voter registration and high voter turnouts..
my problem with that is... apart from vote stealing.. the statistics can only be adjusted downwatds.
In the meantime.. CORD have chitizen pulling out voters in strongholds
2. This RV (KAMATUSA) vote is still giving me jitters.. The youth are jumpy.. anybody older than Ruto will probarbly vote otherwise or abstain..
3. CORDs tally in Wezdern Brovinze is above 50%..its currently at 46%.. id put it at 70% by 4th March..
These my friends is probarbly whats making Pambaa confident
They have room for growth... Jubilee is overstretched
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download excel doc on elections. More accurate than the polls.
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