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Home About Me Uhuru Kenyatta Emerges as 1st Round Favorite in Kenya’s March 4th Poll
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/9/2007 Posts: 13,095
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/14/2006 Posts: 1,311
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Ken, You have understimated the GEMA registered voters by about 500k. Central has 2.2million, Meru & Embu has 866k, Nakuru, Laikipia, Narok and Kajiado have another 700k (Minimum); Nairobi has about 700k (Minimum Gema registered voters). This makes a total GEMA base of about 4.4million against your estimate of 3.9 million. Uhuru might not only lead in the first round but actually get 50%+1 votes in that first round depending on voter turnout.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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I did a similar analysis using % popularity of a candidate by region using the registered voters assuming an even 80% turnout and Uhuru tops by a margin of kindu 400k votes. i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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I agree with most of what Opalo has to say. I also see Uhuru winning round 1 and losing round 2. The loss in round 2 is given because Musalia, PK n Karua people are mostly anti-Uhuru. That is how Amolo will end up in State Hse and Steve in Karen.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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Lolest! wrote:I agree with most of what Opalo has to say. I also see Uhuru winning round 1 and losing round 2. The loss in round 2 is given because Musalia, PK n Karua people are mostly anti-Uhuru. That is how Amolo will end up in State Hse and Steve in Karen. In the unlikely event that RAO wins,it is not because ati votes za Karua na PK,no,it is because of Mudavadi's votes. Uhuru ndiye Rais watu wazoee. It is Chupillee year ! I am happy
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/12/2008 Posts: 215
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The analysis by Opalo is quite realistic and a UHURUTO win is indeed a possibility. Many Kenyans however do not realize this as pollsters have been projecting an outright OAR win. My worry therefore is what might be the consequences if the ODM loses. It is possible that OAR will first allege that the BVRs were tampered with and then call for mass action. I think the country needs to institute some quality controls on the way these opinion polls are conducted to avert a recurrence of what happened in 2007.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
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Say Uhuru loses, will there be trouble given his closeness to the incumbent? Will they swear him in against wishes of the people? The incumbent has a bad precedence regarding such tabias. Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/21/2008 Posts: 2,490
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kimiri wrote:The analysis by Opalo is quite realistic and a UHURUTO win is indeed a possibility. Many Kenyans however do not realize this as pollsters have been projecting an outright OAR win. My worry therefore is what might be the consequences if the ODM loses. It is possible that OAR will first allege that the BVRs were tampered with and then call for mass action. I think the country needs to institute some quality controls on the way these opinion polls are conducted to avert a recurrence of what happened in 2007. If COARD losses I guarantee you skirmishes in certain parts of this country
He who pays the piper calls the tune! The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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If i were OAR,this are the kind of realist chaps i would wish to have around.Those who will point out when the King is naked.....and fire all those busybodies who are not telling him reality as is on the ground.......i would give this blogger 90%. @Chair, Uhuru will concede and the country will move on.My fear is what happens some other candidate loses.Did i say sometimes back watu waanze gym?  Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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KulaRaha wrote:Say Uhuru loses, will there be trouble given his closeness to the incumbent? Will they swear him in against wishes of the people? The incumbent has a bad precedence regarding such tabias. Uhuru has a history of conceding defeat unlike some other candidates. i.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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This must have jolted some self-believers......rattled!.....why have have i been expecting a comment from baba-sayers in vain?  Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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What do you expect when the heading is so down, home, about me.....excuse me. ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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The best books don't have the nicest covers.Content is everything. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Naturally you enjoy a blog that massages your feelings/ego. ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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Naturally,you enjoy anything negative about Jubilee going by the numerous posts on the same (Helps sooth your ego or the lack of it)......or are you a born sadist then? Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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Sadist .........mmmhhhh.....that's a new one, sio mbaya given your transformation. .....when I grow that UP like 'you' I should nick this s*/t. ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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Saw the analysis that Jubalii has done-down to the constituency level. They estimate they will get 52%. Me thinks the numbers are about 4% higher than the %age they will eventually garner.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/25/2011 Posts: 2,103 Location: Nrb
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Guka and makerege going after each other? Wacheni ! I am happy
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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Amores wrote:Guka and makerege going after each other? Wacheni !
Hatuwachi!!..Dawa ya moto ni moto....and BTW between me and Makerege hakuna mtu ako na mimba!.... wanaume ni kuonana nganja inathira @Lolest, Where can we get that? Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
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@Lolest, jubilee needs a final review on kale votes only then can we compare notes. ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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Home About Me Uhuru Kenyatta Emerges as 1st Round Favorite in Kenya’s March 4th Poll
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